Georgia Bulldogs (7-5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (6-6)
December 30, 2016 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Georgia -1
S&P+ Projection: TCU (31.4-23.7)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Georgia | TCU | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 66 | 44 | ||
| Category | Georgia offense | TCU defense | TCU offense | Georgia defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.13 (95) | 5.16 (43) | 5.82 (47) | 5.08 (37) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 380.7 (92) | 421.4 (72) | 462.8 (32) | 319.8 (12) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.87 (101) | 1.97 (47) | 2.28 (66) | 1.91 (43) |
| Category | Georgia offense | TCU defense | TCU offense | Georgia defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 24.9 (93) | 27.0 (44) | 33.8 (41) | 24.6 (36) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 96.3 (89) | 103.2 (57) | 106.1 (50) | 115.0 (24) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 91.1 (93) | 115.1 (24) | 94.2 (88) | 111.6 (28) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 95.2 (92) | 111.5 (27) | 99.6 (74) | 115.8 (18) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 90.9 (102) | 110.0 (37) | 99.7 (71) | 103.9 (56) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 97.7 (85) | 130.3 (12) | 98.4 (81) | 114.8 (26) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.0 (102) | 118.4 (20) | 90.2 (108) | 98.8 (77) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 98.7 (77) | 93.8 (93) | 102.3 (60) | 110.3 (33) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 98.3 (82) | 117.9 (16) | 117.9 (14) | 111.6 (26) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Georgia
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 22 defense vs. No. 94 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 14 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 25 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 19 defense vs. No. 81 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 27 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
TCU
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 16 defense vs. No. 115 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 15 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 21 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 27 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 32 defense vs. No. 108 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Georgia offense | TCU defense | TCU offense | Georgia defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.17 (108) | 1.30 (94) | 1.24 (78) | 1.18 (23) |
| EFFICIENCY | 41.1% (83) | 39.9% (42) | 45.0% (35) | 38.5% (33) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.4 (48) | 28.8 (58) | 30.2 (54) | 29.5 (74) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 3.6 (123) | 4.3 (49) | 4.4 (79) | 4.9 (102) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Georgia 4.08 (35) TCU -0.30 (74) |
ACTUAL Georgia 7 (20) TCU -3 (83) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Georgia offense | TCU offense |
| Adj. Pace | -0.1 (63) | 4.4 (22) |
| Plays per game | 74.2 (58) | 79.6 (21) |
| Possessions per game | 12.8 (78) | 13.9 (24) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 67.8% (20) | 49.8% (114) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.7% (92) | 29.6% (95) |
| % of solo tackles | 66.0% (118) | 76.2% (45) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Georgia defense | TCU defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 64.0% (31) | 61.1% (55) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.2% (72) | 34.4% (58) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.8% (59) | 15.7% (61) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 7.9% (90) | 8.6% (73) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.8% (26) | 7.0% (38) |
| PD to INC | 38.8% (13) | 33.7% (60) |
When Georgia has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Georgia Offense | TCU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 95.2 | 92 | 111.5 | 27 | TCU big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.4 | 82 | 44.1 | 35 | TCU |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.00 | 113 | 1.02 | 92 | TCU |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.00 | 68 | 2.88 | 54 | TCU |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 63 | 8.9% | 8 | TCU big |
Passing Downs
| Georgia Offense | TCU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 90.9 | 102 | 110.0 | 37 | TCU big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.0 | 73 | 31.2 | 66 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.71 | 78 | 1.70 | 63 | TCU |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.20 | 76 | 3.99 | 122 | Georgia |
| PD Sack Rate | 6% | 37 | 9.8% | 21 | TCU |
When TCU has the ball…
Standard Downs
| TCU Offense | Georgia Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 99.6 | 74 | 115.8 | 18 | Georgia big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.3 | 24 | 42.4 | 24 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.07 | 88 | 1.16 | 23 | Georgia big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.30 | 21 | 2.78 | 40 | TCU |
| SD Sack Rate | 6% | 94 | 6.9% | 22 | Georgia big |
Passing Downs
| TCU Offense | Georgia Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 99.7 | 71 | 103.9 | 56 | Georgia |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.2 | 63 | 29.4 | 48 | Georgia |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.87 | 31 | 1.72 | 53 | TCU |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.21 | 3 | 3.37 | 80 | TCU big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4% | 12 | 7.8% | 66 | TCU big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
