South Florida Bulls (10-2) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6)
December 29, 2016 ( 2:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: South Florida -10.5
S&P+ Projection: South Florida (38.7-24.3)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | South Florida | South Carolina | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 39 | 93 | ||
| Category | South Florida offense | South Carolina defense | South Carolina offense | South Florida defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.91 (8) | 5.37 (55) | 4.90 (111) | 5.65 (76) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 500.2 (13) | 406.1 (65) | 338.4 (116) | 486.4 (120) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.09 (14) | 1.99 (49) | 1.56 (118) | 2.15 (65) |
| Category | South Florida offense | South Carolina defense | South Carolina offense | South Florida defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 41.9 (3) | 28.2 (52) | 20.9 (117) | 34.8 (100) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 124.9 (8) | 94.1 (89) | 90.6 (106) | 90.8 (101) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 114.7 (31) | 104.8 (46) | 84.0 (113) | 97.3 (75) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 122.6 (8) | 102.9 (46) | 86.5 (115) | 89.2 (113) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 106.1 (60) | 93.8 (93) | 91.7 (100) | 116.5 (26) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 136.7 (4) | 93.8 (90) | 89.6 (100) | 96.0 (81) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.2 (32) | 102.9 (58) | 81.4 (124) | 92.0 (96) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.5 (38) | 106.2 (44) | 82.1 (121) | 94.4 (89) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.7 (15) | 102.6 (59) | 98.8 (80) | 93.2 (89) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
South Florida
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
- Field Position (No. 18 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 16 defense vs. No. 100 offense)
- Q1 S&P+ (No. 21 vs. No. 105 )
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 8 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
South Carolina
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 107 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 63 offense vs. No. 76 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 98 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 104 offense vs. No. 108 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 115 offense vs. No. 119 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | South Florida offense | South Carolina defense | South Carolina offense | South Florida defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.56 (1) | 1.17 (20) | 1.19 (101) | 1.20 (32) |
| EFFICIENCY | 45.5% (27) | 44.3% (86) | 38.0% (113) | 44.4% (91) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.5 (30) | 30.1 (86) | 28.0 (104) | 27.1 (18) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.5 (2) | 3.9 (23) | 4.1 (99) | 5.0 (115) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: South Florida 2.58 (45) South Carolina 1.46 (58) |
ACTUAL South Florida 6 (26) South Carolina 10 (9) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | South Florida offense | South Carolina offense |
| Adj. Pace | 0.2 (60) | -5.2 (107) |
| Plays per game | 72.3 (74) | 69.0 (107) |
| Possessions per game | 14.1 (16) | 12.3 (99) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.3% (55) | 61.7% (60) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 55.7% (5) | 31.6% (80) |
| % of solo tackles | 82.7% (13) | 79.5% (25) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | South Florida defense | South Carolina defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.0% (104) | 61.8% (49) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 28.3% (112) | 38.2% (27) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 12.3% (114) | 14.6% (90) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 7.1% (108) | 8.5% (75) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.0% (109) | 6.1% (70) |
| PD to INC | 22.8% (126) | 33.1% (65) |
When South Florida has the ball…
Standard Downs
| South Florida Offense | South Carolina Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 122.6 | 8 | 102.9 | 46 | South Florida |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.5 | 31 | 49.2 | 85 | South Florida big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.52 | 1 | 1.12 | 17 | South Florida |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.57 | 2 | 3.06 | 81 | South Florida big |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.8% | 40 | 5.3% | 54 | South Florida |
Passing Downs
| South Florida Offense | South Carolina Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 106.1 | 60 | 93.8 | 93 | South Florida |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.8 | 34 | 33.2 | 88 | South Florida big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.70 | 83 | 1.51 | 65 | South Carolina |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.38 | 53 | 4.03 | 124 | South Florida big |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.5% | 59 | 5.4% | 108 | South Florida |
When South Carolina has the ball…
Standard Downs
| South Carolina Offense | South Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 86.5 | 115 | 89.2 | 113 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.3 | 101 | 49.7 | 90 | South Florida |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.00 | 116 | 1.00 | 74 | South Florida |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.82 | 97 | 3.12 | 89 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.2% | 112 | 4.1% | 82 | South Florida |
Passing Downs
| South Carolina Offense | South Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 91.7 | 100 | 116.5 | 26 | South Florida big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 25.8 | 118 | 30.9 | 63 | South Florida big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.82 | 45 | 1.72 | 6 | South Florida |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.20 | 76 | 2.50 | 13 | South Florida big |
| PD Sack Rate | 12% | 117 | 8.1% | 58 | South Florida big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
