The Michigan hype train is charging down the tracks. Is Jim Harbaugh’s team ready?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year’s team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year’s roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

As a Missouri fan/blogger in the 2000s, I viewed it as an annual benchmark. The summer was for counting up the number of analysts predicting this was the year Nebraska reached the big-time again, and this was the year Colorado bounced back. We made fun of these predictions annually. It was “typical media” doing “typical media” things. Lazy thinking, etc.

So I get it.

Fans of Big Ten schools that aren’t Michigan are probably tired of seeing the Wolverines really high in this year’s preseason rankings.

It’s not the first time. Only twice in the last nine years have they finished higher than they started -- they began 2005 fourth and finished unranked, began 2007 fifth and ended up 18th, began 2012 eighth and finished 24th, and began 2013 17th and finished unranked -- but they frequently get the benefit of the doubt.

So I know what it sounds like for me to say Michigan is probably going to be really good this year. But ... Michigan is probably going to be really good.

Not because of the classic helmets, and not because Bo Schembechler was awesome back in the day. No, the Wolverines are going to be excellent because they have an excellent coach, have the offensive experience requisite for a team breaking in a new quarterback, used recruiting to supplement last year’s thinnest unit (defensive line), replaced an excellent defensive coordinator with last year’s most excellent defensive coordinator, and have continuity where you tend to need it most (receiving corps, secondary).

Harbaugh drastically exceeded expectations in his first season back. His Wolverines were projected 35th in S&P+ and finished sixth. That was bolstered by their work in the first half of the season -- they obviously weren’t playing at a top-10 level down the stretch -- but thanks to the combination of full-season output, returning production, and recent recruiting, UM is projected sixth this time.

Is that too much, too soon? Sometimes you regress after surging a little bit too much in a single season, even when you return a lot of the reasons for that surge. (On the other hand, the second half of last season might have qualified as regression.) And anytime you stick a new starting quarterback on the field, you run the risk of finding out he’s not as good as you thought.

Maybe the offense doesn’t function as smoothly under new quarterbacking. Maybe the defense doesn’t click with Don Brown like it did for DJ Durkin (now Maryland’s head coach). Maybe the defense will fade again. Maybe the running game still won’t gain much traction.

(And if you want to bring up the fact that Michigan was excellent in Brady Hoke’s first year, go for it.)

My confidence in these projections has nothing to do with Michigan and everything to do with Harbaugh.

He inherited a dreadful Stanford and improved it from 94th in S&P+ to 71st, then 45th, then 30th, and then sixth. He inherited a 49ers team that hadn’t had a winning record in nine seasons and went 36-11-1 in his first three years. In one season, he fielded what was, per S&P+, the best UM team in nine years. The Wolverine offense ranked in the Passing S&P+ top 10 last year! With Jake Rudock at quarterback!

Harbaugh is weird. He gives strange, Schembechler-esque answers. In barely a year and a half, he’s figured out the most creative, shark-jumping ways of getting attention.

But he’s also one of the most proven coaches in football. And I’d be willing to bet last year’s improvement was a precursor to this year’s. Maybe next year’s, too.

Even adjusting for opponent, what Michigan’s defense did over the first six games of 2015 was monumental.

From that perch, the Wolverines were almost destined to slip. Keep that up, and you’re the greatest defense of all time. Over the second half of the season, starting with the cursed Michigan State game, they struggled compared to the standard they had set.

The defense really only had three bad games. Minnesota had Michigan fooled all game, averaging 6.8 yards per play, but the Gophers still only scored 26 points. Allowing 5.9 and 41 points to Indiana was rough, and of course there was nothing positive to take away from the Ohio State loss (42 points, 7 yards per play).

These three games accounted for 23 percent of their games played but 40 percent of their yards allowed.

Part of the reason Harbaugh’s offenses found success so quickly at Stanford was that, in an age of offenses getting faster and more spread-out, his staff doubled down on size and power. Sure, the Cardinal eventually had Andrew Luck, but Harbaugh’s first star was Toby Gerhart. And he sure did love his tight ends.

