Boise State Broncos (10-2) vs. Baylor Bears (6-6)
December 27, 2016 ( 10:15 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Boise State -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Boise State (40.6-23.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Boise State | Baylor | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 15 | 73 | ||
| Category | Boise State offense | Baylor defense | Baylor offense | Boise State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 7.00 (5) | 5.45 (62) | 5.74 (54) | 4.73 (18) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 484.7 (20) | 444.0 (92) | 501.6 (12) | 363.5 (33) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.03 (16) | 2.06 (58) | 2.45 (48) | 1.86 (40) |
| Category | Boise State offense | Baylor defense | Baylor offense | Boise State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 40.4 (5) | 31.6 (85) | 31.4 (51) | 24.1 (34) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 106.1 (49) | 99.8 (66) | 103.7 (61) | 123.8 (13) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 126.8 (13) | 98.4 (70) | 94.6 (86) | 119.3 (17) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 116.2 (17) | 102.4 (48) | 97.4 (82) | 115.5 (19) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 114.5 (36) | 99.6 (70) | 106.8 (57) | 136.7 (7) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.6 (34) | 102.7 (55) | 93.2 (94) | 118.4 (21) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.8 (13) | 108.3 (45) | 103.1 (65) | 129.4 (11) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.5 (48) | 100.7 (60) | 100.9 (67) | 121.5 (15) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 114.2 (22) | 124.7 (9) | 107.3 (46) | 93.8 (85) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Boise State
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 48 offense vs. No. 126 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 26 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
Baylor
- Run Stuffs (No. 6 offense vs. No. 97 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 38 offense vs. No. 128 defense)
- Field Position (No. 70 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 8 vs. No. 45 )
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 41 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Boise State offense | Baylor defense | Baylor offense | Boise State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.39 (20) | 1.22 (44) | 1.28 (60) | 1.12 (6) |
| EFFICIENCY | 48.3% (14) | 43.1% (75) | 44.5% (40) | 38.3% (31) |
| FIELD POSITION | 26.6 (124) | 29.2 (70) | 29.7 (63) | 27.9 (36) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.4 (6) | 4.4 (61) | 4.4 (80) | 3.9 (26) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Boise State -0.18 (72) Baylor -7.89 (122) |
ACTUAL Boise State -7 (108) Baylor -7 (108) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Boise State offense | Baylor offense |
| Adj. Pace | -3.8 (98) | 14.1 (2) |
| Plays per game | 69.3 (105) | 87.4 (4) |
| Possessions per game | 11.8 (121) | 14.3 (12) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.8% (59) | 60.4% (66) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.5% (105) | 40.6% (25) |
| % of solo tackles | 77.3% (39) | 81.2% (16) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Boise State defense | Baylor defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 60.6% (61) | 65.9% (21) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.3% (99) | 36.1% (50) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 14.9% (85) | 16.6% (44) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 6.8% (112) | 7.4% (104) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.7% (86) | 9.2% (3) |
| PD to INC | 33.1% (64) | 34.1% (56) |
When Boise State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Boise State Offense | Baylor Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 116.2 | 17 | 102.4 | 48 | Boise State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 52.1 | 17 | 48.2 | 77 | Boise State big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.30 | 8 | 0.99 | 40 | Boise State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.08 | 54 | 2.96 | 66 | Boise State |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.8% | 40 | 5.5% | 52 | Boise State |
Passing Downs
| Boise State Offense | Baylor Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 114.5 | 36 | 99.6 | 70 | Boise State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 38.6 | 11 | 31.3 | 70 | Boise State big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.69 | 85 | 1.61 | 95 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.60 | 33 | 3.38 | 82 | Boise State |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.1% | 22 | 8.8% | 38 | Boise State |
When Baylor has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Baylor Offense | Boise State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.4 | 82 | 115.5 | 19 | Boise State big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.9 | 45 | 45.6 | 47 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.10 | 71 | 1.06 | 9 | Boise State big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.30 | 21 | 3.12 | 89 | Baylor big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.8% | 64 | 4.2% | 80 | Baylor |
Passing Downs
| Baylor Offense | Boise State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 106.8 | 57 | 136.7 | 7 | Boise State big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.7 | 31 | 23.7 | 11 | Boise State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.84 | 42 | 1.82 | 19 | Boise State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.06 | 9 | 2.78 | 27 | Baylor |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.4% | 73 | 8.8% | 38 | Boise State |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
