Florida State’s ready for another Playoff push, if it can find a steady QB

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

When Jimbo Fisher took over for Bobby Bowden in 2009, he inherited one of the most fragile bluebloods in the country. Over Bowden’s final five years, FSU had lost at least four games every season and had gone 7-6 three times.

The Seminoles would prove their upside, then fall asleep.

They beat No. 5 Virginia Tech and No. 9 Miami in 2005 but lost to three unranked teams and got thumped by three touchdowns against Clemson. In 2006, they won at No. 12 Miami, lost to unranked Clemson and Maryland, and got rocked 30-0 by Wake Forest. In 2007, they won at No. 2 Boston College by 10 points, beat No. 22 Alabama, and lost to four unranked teams. In 2008, they beat No. 22 Maryland by 34 and lost to two unranked foes. 2009: win at No. 7 BYU by 26, lose to three unranked opponents (two by double digits).

Fisher didn’t fix this overnight. His Noles beat two ranked teams and lost to four unranked ones in 2010-11. But a last-second loss to Mike Glennon and unranked NC State in October 2012 was the last time they would fall asleep for quite a while. The Seminoles would win 28 straight games against ACC foes and 40 of 42 games overall. And it took the most awesomely fluky finish for that conference streak to end.

Since the start of 2012, FSU is 49-6 with four straight top-15 poll finishes. That might not sound necessarily good enough for a program that recruits the way the Seminoles recruit -- with all the winning and consistent play, they have only once ranked better than seventh in S&P+. But their average S&P+ over the last four years ranks fourth, because outside of Tuscaloosa, Columbus, and maybe Palo Alto, no team has put as consistently strong a team on the field year-to-year.

More importantly, FSU has been as consistent week-to-week as anybody but Alabama. Even while struggling to play elite ball in 2014, the Seminoles hit at least the 70th percentile in 11 of 14 games. Then, despite inconsistent quarterback play, a young offensive line, and a lack of depth in the defensive front seven, they hit the 70th percentile 10 of 13 times and never fell below the 59th. Yeah, that opened the door for a fluky loss to Georgia Tech and an error-prone loss to Houston. Still, almost everybody suffers a complete dud each year. FSU does not.

In previewing the Noles last year, I noted that 2015 was the time to take them down.

The rest of the ACC is blowing it. After three straight conference titles, Florida State is in full rebuild mode. The Seminoles will be breaking in a new quarterback and offensive line, and the defensive front seven is searching for new stars. There is too much upside for them to fall far, but a top-15 team could easily end FSU’s streak.

Considering how many key pieces will return in 2016, another FSU title would represent one hell of a missed opportunity for the rest of the league.

This is a legacy year for Fisher. Even if FSU wasn’t as good as it should have been last year, the Noles have won 58 games in five years, and with consistent top-5 recruiting, they will keep winning. Any major 2015 success would be a bonus.

Clemson was very much a top-15 team (to put it lightly) and ended FSU’s conference title streak. But if the Tigers slip at all, if they suffer any sort of hangover after nearly winning the national title, their reign atop the ACC will be short.

FSU still has plenty of questions, but whatever level the Noles establish, they’ll probably hit that mark week after week. There is such comfort in that.

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It is a coaching cliché that rang particularly true.

Granted, the home averages include romps over Texas State and Chattanooga, but FSU was nearly flawless at home in 2015. It took them a little while to build space against teams like USF and Louisville, but aside from Miami, every opponent was put away well before the end.

On the road, FSU revealed itself to be young and flawed, at least on offense. With a pair of quarterbacks alternating and a green offensive line looking like a green offensive line, the Seminole offense was shut down. The defense, meanwhile, got even better.

FSU had basically one reliable offensive weapon: Cook. And Cook missed considerable time because of an ongoing hamstring issue. He was a really good dimension, but FSU was one-dimensional despite wanting to be a pass-first offense. Quarterbacks Everett Golson and Sean Maguire split time on the first string, and neither seriously progressed. And when Maguire got hurt early in the Peach Bowl, with Golson not in uniform, everything went to hell quickly.

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Maguire suffered a fractured ankle against Houston; when he went down, FSU was down 7-3 but was averaging 8.9 yards per play and was driving. Over the rest of the half, FSU lost 10 yards in 17 plays and fell behind, 21-3. J.J. Cosentino was completely overwhelmed. A one-legged Maguire returned and fared no better.

