Underestimating Utah football feels dangerous at this point, but here goes

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Shows what I know. Utah and Whittingham managed to exceed my expectations, if only by a little bit. The Utes raced to a 6-0 start by holding off Michigan and Cal at home and beating the everliving daylights out of Oregon on the road. After losing three of five, they finished with wins over pseudo-rival Colorado and longtime rival BYU to reach the 10-win mark for the first time in their Pac-12 existence.

Utah’s F/+ ranking over the last three years: 32nd, 29th, 22nd. The win total in that span: five, nine, 10.

After a four-year stumble following a 13-0 2008, Whittingham’s Utes have reestablished themselves as a competitive, top-30 program. Whittingham has dragged the program forward despite nearly constant turnover on his coaching staff and revenue that doesn’t quite match that of most of the Pac-12.

And now he’s outlasted his BYU counterpart, Bronco Mendenhall, who left for Virginia. Kalani Sitake, Whittingham’s former defensive coordinator, now leads the Cougars.

Now here’s where I doubt Whittingham and the Utes again. And I’ve got math on my side.

With 11 years of F/+ ratings in our back pocket, here’s what we know about continuous improvement. On average, only about 50.4 percent of FBS teams improve their F/+ ranking over the previous year, only about 19.7 percent improve twice in a row, 6.1 percent improve for three years in row, and 1.5 percent improve for four years in a row.

It’s really hard to move up each year in a zero-sum universe. There are more good coaches than there are successful coaching performances. Even if you are an excellent coach, and even if you establish a winning trajectory, you still hit potholes.

So this is where Utah regresses, at least temporarily, right? Maybe? There are still games to be won in a division where Colorado is still struggling and where the Arizona schools are resetting. But it is very rare to improve for four years in a row.

If Utah regresses a bit in 2016, it will be because of the offense.

Whittingham kept his staff mostly intact this year, and offensive co-coordinators Aaron Roderick and Jim Harding return. This is the first time since 2008 that he’ll have the same offensive coordinator arrangement for two straight years.

But he has to replace his top two quarterbacks, his top rusher, his top three wideouts, and a three-year starting center. Returning production is at a minimum, and even though the offense wasn’t great, you still tend to regress when you lose the basic components of your passing game.

Whittingham is one of the best in the country at piecing together a salty two-deep through disparate recruiting outlets -- local JUCOs, unrated or low-rated Utah high schoolers, and second-tier options from California and Florida -- and he will do so again in 2016. But further progress will be difficult this fall. Just like I thought it would be last year.

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I got yelled at by Utah fans a lot in the opening weeks of 2015. S&P+ liked the Utes but didn’t LOVE them. Their brief rise to No. 3 in the AP poll, sparked by a stunning destruction of Oregon, only moved the S&P+ needle so much when combined with decent-not-great performances against Fresno State, Cal, and Utah State. The Utes didn’t appear to be following a sustainable formula, and the late-October course correction was a little bit mean.

Utah followed a loss at USC with a good performance against Oregon State and a great one against an improving Washington. Then they played maybe their two worst games against division rivals Arizona and UCLA before rebounding.

Perhaps the good news is that, even if or when the offense does regress in 2016, this is a defense-driven team. In Utah’s four best games (i.e. the four in which they hit the 81st percentile or higher), the Utes only averaged 5.3 yards per play, only a little bit better than what they averaged in the other nine (5.0). The defense, meanwhile, allowed just 4.8 yards per play in those games, impressive considering all four opponents ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 50.

This Utah defense has a lot to replace in the front seven, where three of the top four linemen and each of the top three linebackers are gone. But there’s continuity in the back, where you tend to need it the most. And if we assume that the front seven is only going to fall so far -- it’s hard to imagine a Utah that doesn’t have boulders and missiles up front -- then the defense should still be solid enough to win quite a few games.

Andy Ludwig in 2008. Dave Schramm in 2009. Schramm and Aaron Roderick in 2010. Norm Chow in 2011. Brian Johnson in 2012. Dennis Erickson in 2013. Dave Christensen in 2014.

Since 2008, Utah has only once featured an offense that ranked better than 38th in Off. S&P+. The Ute attack has rarely been bad -- it has only twice ranked worse than 54th in that span -- but it has rarely been potent.

At least part of the reason has been a complete lack of continuity. But after Christensen left, a funny thing happened: The new guys actually stayed.

The Harding-Roderick attack was run-first, efficiency-based, and not all that dissimilar to the Christensen attack of 2014. The main difference was that the tempo was a little bit slower. And when your defense is quite a bit stronger than your offense, it’s only fair that the offense allow for some rest.

This was a relatively safe attack despite the fact that Utah had an experienced QB. It probably won’t be any less stolid with a newbie behind center, especially with speedy junior running back Troy McCormick returning after missing last year with injury. The run personnel is far more proven than the pass personnel.

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

When JUCO transfer Troy Williams, a four-star prospect per Rivals, signed with Utah in February, it was easy to assume he would end up starting in 2016. And he might! But Williams got dinged up in the spring, and junior Brandon Cox took advantage of first-string reps.

Heading into fall camp, Whittingham says Williams, Cox, and incoming freshman Tyler Huntley will all have a shot at the job. (Former four-star Chase Hansen took a few snaps at QB last season but mostly played safety and will probably do so again.)

Whoever wins will have some decent insurance policies. The line returns five players who started at least seven games last year, plus four-star sophomore Jackson Barton and four-star JUCO Garrett Bolles. The Utes were strong in short-yardage and did a decent job of protecting Travis Wilson, who was a sack-prone scrambler as a younger player.

Other solid assets for any new QB:

None of these guys are likely big-play artists. But if you’re looking to build confidence for your new QB by being able to create third-and-manageable situations, they will help significantly. And once in third-and-manageable, you have McCormick, who is both explosive and apparently good at blitz pickup.

