Ohio State’s season ended in gory fashion on Saturday night. The Buckeyes got shut out in a Fiesta Bowl Playoff semifinal against Clemson, and it was one of the program’s (and Urban Meyer’s) worst losses in years. Nothing about it was fun for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State made the Playoff in a massive rebuilding year and still has room to grow
The Buckeyes took an embarrassing Playoff loss, but we might remember this as the year they just got started.
But here’s the annoying thing, if you’re a fan of Michigan, Penn State, or any other team sharing the Big Ten with Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes: They’re likely only going to get better, despite what just happened to them.
Entering the Playoff, Ohio State was ranked third by both human pollsters and S&P+, beating teams by a 43-14 average. That the Buckeyes were worse than they will be in the future is an upsetting thought. But it’s serious.
The NFL badly depleted Ohio State coming into 2016.
Think about what Ohio State had in 2015, and then think about what it lost. The Buckeyes produced the single best draft class by one college team ever, and it looked that way even before Ezekiel Elliott took over the world in Dallas.
Ohio State had to replace a dozen NFL draft–caliber college players plus several undrafted free agents. Of the first 102 picks, 11 were Buckeyes. The other, national title–winning QB Cardale Jones, followed at 139th.
The team had 13 other seniors move on, including starting center Jacoby Boren and right tackle Chase Farris. Starting safety Tyvis Powell and receiver Jalin Marshall also turned pro.
That’s left Ohio State with a young, inexperienced team.
From Ohio State’s last depth chart of 2015, the program lost:
- Three of five starting offensive linemen
- The starting tight end and H-back
- The top three running backs
- Two of three starting receivers
- Two of four starting defensive linemen
- Two of three starting linebackers
- Three of four starting defensive backs
Against Clemson, Ohio State started three seniors. One was the kicker, and another was the punter. Even when you’ve got Ohio State-like talent, doing this well with this little experience is really hard. As OSU blog Land-Grant Holy Land explains:
Ohio State entered the 2016 campaign with the youngest roster amongst Power 5 teams. They replaced virtually their entire secondary. They replaced almost every single player who caught a pass. They brought in a new running back, started a true freshman along the offensive line, and used a walk-on at kicker. Even for a team that recruits as well as Ohio State does, that is an enormous amount of youth.
Ohio State’s recruiting has gotten extra serious this year.
Signing day isn’t until February, but the class Meyer will sign this year looks to be his best yet in Columbus. It’s currently ranked No. 2 behind Alabama. Meyer’s previous OSU classes have ranked fourth, seventh, third, second, and fifth.
This class has a significantly higher average player rating than his previous classes. It has six five-star prospects, while nobody else has more than four. Once they fill out the ranks a little bit, the Buckeyes have a real shot to end Bama’s six-year run of top-ranked classes.
The Buckeyes will lose a few underclassmen to the draft again this year.
Three elite defensive backs — Marshon Lattimore, Gareon Conley, and All-American safety Malik Hooker — could turn pro. Hooker has said he’s staying, but he’ll be in high demand.
A lot of Ohio State’s best players are third-year sophomores or fourth-year juniors, so they’ll leave if they think it’s in their best interests and the NFL allows it. This roster has lots of draft candidates.
But not everyone will go, and plenty of important players should return.
The Buckeyes already got some good news to this effect, as offensive lineman Billy Price and defensive end Cam Hubbard said after the Fiesta Bowl they’d return to school for another year. Both will be key cogs in 2017.
Starting running back Mike Weber isn’t draft-eligible, nor is left guard Michael Jordan or right tackle Isaiah Prince. J.T. Barrett will be a front-line Heisman candidate if he returns, or Ohio State could turn to a committee of four- and five-star freshmen and sophomores to replace him. The same is true at receiver and at various positions in the defensive front seven. Things will be more than fine, even if Ohio State winds up starting a true freshman at cornerback or on the offensive line.
Ohio State had six returning starters this year. It had 43 scholarship true or redshirt freshmen who had played a combined zero college downs. The Buckeyes were replacing more of their production than any other power conference team.
Next year, they’ll have less to overcome. What happens when they don’t lose as much as they did and add even more talent? If you’re not rooting for them, you’d probably rather not find out.
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