FSU would rally for three touchdowns in the second half, but Maguire threw three more interceptions. Houston was able to put the game away against a wilting FSU defense.

This was a microcosm. We saw a lot of good Maguire and a lot of bad Maguire once he took the job from Golson. Against Syracuse and NC State, he completed 41 of 63 passes for 579 yards, five touchdowns, and just one pick. Against Clemson and Florida, he was 30-for-57 with 324 yards, a score, and an interception. And in the bowl, both his ankle and Houston’s deceptive secondary got into his head.

Maguire enters the fall as the presumptive sole starter, but thanks in part to his injury, he has to look over his shoulder. [Update: Maguire be out for at least the first few games with a stress fracture in his foot.] Redshirt freshman Deondre Francois looked solid this spring while Maguire sat out, so “presumptive” is a loose term. We saw with Jameis Winston that Fisher will hand the reins to a freshman if he needs to.

Whoever wins the job just has to be solid. You don’t have to be a Heisman-level QB when you’re sharing a backfield with Cook. That Maguire was really good on longer third downs -- 26-for-45 for 335 yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception on third-and-4 or more while taking few sacks overall -- is encouraging. It’s a sign that, when combined with a receiving corps that returns everyone, a good passing game could be right around the corner.

Not only is the entire receiving corps back, the entire offensive line is, too. The Noles returned just nine career starts heading into last season, all from guys who were freshmen in 2014. They had to shuffle things around a bit, starting nine different guys at least three times. Still, they protected Maguire well (the more scrambly Golson, not so much) even while the run blocking was inconsistent.

Continuity often lends to consistency. And all nine of the starters are back, including potential All-American tackle Roderick Johnson.

In theory, Cook might be healthy, too. He would rip off 40-yard runs in 2015, limp to the sideline with a re-aggravated leg, then come back in and rip off another 40-yarder. Against Wake, Miami, and Louisville, he carried 46 times for 479 yards and five touchdowns.

Here’s the list of players who carried at least 225 times last year and averaged better than 9 highlight yards per opportunity:

That’s it. No one else averaged better than 8.9, and among power-conference backs, Fournette was second in this sample at 6.8. Cook was absurdly explosive despite the limp. And if having two fresh legs allows him to better skate out of trouble, that’s even better. He was stopped for a loss a lot, especially in the bowl game (18 carries, 33 yards). But still, he averaged 7.4 yards per carry for the season.

Cook might be better than Leonard Fournette (LSU) or Nick Chubb (Georgia). And if the injury bug is kinder, he might have more of an opportunity to prove it.

If Cook and the line are healthy, and Maguire pulls off typical year-to-year improvement, this offense will be dangerous enough to win a lot of games. But for as good as the passing game could be on passing downs, FSU ranked 45th in Standard Downs S&P+. That’s unacceptable.

A lot of FSU’s issues came down to a lack of efficiency targets. After so many years of being able to rely on tight end Nick O’Leary (77 targets, 48 catches, 618 yards in 2014), FSU only got 35 targets, 20 catches, and 260 yards out of the TE position last fall. That left the slot and flanker positions to field shorter, possession-based passes.

Kermit Whitfield was great in the slot, but while Jesus Wilson caught 67 percent of his passes, his success rate was only 48 percent (solid, not great), and backup Ermon Lane caught just six of 19 passes. At times, this resulted in too much of a load for then-sophomore Travis Rudolph.

Rudolph, Whitfield, and Cook each averaged 8.8 yards per target or better. That will play. But the top two Zs averaged just 6.5. Lane, a former blue-chipper, averaged 2.6. This unit clearly has a world of potential (and now experience, too), but having strong possession men is important.

FSU’s defense ranked just 40th in Def. S&P+ in 2014, forcing Winston and a strong offense to make play after play to keep the Noles undefeated.

In 2015, the offense predictably regressed, at least on the road. But the more experienced defense improved dramatically. Despite efficiency issues against the run, FSU improved to 10th in Def. S&P+, powered by incredible pass defense and big-play prevention. After allowing 68 gains of 20-plus yards in 2014 (103rd in FBS), the Noles allowed just 44 (12th).

