Florida Gators (8-4) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4)
January 02, 2017 ( 1:00 PM ET, ABC )
Spread: Florida -2.5
S&P+ Projection: Iowa (24.4-19.8)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Florida | Iowa | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 42 | 20 | ||
| Category | Florida offense | Iowa defense | Iowa offense | Florida defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 4.89 (112) | 4.86 (27) | 5.10 (99) | 4.73 (19) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 342.0 (115) | 345.7 (21) | 324.8 (121) | 309.2 (7) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.92 (93) | 1.48 (14) | 2.17 (72) | 1.45 (10) |
| Category | Florida offense | Iowa defense | Iowa offense | Florida defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 22.8 (107) | 18.7 (12) | 29.9 (65) | 17.2 (8) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 94.9 (95) | 103.5 (54) | 114.5 (28) | 123.4 (15) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 101.6 (63) | 123.8 (12) | 100.3 (68) | 129.6 (7) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.6 (81) | 110.6 (31) | 112.8 (30) | 131.5 (3) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.3 (75) | 123.7 (16) | 93.8 (95) | 113.1 (32) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.7 (38) | 118.9 (19) | 110.0 (47) | 153.8 (3) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.6 (98) | 107.3 (46) | 117.4 (29) | 127.2 (13) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.4 (93) | 106.2 (43) | 92.7 (96) | 129.5 (8) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 92.1 (101) | 99.5 (65) | 98.1 (84) | 102.6 (58) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Florida
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 4 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 30 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 38 offense vs. No. 123 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 27 defense vs. No. 101 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 75 offense)
Iowa
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 11 defense vs. No. 98 offense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 defense vs. No. 95 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 23 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 19 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 46 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Florida offense | Iowa defense | Iowa offense | Florida defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.17 (105) | 1.14 (12) | 1.19 (102) | 1.24 (53) |
| EFFICIENCY | 39.7% (101) | 37.4% (26) | 42.9% (60) | 35.2% (11) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.6 (65) | 26.0 (6) | 32.8 (14) | 28.0 (38) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 3.9 (116) | 3.9 (24) | 5.0 (25) | 3.6 (12) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Florida -0.73 (81) Iowa 6.74 (14) |
ACTUAL Florida 1 (56) Iowa 7 (20) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Florida offense | Iowa offense |
| Adj. Pace | -5.3 (108) | -8.5 (123) |
| Plays per game | 69.9 (98) | 63.7 (125) |
| Possessions per game | 12.2 (112) | 12.3 (99) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.9% (88) | 68.6% (16) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 37.8% (34) | 32.5% (77) |
| % of solo tackles | 63.4% (122) | 73.3% (71) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Florida defense | Iowa defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 64.7% (26) | 63.8% (32) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.5% (81) | 37.3% (40) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.0% (28) | 15.0% (84) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.0% (48) | 9.9% (50) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.9% (25) | 5.0% (110) |
| PD to INC | 31.9% (79) | 30.9% (91) |
When Florida has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Florida Offense | Iowa Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.6 | 81 | 110.6 | 31 | Iowa big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.3 | 100 | 44.0 | 34 | Iowa big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.04 | 99 | 1.04 | 8 | Iowa big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.68 | 107 | 3.01 | 70 | Iowa |
| SD Sack Rate | 3% | 24 | 6.2% | 35 | Florida |
Passing Downs
| Florida Offense | Iowa Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 99.3 | 75 | 123.7 | 16 | Iowa big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.2 | 71 | 23.4 | 10 | Iowa big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.57 | 117 | 1.77 | 74 | Iowa |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.48 | 43 | 2.94 | 42 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.7% | 84 | 8.4% | 49 | Iowa |
When Iowa has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Iowa Offense | Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 112.8 | 30 | 131.5 | 3 | Florida |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.8 | 47 | 39.8 | 9 | Florida |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 64 | 0.98 | 33 | Florida |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.20 | 33 | 2.61 | 25 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.6% | 114 | 10.2% | 4 | Florida big |
Passing Downs
| Iowa Offense | Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 93.8 | 95 | 113.1 | 32 | Florida big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.5 | 83 | 26.8 | 22 | Florida big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.44 | 125 | 1.76 | 78 | Florida |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.84 | 102 | 3.77 | 109 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.6% | 94 | 8.3% | 51 | Florida |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
