College football is hard to predict, even when it comes to the basics. With a small sample size of only eight or nine conference games, and with all the players being of such a volatile age, nobody’s gonna get it right much more than half the time.
College football favorites usually *don’t* win their conferences
As if college football could ever be accurately predicted.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Here’s one look: Power 5 favorites, according to each conference’s official preseason polls from the last decade-plus, compared to who actually won each year.
The straight-up title record of conference favorites over this span is 27-33, with some conferences’ media faring more accurately than others. That record looks slightly better if we give full credit for split championships in which the conference favorite lost a head-to-head game against another co-champ, but that’s the Participation Trophy of conference titles.
To the records, which show this is a hard sport to predict, even for people who are supposed to spend all their working hours studying it.
Predicted ACC champs
Year | Favorite | Result | Actual champ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Miami | 4th in Coastal | Wake Forest |
| 2007 | Virginia Tech | Champ | Virginia Tech |
| 2008 | Clemson | T-3rd in Atlantic | Virginia Tech |
| 2009 | Virginia Tech | 2nd in Coastal | Georgia Tech |
| 2010 | Virginia Tech | Champ | Virginia Tech |
| 2011 | Florida State | T-2nd in Atlantic | Clemson |
| 2012 | Florida State | Champ | Florida State |
| 2013 | Clemson | 2nd in Atlantic | Florida State |
| 2014 | Florida State | Champ | Florida State |
| 2015 | Clemson | Champ | Clemson |
| 2016 | Clemson | Champ | Clemson |
| 2017 | Florida State | 6th in Atlantic | Clemson |
| 2018 | Clemson | ? | ? |
The ACC is usually relatively easy to predict, because there are only so many serious football schools.
Predicted Big 12 champs
Year | Favorite | Result | Actual champ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Oklahoma** | Champ | Oklahoma |
| 2007 | Oklahoma** | Champ | Oklahoma |
| 2008 | Oklahoma** | Champ | Oklahoma |
| 2009 | Texas** | Champ | Texas |
| 2010 | Texas** | 6th South | Oklahoma |
| 2011 | Oklahoma | T-3rd | Oklahoma State |
| 2012 | Oklahoma | T-1st | Kansas State* |
| 2013 | Oklahoma State | T-2nd | Baylor |
| 2014 | Oklahoma | 4th | Baylor* |
| 2015 | TCU | T-2nd | Oklahoma |
| 2016 | Oklahoma | Champ | Oklahoma |
| 2017 | Oklahoma | Champ | Oklahoma |
| 2018 | Oklahoma | ? | ? |
Just pick Oklahoma every year.
Predicted Big Ten champs
Year | Favorite | Result | Actual champ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Ohio State*** | Champ | Ohio State |
| 2007 | Michigan | T-2nd | Ohio State |
| 2008 | Ohio State | T-1st | Penn State* |
| 2009 | Ohio State | Champ | Ohio State |
| 2010 | Ohio State | T-1st | Michigan State* |
| 2011 | Nebraska**** | 3rd Legends | Wisconsin |
| 2012 | Michigan | 2nd Legends | Wisconsin |
| 2013 | Ohio State | Leaders champ | Michigan State |
| 2014 | Ohio State | Champ | Ohio State |
| 2015 | Ohio State | T-1st East | Michigan State |
| 2016 | Ohio State | T-1st East | Penn State |
| 2017 | Ohio State | Champ | Ohio State |
| 2018 | Ohio State | ? | ? |
Ohio State is the Power 5’s most frequent conference favorite and is usually a near-miss at worst.
Predicted Pac-12 champs
Year | Favorite | Result | Actual champ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | USC*** | Champ | USC* |
| 2007 | USC | Champ | USC* |
| 2008 | USC | Champ | USC |
| 2009 | USC | T-5th | Oregon |
| 2010 | Oregon | Champ | Oregon |
| 2011 | Oregon | Champ | Oregon |
| 2012 | USC | T-2nd South | Stanford |
| 2013 | Oregon | T-1st North | Stanford |
| 2014 | Oregon | Champ | Oregon |
| 2015 | USC | South champ | Stanford |
| 2016 | Stanford | 3rd North | Washington |
| 2017 | USC | Champ | USC |
| 2018 | Washington | ? | ? |
Despite being the country’s hardest conference to predict on a game-by-game basis, the Pac-12 might’ve had the easiest Power 5 champs to predict. Going back a few more years before 2006 would’ve made that even clearer, since USC would’ve tacked on multiple more.
Predicted SEC champs
Year | Favorite | Result | Actual champ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Auburn | T-2nd West | Florida |
| 2007 | LSU | Champ | LSU |
| 2008 | Florida | Champ | Florida |
| 2009 | Florida | East champ | Alabama |
| 2010 | Alabama | 4th West | Auburn |
| 2011 | Alabama | 2nd West***** | LSU |
| 2012 | LSU | T-2nd West | Alabama |
| 2013 | Alabama | T-1st West | Auburn |
| 2014 | Alabama | Champ | Alabama |
| 2015 | Auburn | 7th West | Alabama |
| 2016 | Alabama | Champ | Alabama |
| 2017 | Alabama | T-1st West***** | Georgia |
| 2018 | Alabama | ? | ? |
The SEC media’s record of picking champs compares fine with the Big Ten’s or Big 12’s as of late, but it’s the one most famously associated with a bad record (6-20 all-time), perhaps because only Alabama and a group of like four other schools ever have real chances to win it, so how hard could it be?
* In the event of tiebreakers, I listed the head-to-head winner.
** Big 12 polls until 2010 only listed division favorites, not conference favorites, so I used the AP Poll as a tiebreaker. A previous version of this post used raw Big 12 vote counts.
*** For a few older Big Ten and Pac-10/12 seasons, I couldn’t find official releases, so I used the AP. The favorites seemed quite clear for each year.
**** The Big Ten stopped doing an official poll this year — what decorum, valor, sanctity, and scholarship! — so Cleveland.com handles it annually.
***** National champ though, lol.
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