In Harbaugh’s first year at UM, with offensive coordinator Tim Drevno (his former line coach at San Diego, Stanford, and San Francisco) calling the shots, Michigan sure did enjoy the forward pass. And without an immense tight end presence (Jake Butt did catch 51 passes, but he was the only tight end with more than 12 catches), the Wolverines were still really good at throwing.

Whether this was more by choice or necessity -- and judging by the S&P+ ratings (43rd in rushing, eighth in passing), it could have been the latter -- it worked. Rudock began the season missing open targets in a tight loss to Utah, but by midseason, he was outstanding. His passer rating over the first eight games was 120.3; last five games: 168.3.

In theory, the run should be stronger in 2016, if Drevno were to want to lean on that. Three of the top four halfbacks are back (along with another four-star freshman in Kareem Walker), and with almost all of the two-deep returning, one would assume moderate improvement.

But if Michigan is able to figure out its quarterback situation again, this receiving corps might demand more passing.

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Graduate transfers can help immensely, but most of them will leave after one season. Rudock clicked late in the year, and then his time was up.

So the QB search begins again, and this year’s starter will emerge from a pile of misfit toys. Wilton Speight did just enough to lead Michigan to the go-ahead score against Minnesota after Rudock got hurt, but for the season he completed just nine of 25 passes. John O’Korn was last seen throwing eight interceptions in five games at Houston and losing his job to Greg Ward Jr. Shane Morris was last seen failing to breathe life into a 2014 Michigan offense. Brandon Peters has not been seen at all; that’s the upside to being a four-star true freshman.

This situation looks at least a little dire ... until you remember the lack of Rudock buzz last year. It took a little while for Harbaugh, Drevno, and quarterbacks coach Jedd Fisch to get him going, but they did it. This time, everyone but Peters has been working with Fisch for a while.

It appears Speight is the front-runner. That could change in fall camp, but he and O’Korn eased ahead of Morris, to the extent that coaches experimented with playing Morris at receiver. Whoever starts will have one exciting advantage: they’ve got one of the Big Ten’s best sets of receivers.

If the running game doesn’t improve, Michigan’s offense should still be solid.

“Solid” might not be enough for a top-10 team, but the floor is high because Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, and Butt are all back. They each caught between 50-58 passes last year, and each took turns being the go-to guy in difference situations. All three were efficient (success rates at 50 percent or higher), and Chesson was explosive, too.

The running backs are pretty good at catching (De’Veon Smith, at least), and there are quite a few exciting young sophomores and freshmen. (One of them: massive redshirt freshman Tyrone Wheatley Jr., who seems to be developing into quite a blocker and pass catcher while the size of an offensive tackle.)

Great, so the receivers will do well, and the line is in better shape than it’s been in a few years. Rudock’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly helped, but the sack rates were good, and the line kept the pocket pretty clean for the RBs, too.

Still, Michigan runners rarely found the second level of the defense. I usually consider a highlight yardage average of 5 or more to be pretty explosive; none of UM’s top three backs last year topped 4.3. Ty Isaac showed some potential but only got 30 carries.

Smith and Drake Johnson are back, and Isaac was apparently a star in the spring game. If the run game can break just a few more big plays, this offense, which already improved from 82nd to 32nd in Off. S&P+ last year, could crack at least the top 25.

At the very least, run game improvement could help Michigan avoid late-game predictability. The Wolverines had a top-25 offense for three quarters, then very much did not in the fourth.

Michigan returns four of its top five tacklers on the line and six of seven in the secondary. There’s turnover at linebacker, but most of last year’s stars -- ends Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton up front, corner Jourdan Lewis and everything guy Jabrill Peppers in the back -- are back.

One guy who isn’t: Durkin.

