Every college football media outlet has somebody who does bowl projections, or weekly-ish guesses on which teams will end up playing in which bowls. At SB Nation, it’s me, for no other reason than I started doing it years ago and wasn’t smart enough to stop. I’m occasionally OK at it.
The 11 college football teams I was most wrong about for 2016
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Going back to my preseason guesses, let’s review what went the most sideways. I didn’t list specific records for each team (though I did pick each game beforehand as a starting point), so this is more about which teams ended up the most tiers’ worth of bowls away from where some idiot had put them.
11. UCLA, picked for the Holiday Bowl (actually 4-8)
I had UCLA around 8-4. They finished with maybe the country’s worst rushing offense despite trying to build a new, pro-style offense around promising sophomore QB Josh Rosen, who did only play in six games. Rosen’s injury mattered, so UCLA isn’t high on this list, but UCLA wasn’t going to be much better than 6-6 anyway.
10. Oregon, Sun Bowl (4-8)
I was low on the Ducks, slotting them down in the bowl that didn’t matter enough for Christian McCaffrey to play in it. Not low enough, though! The defense was even worse than expected, and the offense slipped for once, too.
9. Old Dominion, no bowl (10-3, Bahamas Bowl)
If I didn’t have a team bowling and it made it in at a game or two over .500, that’s not so bad. But if it won its first bowl ever and only lost to a Sun Belt co-champ, the Conference USA champ, and an ACC bowl team, that’s a big miss.
8. Ole Miss, Citrus Bowl (5-7)
The Rebels being the best X-loss team in the country became a running joke throughout the season. But for most of the year, there was some truth to it. They’re still one of only three teams to challenge Bama. Still, I had them way up in one of the SEC’s best bowls.
7. Wisconsin, Foster Farms Bowl (11-3, Cotton Bowl)
I put UW down in the Big Ten’s third tier of bowls and agreed it’d lost a bit too much to handle its first tough schedule in a while. The Badgers finished three scores away from 14-0.
6. Michigan State, Holiday Bowl (3-9)
I had MSU playing UCLA in a bowl. Never listen to anything I have to say about the Holiday Bowl.
5. Texas, Alamo Bowl (5-7)
The podcast I co-host, Shutdown Fullcast, predicted records as a group for every team in the Power 5. Texas was one of our most contentious. I somehow talked Ryan and Spencer into 10-2. I also picked this young and talented roster for the Alamo Bowl, though that was partly since Texas could be attractive for that game even with an 8-4 record, so there was some cushion. There was nowhere near enough cushion.
I will predict Texas at 10-2 again in 2017, and no one can stop me.
4. Notre Dame, Fiesta Bowl (4-8)
LOL. Seven of their eight losses were by one score each, which means this guess was only like ... seven touchdowns away from correct.
3. Colorado, no bowl (10-4, Alamo Bowl)
I didn’t have CU bowling, but our podcast was relatively high on the Buffs, calling for 5-7. That’s still only halfway to their total.
2. TCU, Playoff (6-7, Liberty Bowl)
People got mad at me for picking Michigan to the Playoff (pretty close!), for the next team on this list, and for a few other things. But nobody got mad at me for having TCU in the Playoff over conference favorite Oklahoma. Everyone called that “bold.”
It was more like “bad.” The Frogs were blown out three times and not really good at anything, despite a Gary Patterson defense that’d gotten reps during an injury-riddled 2015 and the addition of a former September Heisman-winning QB, Kenny Hill.
1. LSU, Playoff (8-4, Citrus Bowl)
“We tried to tell you not to put a team with a Les Miles offense and quarterback and worldview into the Playoff!”
You did. And I picked them to win the Playoff.
Bama was right there. So was Clemson. I didn’t pick either. I picked LSU. I had long lists of reasons. It all made sense at the time, like most things that lead to hangovers. Just pick Bama or the team returning Deshaun Watson, dummy.
Some other things technically count as misses, but still hold up fine. I had Houston in the Cotton Bowl over Western Michigan, for example, but I still had WMU winning the MAC for the first time since 1988. NIU fans were unhappy, IIRC.
I did have Clemson in the title game and seven of the New Year’s Six’s 12 teams, including Washington, which remained in a weird hype-backlash for like the whole offseason. And among a few other hits, I had Baylor way down in the Cactus Bowl, where it ended up.
Still. Just pick one of the teams that went the year before. It’s so easy.
(Since nobody ever learns anything, here’s my starting point for 2017 bowl projections!)
Elsewhere!
Think of all the little things over the last week, year, and decade that led us to Watson rolling right with Hunter Renfrow open in the end zone.
Remember “Clemsoning?” The Tigers have turned it into a national title slogan.
Why’d Cal fire Sonny Dykes? There are a few reasons. Why’d Cal fire Sonny Dykes in mid-January? Uhhhhhhhh ... moving along ...
Georgia’s about to sign a top-five recruiting class, and it appears Auburn might be the team it’s taken the most from.
A four-star Ohio State commit is back on the market, and Bama’s gaining a little distance in its race for a seventh straight No. 1 class.
Who has won titles? Will Muschamp’s archrivals. Three of them in a row.
Matt Ryan and Roddy White praise a former Falcons ball boy by the name of Deshaun Watson. Also recall Warrick Dunn was behind Watson’s family enjoying a new home a decade ago.
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