Ohio State had a 2.7 percent win probability vs. Penn State before coming back to win

Below, a devastating graph for Penn State fans:

That’s an interactive win probability graph from Ohio State’s 39-38 win against the Nittany Lions on Saturday, via ESPN.

If you click on that link, you’ll go to an interactive version of the graph, which specifies that PSU’s chances to win the game were 97.3 percent with 7:35 to play. That was when Penn State was knocking on Ohio State’s door, leading 35-27 with a chance to punch in another touchdown and expand the lead to two scores.

OSU’s win probability ticked upward after its defense held Penn State to a field goal on that drive. It shot upward not when Ohio State scored a touchdown on its next drive, but when its defense forced a stop on Penn State’s counter-possession.

Ohio State’s chances went above 50 percent for the first time since the opening minutes when J.T. Barrett threw the go-ahead touchdown pass to Marcus Baugh with 1:48 to play. That gave OSU a 65.8 percent chance, which only went up as Penn State’s offensive line failed to block the Buckeyes on their last-ditch shot to win.

Win probabilities are based on years of play-by-play data, which measure how teams facing similar score and down-and-distance situations have done over time.

Ohio State was the better team all game, outgaining Penn State by 2.4 yards per play. The Nittany Lions led because Ohio State’s special teams were awful. But at the end of the day, their lead was supposed to be almost insurmountable. It was not.