The improvement was obvious, but there were still issues, particularly up front. FSU by nature isn’t a super-aggressive defense, but the Noles ranked 91st in stuff rate and 57th in passing downs sack rate. Pure talent should result in better numbers than that.

Plus, there’s the issue of fading. FSU ranked fifth in first-quarter S&P+ and 24th in the second quarter. They improved to 11th in third quarter, then dropped to 60th in the fourth.

Some of those fourth-quarter numbers can be explained by garbage time, but this was still a thin front seven. Only four linemen recorded more than 14 tackles, only six more than 4.5. And at linebacker, FSU was paper-thin, with only two of the top eight LBs playing in all 13 games and only four managing more than nine tackles. This likely resulted in some slippage as a half wore on and fatigue became a factor.

The line should probably be fine with the trio of DeMarcus Walker (an excellent pass rusher) and sophomore Josh Sweat at end and Derrick Nnadi and sophomore Demarcus Christmas at tackle. Those are the only particularly experienced linemen, but they are excellent, and newcomers like freshman end Brian Burns and super-quick JUCO tackle Wally Aimé could make an immediate impact. This unit is a couple of injuries away from having to play a lot of freshmen, but it seems solid.

Linebacker could be an issue. Only four played much last year (in what is often a 3-4 defense), and two of the four are gone. Sophomore Sh’Mar Kilby-Lane is the third leading returning tackler among LBs, and he had 3.5 tackles.

The return of Matthew Thomas after suffering through injury/eligibility issues will help. He’s strong enough to defend the run and quick enough to play in a nickel alignment if need be. Combined with Jacob Pugh’s potential blitzing ability and Ro’Derrick Hoskins’ ability to defend the run, the likely top three at LB are strong and exciting. But it’s possible that the backups will all be freshmen. So uh, nobody can get hurt.

Thanks to a combination of experience and all-world freshman, FSU improved from 50th to fifth in Passing S&P+ last season. The Noles still had corner Jalen Ramsey sticking to opponents’ top receivers and still had Lamarcus Brutus roaming, but they also had the services of maybe the nation’s best freshman, safety Derwin James. The blue-chipper contributed a disruptive presence to the steady lineup, recording 9.5 tackles for loss and four passes defensed and leading the team in tackles.

Continuity tends to matter quite a bit for a secondary, so losing Brutus, Ramsey, and Javien Elliott, plus backups Tyler Hunter and Keelin Smith, will hurt.

But the depth of options is thrilling. Youngsters like safeties Trey Marshall, A.J. Westbrook, and Calvin Brewton, and corners Tarvarus McFadden, Malique Jackson, and Marcus Lewis have been waiting for an opportunity, and all-world freshman Levonta Taylor is expected to make an immediate impact. In the absence of proven production, you’re looking for competition. FSU has loads of the latter.

After a maligned first few years as FSU’s punter, Caston Beatty went out with a bang, providing what were on average some of the highest and longest punts in college football. Because of Beatty, FSU ranked second in punt efficiency, and because of Roberto Aguayo, the Seminoles were eighth in kickoff efficiency and were basically guaranteed three points if they reached the opponent’s 25.

The loss of these two could hurt. Kermit Whitfield’s still around to return kicks, though, so special teams will have at least one strength.

Because of the consistent level of success, consistent quality in recruiting, and amount of returning offensive production, FSU is projected fifth in the country. I’ve seen the Seminoles ranked pretty close to that in a lot of preseason publications. It makes sense.

FSU’s projected rankings makes me marvel that much more at the Seminoles’ projected win total. Their schedule features six projected top-30 teams, three tossups (in this case, games with win probability between 48 and 54 percent) and six not-guaranteed wins (games with win probability between 64 and 75 percent).

Two of the three tossups take place in the first three weeks. The Noles get Ole Miss in Orlando and Louisville at Papa John’s Stadium, and a stark narrative might have taken hold by the time they head for another tricky test at USF: either this team will be undefeated and primed for a national title run or will be 2-1 or 1-2 and playing the role of Clemson Spoiler for the rest of the season.

The Seminoles are a high-ceiling, low-variance squad, and despite win projections, I have a hard time imagining FSU losing more than twice in the regular season.