Michigan finished ranked behind a Penn State team it beat by 39 points, and that’s fine

The official College Football Playoff committee rankings, out on Sunday, don’t put either Penn State or Michigan in the top four. But the Nittany Lions and Wolverines are next up at Nos. 5 in 6, in that order, and Michigan fans are not delighted. Just search “Michigan 39” or “39 points” on Twitter right now, and you’ll get the idea.

The reference: a Sept. 24 game in Ann Arbor, where Michigan whomped Penn State to the tune of a 49-10 final score. The Wolverines out-gained Penn State by 299 yards and thoroughly ran the Nittany Lions out of the stadium. It was a slaughtering.

The debate about who should be ranked higher is practically moot. Penn State is the Big Ten champion, so it’s locked into the Rose Bowl anyway. Michigan has no argument to make to the contrary.

But with both teams finishing with two losses before bowl season, Michigan fans could be forgiven for some annoyance that Penn State’s above them.

The two teams finished the regular season with the same overall record of 10-2, and the committee doesn’t care much about divisional races. (Penn State won the Big Ten East on a tiebreaker over Ohio State.) Michigan was certainly more dominant in general, with an offense that was four points better on average and a defense that was about 12 points better.

But Penn State won the conference, and the committee says conference championships matter. That’s the big thing Penn State has on Michigan. The Nittany Lions also have a better record against the teams’ common opponents, because both of Michigan’s losses (to Iowa and Ohio State) came against teams Penn State beat.

For whatever it’s worth, Michigan doesn’t have an unbeatable strength-of-schedule argument. Penn State has a better ESPN strength of record, and the Lions beat seven bowl teams to Michigan’s eight. Both had few elite wins: PSU over Ohio State and Wisconsin; Michigan over Wisconsin, Penn State, and Colorado.

Take issue with the consistency of the committee’s application of the conference championship standard, if you want. After all, the league’s Playoff representative is the Buckeyes, and they didn’t win the Big Ten, either. OSU made it in over two two-loss Power 5 champions: PSU and Oklahoma. But the Buckeyes had other points in their favor, the biggest being a head-to-head win over (and better record than) Michigan.

Penn State had an average scoring margin of plus-14, and Michigan’s was 28. The Wolverines had a significantly better case, if the object here were purely to pick the best teams.

But “margin of victory” comes up nowhere in the committee’s stated selection protocol, except where it’s said the committee doesn’t want to “incentivize” it. Members can use a so-called “eye test” to figure out who’s best, and Michigan clearly should win something like that.

The Wolverines are the better team, but Penn State beat them in the things the committee officially has to care about. Hate the system if you want, but don’t hate Penn State for giving itself the advantages the committee asks for.