This could end up a big deal. Durkin inherited a good defense (18th in Def. S&P+ in 2014) and made it tremendous. The Wolverines faded in the second half of the season, but they still finished second in Def. S&P+. For all we know, Durkin’s ability to pull the strings was better than anybody else’s will be.

Still, Harbaugh made one hell of a replacement hire. With almost none of the blue-chip athletes Michigan boasts, Brown crafted the No. 3 defense in the country at Boston College last year.

BC’s defense worked because the front four was dominant. (It’s amazing how many defenses work when you’ve got a great line, huh?) It allowed Brown to play aggressively (up front) and conservatively (in the back) at the same time, taking only calculated risks with the secondary. BC was incredible at creating inefficiency and preventing big plays. The Eagles also had one of the best redzone defenses in the country. They were the total package.

This is going to be a good defense no matter what, but if it’s going to remain in the top five, it’s going to need to improve up front. Or at least progress back to the level it showed earlier in 2015.

I don’t want to understate the importance of having steady linebackers, but on average, a team can withstand turnover at LB better than it can turnover on the line or in the secondary, especially when you’re not replacing All-Americans.

Joe Bolden, Desmond Morgan, Royce Jenkins-Stone, and James Ross were good, and LB depth could become a serious issue with only a few known replacements, but I can only pretend to worry about that unit so much. If the line reaches its potential, the linebackers will find plenty of opportunities to make plays.

Things fell apart for the line right around the time of Mario Ojemudia’s injury. There was still play-making potential on the edge, but it seemed to be a tough blow for Michigan’s tenuous depth. Ryan Glasgow going down was the knockout punch.

Depth might not be any better this year. When you were only comfortable with seven guys, and two are gone, improvement isn’t guaranteed. But when you’ve got reinforcements like all-world freshman Rashan Gary, it’s hard to worry too much.

Obviously injuries could do a number, but the upside is even higher. The injury bug up front could dictate whether Michigan’s defense is ridiculous or merely very good.

The line lost its push late in the year, which meant for a few glitches in pass defense. But for the most part, the Wolverines had few issues through the air. Only two teams managed a passer rating better than 125.3 against Michigan (Minnesota and Ohio State).

The loss of Jarrod Wilson isn’t optimal. He was steady enough at free safety that it let others take some chances. Jourdan Lewis defensed 22 passes, and two other corners defensed at least five. Wilson allowed for experimentation with Peppers, one of the best athletes in college football.

Per Harbaugh, Peppers would be the best on the team at just about any non-line position. At nickelback, he can play a lot of different roles. Assuming Delano Hill or some other safety can maintain Wilson’s steadiness, it’s really hard to worry here. Michigan is loaded in the back.

Blake O’Neill’s punting average went up slightly after the debacle at the end of the Michigan State game. Over his next two games, he averaged more than 44 yards per punt.

But overall, punting was the only special teams category in which Michigan didn’t produce decent efficiency numbers. That made O’Neill the most replaceable piece, and now he will be replaced.

With Peppers and Lewis in returns and Kenny Allen on kicks and kickoffs, this should again be a strong special teams unit. Punting will determine whether or not Michigan improves on last year’s No. 36 Special Teams S&P+ ranking.

We don’t know if quarterback play will be solid, if a decent (but not explosive enough) running game will improve, if the defensive line will withstand an injury or two better than it did last year, and if the linebacking corps can avoid a drop-off.

Since QB play (among other things) cost the Wolverines a victory against Utah, and since perilous run defense led to a late-season drop, these are significant.

But there’s so much to like. Michigan has an excellent receiving corps, its best offensive line in years, and play-makers galore in the front and back of the defense. It also has a dynamite coaching staff and is led by a head coach as consistently successful as he is weird.

Because last year’s best Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Michigan State) are replacing breakthrough talent, this is the year for Michigan to make its move. The Wolverines aren’t a slam dunk -- and they have to go to both East Lansing and Columbus -- but it’s not hard to see why some think otherwise.