The field is set for the College Football Playoff. No. 1 Alabama will play No. 4 Washington in a semifinal at the Peach Bowl, and No. 2 Clemson will play No. 3 Ohio State at the Fiesta Bowl. Those semis are on New Year’s Eve, and the winners meet in the National Championship in Tampa on Jan. 9. Las Vegas thinks those teams will be Alabama and Ohio State.
New College Football Playoff odds for 2016: Alabama, Ohio State favored in semifinals
Vegas likes the Tide and Buckeyes in early Playoff lines.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The Sagarin ratings have Alabama favored by about 7.5 against Washington, and Ohio State favored by about 9 against Clemson. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ model has the Alabama spread at -10 and Ohio State’s at -5. S&P+ projects Ohio State has a 61 percent chance to win, while Alabama’s chance is 71 percent.
Alabama being a two-touchdown favorite by human oddsmakers speaks to the Tide’s dominance. And if Washington’s able to stay within 14 points, it’ll be one of just three teams to have done that against the Tide. The Huskies face a real uphill climb, and the struggle is that there’s no real solace in losing but covering the spread in a Playoff game.
Washington has to play Alabama in Atlanta, where the Tide just trounced Florida in the SEC Championship. As the top seed, Alabama gets the benefit of playing close to home, while Washington needs to fly diagonally across just about the entire country. That could make things even more difficult for UW. And when you’re playing what could be Nick Saban’s best Alabama team ever, you really don’t need things to get harder.
Ohio State and Clemson will play more of a tossup, at least on paper. That seems about right for a pair of one-loss teams who have been mostly dominant but with a few hitches. The Fiesta Bowl could turn out to be really, really close, and that’ll be great for everyone except fans of the involved teams.
Alabama’s going to be favored all the way through its Playoff run, whether it lasts one or two games. If Clemson’s able to pull off a slight upset (in Vegas’ eyes) and Bama doesn’t succumb to Washington, we’ll get a rematch of last year’s national final, which saw the Tide get past Dabo Swinney’s team in dramatic fashion.
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