Auburn Tigers (8-4) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
January 02, 2017 ( 8:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Oklahoma -4
S&P+ Projection: Oklahoma (32.0-31.7)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Auburn | Oklahoma | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 11 | 10 | ||
| Category | Auburn offense | Oklahoma defense | Oklahoma offense | Auburn defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.04 (36) | 5.69 (81) | 7.24 (3) | 4.57 (9) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 454.2 (37) | 434.7 (84) | 551.3 (3) | 341.5 (19) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.65 (36) | 2.20 (72) | 3.41 (6) | 1.28 (5) |
| Category | Auburn offense | Oklahoma defense | Oklahoma offense | Auburn defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 34.9 (34) | 28.4 (57) | 47.0 (1) | 17.1 (7) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 114.7 (27) | 103.4 (55) | 115.9 (22) | 124.3 (12) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 110.6 (42) | 105.8 (45) | 154.3 (1) | 110.0 (32) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 106.9 (48) | 107.7 (36) | 126.5 (3) | 122.3 (7) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 126.7 (14) | 100.6 (67) | 155.8 (1) | 102.6 (62) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.9 (12) | 112.2 (32) | 124.5 (23) | 113.1 (29) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.2 (36) | 101.4 (64) | 159.5 (1) | 117.3 (23) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 116.6 (26) | 122.2 (14) | 131.3 (9) | 123.4 (12) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.2 (54) | 85.0 (117) | 120.3 (10) | 123.6 (10) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Auburn
- Field Position (No. 20 defense vs. No. 89 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 78 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 12 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 58 offense vs. No. 123 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 33 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
Oklahoma
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 1 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 1 offense vs. No. 62 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 2 offense vs. No. 47 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 56 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 40 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Auburn offense | Oklahoma defense | Oklahoma offense | Auburn defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.27 (63) | 1.31 (96) | 1.43 (10) | 1.19 (28) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.6% (50) | 40.6% (46) | 52.6% (2) | 37.7% (28) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.5 (68) | 28.3 (46) | 28.8 (89) | 27.2 (20) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.6 (56) | 4.7 (86) | 5.5 (3) | 3.1 (3) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Auburn 9.75 (4) Oklahoma 4.19 (33) |
ACTUAL Auburn 4 (37) Oklahoma -1 (72) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Auburn offense | Oklahoma offense |
| Adj. Pace | 2.1 (44) | 3.0 (34) |
| Plays per game | 75.3 (51) | 76.2 (45) |
| Possessions per game | 12.2 (112) | 13.1 (56) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 72.0% (11) | 63.6% (42) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.6% (48) | 29.3% (96) |
| % of solo tackles | 72.4% (84) | 72.0% (87) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Auburn defense | Oklahoma defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.7% (112) | 50.5% (121) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 28.1% (116) | 30.4% (98) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 19.4% (13) | 14.8% (88) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.4% (40) | 8.9% (61) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 9.0% (5) | 5.8% (84) |
| PD to INC | 41.7% (1) | 29.0% (106) |
When Auburn has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Auburn Offense | Oklahoma Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 106.9 | 48 | 107.7 | 36 | Oklahoma |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.5 | 56 | 45.5 | 46 | Oklahoma |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 84 | 0.95 | 54 | Oklahoma |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.29 | 24 | 2.82 | 47 | Auburn |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.9% | 92 | 4.1% | 82 | Oklahoma |
Passing Downs
| Auburn Offense | Oklahoma Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 126.7 | 14 | 100.6 | 67 | Auburn big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.6 | 68 | 32.0 | 79 | Auburn |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.07 | 10 | 1.96 | 104 | Auburn big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.88 | 14 | 3.31 | 74 | Auburn big |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.6% | 81 | 6.3% | 89 | |
When Oklahoma has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Oklahoma Offense | Auburn Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 126.5 | 3 | 122.3 | 7 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 54.8 | 9 | 42.4 | 23 | Oklahoma |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.32 | 4 | 1.09 | 1 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.28 | 26 | 2.58 | 22 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.2% | 56 | 3.4% | 100 | Oklahoma |
Passing Downs
| Oklahoma Offense | Auburn Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 155.8 | 1 | 102.6 | 62 | Oklahoma big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 45.7 | 1 | 28.1 | 32 | Oklahoma |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.84 | 39 | 1.85 | 115 | Oklahoma big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.31 | 66 | 2.78 | 27 | Auburn |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.9% | 53 | 8.2% | 55 | |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
