Georgia fans, don’t be nervous. You’re gonna beat Florida.

The Georgia Bulldogs are better than the Florida Gators. Both on paper and on the field in both teams’ first two months of play, the Dawgs have outclassed the Gators every week.

But there’s a level of shookness throughout the Georgia fanbase when it comes to this game. There could be one second left on the clock, and Georgia could be in the victory formation, and some Dawgs fans would still be just a slight bit worried that the Gators would get them again.

To explain this is to explain the psychology of the rivalry.

Georgia has beaten Florida six times since 1990, three of which came from 2011-2013. The Dawgs enter this game as two-touchdown favorites. On a larger scale, this has proved to be the most unpredictable major rivalry in all of college football.

As just one example, the last time they were close to being this favored entering the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail party, this happened in a 38-20 UF win back in 2014:

Florida was able to run the ball pretty much all day against the Bulldogs, carrying the ball 59 times for a staggering 424 yards and five touchdowns. Kelvin Taylor (25 carries, 197 yards, two touchdowns) and Matt Jones (25 carries, 192 yards, two touchdowns) led the way for the Gators, while quarterback Treon Harris completed three of his six pass attempts for 27 yards. The Gators’ last win with less than 10 pass attempts came in 1977 vs. Utah, per the CBS broadcast.

That’s part of the reason why speaking to most any Georgia fan will get you cautious optimism at best about this year’s Cocktail Party. There’s a Stockholm Syndrome that Dawgs fans have to exorcise, and a dominant victory over the hated Gators this season just might do the trick.

Besides butterflies, there should be no cause for Dawgs fans to be worried.

These are the opponent-adjusted ranks for both teams in Bill Connelly’s advanced stat profiles.

Here’s Georgia’s:

And here’s Florida’s:

If styles make fights, Georgia’s defense vs. Florida’s offense is a cruiserweight vs. a heavyweight. UGA is No. 3 in total defense by yards-per-game; UF is No. 102 in total offense by yards-per-game. Georgia’s defense has allowed opponents 10 TDs this season, while Florida has only scored 18.

The Dawgs’ D is fast and fierce, while Florida’s O sputters more often than it doesn’t. The Dawgs are lightning quick particularly laterally where they’re really tough to beat with screens and sweeps. That’s largely how Florida has attempted to attack teams this season.

It’s splitting hairs at best, but when looking for any advantage: Georgia has shown they’re a bit susceptible in the vertical passing game. Only 18 teams have given up more passing plays of over 20 yards. Can the Gators exploit that? Probably not. Florida’s tied for 117th in passes over 20 yards.

Don’t throw the records out in this rivalry games. Include them. Georgia’s undefeated and one of the best teams in the country. It is true that Georgia QB Jake Fromm hasn’t been forced to beat a team yet, but Florida’s defense is not what it was in recent years.

The Dawgs should also be in the first Playoff top four that’s released on Tuesday if they win. If the Gators lose this game, they’re in serious jeopardy of not making a bowl at 3-4.

My take: Georgia beats Florida and covers the big spread, 31-12.