McCormick could be key for another reason: Utah struggled with explosiveness last year -- 49 gains of 20-plus yards in 2015, 100th in FBS -- and that was WITH Britain Covey’s unexpected emergence. Covey’s gone on LDS mission over the next two years, and including Patrick’s 2014 season, the top three returning wideouts averaged 10.5 yards per catch.

Unless McCormick has a big year, it’s hard to see how Utah improves its big-play ability. More unknown receivers like Cory Butler-Byrd, Kenric Young, and incoming freshman Demari Simpkins could figure out how to unlock defenses deeper downfield, but in terms of proven quantities, Utah is high on potential efficiency options and low on explosives. [Update: Butler-Byrd has been indefinitely suspended from the program.]

Whittingham has dealt with plenty of change at defensive coordinator as well, but the baseline is quite a bit higher. Utah has ranked 31st or better in Def. S&P+ in eight of the last nine seasons, and the only time the Utes were lower, they were still a decent 44th.

Last year, I noted quite a few red flags for the defense. Sitake was replaced by 72-year-old retiree John Pease, one-man pass rush Nate Orchard was gone, and so was half the two-deep in the defensive backfield.

But while the pass rush regressed, virtually nothing else did. Utah was fantastic at forcing passing downs (fifth in Standard Downs S&P+), and while the Utes played things relatively safe in those situations, the pass defense was solid, the run defense was spectacular, and Utah improved from 30th to 14th in Def. S&P+, its best defensive ranking since 2007 (10th).

So much for red flags.

When you’re this consistently solid, it seems fruitless to worry too much about turnover. Sure, Pease is back to retirement, but new coordinator Morgan Scalley is an internal hire with quite a bit of experience under Whittingham. Over the last decade, since coming on as a graduate assistant in 2007, he has constantly added responsibilities. By 2015, he was safeties coach, special teams coordinator, and recruiting coordinator. Now, he’s given up those latter two roles and taken control of the defense (well, as much as you can take control of a defense with Whittingham running the show).

It’s hard to imagine Utah not producing steady quality with its front seven, but 2016 will test that. End Jason Fanaika, the top two tackles, and a trio of active linebackers (Gionni Paul, Jared Norris, and Jason Whittingham combined for 26 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and 12 passes defensed) are all gone.

Whittingham brought in two JUCO transfers to compete at linebacker, where no returnee made a single TFL last year. But up front, depth could hold up. Five returnees recorded at least 8.5 tackles last year, and active-as-hell Kylie Fitts is back. The UCLA transfer not only recorded seven sacks but also forced 10 fumbles and batted down 10 passes, and incredibly underrated skill. Though he wasn’t particularly active in run situations, he was a one-man havoc rate on passing downs. For that matter, so was senior end Pita Taumoepenu, who recorded only 8.5 tackles last year ... six of which were sacks.

On average, turnover at linebacker doesn’t have the impact that turnover in the secondary does, and if Utah can produce competence in the middle of the defense, the front and back should hold up.

Pass defense was definitely a relative weakness last year, at least in spurts -- Utah allowed a 133.2 passer rating to Utah State and Fresno State, a 160.3 against USC, a 154.0 against Arizona, and only a 107.4 against everybody else. If problems arose, it was probably on first down: On third-and-4 or more, opponents completed only 53 of 101 passes for 730 yards, four touchdowns, and seven picks (passer rating: 112.4).

With Fitts and Taumoepenu back up front, the pass rush should still be decent. And with everyone but safety Tevin Carter back in the secondary, it’s hard to imagine the pass defense doing anything but improving. Carter was strong, but Utah still has disruptive safeties in Marcus Williams, Justin Thomas, and potentially Chase Hansen. Meanwhile, every corner is back, including seniors Reginald Porter and Dominique Hatfield (combined: 4 INTs, 13 PBUs). Whittingham is comfortable enough with the cornerback unit that he okayed Cory Butler-Byrd’s move from corner (where he was a four-star JUCO transfer last year) to wide receiver.

There could very well be regression in run defense, but in the pass-heavy Pac-12, Utah’s pass defense might improve enough to keep the Utes in the Def. S&P+ top 15 or 20.

The Internet’s favorite punter has moved on. JUCO transfer Mitch Wishnowsky, or whoever else might fill Hackett’s shoes, has a lot to live up to in both the personality department and the “averaging 48 yards per punt” department.

Luckily, Utah still has some special teams strengths despite losing both Hackett and a strong punt returner in Britain Covey. Butler-Byrd returned a kickoff for a touchdown (though he was incredibly all-or-nothing), Boobie Hobbs took one of his nine punt returns to the house, and Andy Phillips is an incredible place-kicker. The distance on his kickoffs could stand to improve, but this is still almost certainly a top-40 special teams unit.

It’s not hard to see why Utah is projected to regress -- the offense has to replace production in key areas, and a dominant front seven is retooling.

But while the quality might shift downward, it appears Utah still has the personnel to be a Whittingham-style team. That means attempting to pound away on the ground, leveraging opponents into passing downs, and winning the special teams battle. If the quarterback is up to snuff, Utah should be efficient enough to define the game on its terms, even if the Utes don’t have the offensive play-makers to threaten 10 wins again.

Whether Utah regresses a little or a lot, though, could dictate a pretty significant shift in win projection. Per S&P+, Utah is given a greater than 70 percent chance of winning in one game and a greater than 70 percent chance of losing in one game. Ten games fall between 36 and 69 percent, and four fall between 41 and 57. Quick adapting by the new quarterback and new linebackers, or the emergence of a big-play weapon or two on offense, or simple luck of the bounce could make the difference between 5-7 and 9-3.