Stanford Cardinal (9-3) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4)
December 30, 2016 ( 2:00 PM ET, CBS )
Spread: Stanford -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Stanford (29.2-29.0)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Stanford | North Carolina | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 21 | 22 | ||
| Category | Stanford offense | North Carolina defense | North Carolina offense | Stanford defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.53 (67) | 5.17 (44) | 6.33 (17) | 5.04 (35) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 367.4 (101) | 412.8 (68) | 430.7 (54) | 356.3 (27) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.25 (67) | 1.99 (50) | 2.78 (25) | 1.74 (30) |
| Category | Stanford offense | North Carolina defense | North Carolina offense | Stanford defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.8 (58) | 27.5 (48) | 37.1 (23) | 21.1 (19) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 121.5 (11) | 94.4 (87) | 115.2 (25) | 116.4 (21) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 92.3 (92) | 99.0 (67) | 122.1 (18) | 111.4 (30) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 108.1 (41) | 99.0 (67) | 114.7 (21) | 120.8 (10) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.2 (55) | 98.3 (79) | 135.8 (7) | 105.5 (51) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.9 (59) | 98.3 (75) | 129.9 (11) | 116.0 (24) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.3 (35) | 98.7 (78) | 118.1 (26) | 103.3 (56) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.6 (42) | 99.8 (65) | 115.7 (27) | 116.9 (19) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 91.3 (104) | 103.5 (55) | 107.0 (47) | 116.7 (17) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Stanford
- Run Stuffs (No. 9 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 24 offense vs. No. 108 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 87 defense)
- Field Position (No. 5 defense vs. No. 78 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 offense vs. No. 67 defense)
North Carolina
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 64 defense vs. No. 125 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 71 defense vs. No. 128 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 7 offense vs. No. 55 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 25 offense vs. No. 69 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 51 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Stanford offense | North Carolina defense | North Carolina offense | Stanford defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.30 (48) | 1.16 (16) | 1.42 (12) | 1.25 (62) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.2% (55) | 45.9% (109) | 46.2% (23) | 38.8% (35) |
| FIELD POSITION | 33.3 (9) | 28.0 (39) | 29.0 (78) | 25.7 (5) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.1 (104) | 4.1 (37) | 4.8 (41) | 4.1 (31) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Stanford -0.56 (80) North Carolina 9.04 (5) |
ACTUAL Stanford -1 (72) North Carolina 1 (56) |
||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Stanford offense | North Carolina offense |
| Adj. Pace | -6.6 (116) | -7.8 (121) |
| Plays per game | 66.5 (121) | 68.0 (115) |
| Possessions per game | 11.8 (121) | 11.9 (119) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 67.5% (23) | 50.3% (112) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 40.8% (23) | 26.6% (109) |
| % of solo tackles | 73.0% (77) | 74.3% (58) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Stanford defense | North Carolina defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.2% (99) | 68.1% (13) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 23.8% (126) | 45.0% (2) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.3% (71) | 12.4% (113) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.8% (64) | 7.6% (100) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.4% (53) | 4.7% (116) |
| PD to INC | 31.3% (85) | 32.4% (75) |
When Stanford has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Stanford Offense | North Carolina Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 108.1 | 41 | 99.0 | 67 | Stanford |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.1 | 59 | 50.6 | 104 | Stanford |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.15 | 51 | 1.03 | 39 | North Carolina |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.46 | 8 | 3.37 | 117 | Stanford big |
| SD Sack Rate | 12.3% | 128 | 4.6% | 71 | North Carolina big |
Passing Downs
| Stanford Offense | North Carolina Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.2 | 55 | 98.3 | 79 | Stanford |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.3 | 48 | 34.2 | 104 | Stanford big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.81 | 49 | 1.78 | 11 | North Carolina |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.33 | 63 | 2.92 | 40 | North Carolina |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.6% | 61 | 8.2% | 55 | |
When North Carolina has the ball…
Standard Downs
| North Carolina Offense | Stanford Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 114.7 | 21 | 120.8 | 10 | Stanford |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.6 | 50 | 42.8 | 27 | Stanford |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.28 | 13 | 1.05 | 27 | North Carolina |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.02 | 65 | 2.79 | 42 | Stanford |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.3% | 57 | 7.8% | 13 | Stanford |
Passing Downs
| North Carolina Offense | Stanford Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 135.8 | 7 | 105.5 | 51 | North Carolina |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 40.8 | 8 | 31.6 | 74 | North Carolina big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.78 | 58 | 1.53 | 84 | North Carolina |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.32 | 64 | 3.15 | 60 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5% | 20 | 8% | 61 | North Carolina |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
