2017 Sun Belt football power rankings: Troy’s the best, but App State’s the favorite

At the end of each conference previews run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference’s balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. This is just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them.

Here’s a link to every team’s data, and each team’s name below is linked to its preview.

1. Troy
2. Appalachian State

I really, really like Troy this year. The Trojans were awesome for half of last season before hitting a few bumps, and as with just about every mid-major, they could have their depth tested severely with just a couple of poorly placed injuries. But I see a deep, experienced team, one that might be more capable of handling depth issues than others in the conference.

Of course, I still see Appalachian State as your conference favorite, if we’re taking schedule into account. It’s such an advantage to skip both Troy and Arkansas State and get Georgia Southern at home. App State doesn’t play any of my Tier 1 or Tier 2 schools and gets three of five Tier 3 schools at home. It’s almost impossible to craft a schedule easier than that. That isn’t the Mountaineers’ fault, but it does set up a situation in which the team that is truly the conference’s best doesn’t win the title. They’ll live with that, I’d imagine.

3. Arkansas State

ASU has mastered the art of peaking in conference play, and if the Red Wolves do so again, they could sneak into another tie for the conference title at 7-1 or so. They don’t have quite as many new pieces this time around, and that should work out well for them. That offense got awfully bad, awfully quickly, though.

4. Georgia Southern
5. Idaho
6. South Alabama
7. UL-Lafayette
8. Coastal Carolina
9. Georgia State

At least three of these teams will go bowling, I’m betting, and depending on how the standings shake out, I could see as many as five becoming bowl eligible, if just barely. (On the flip side, we could see about four of these teams finishing 5-7, too.)

Still, there are lots of story lines: Can Georgia Southern bounce back and show some of the promise it lost last year? How is Idaho’s last FBS season going to play out? Can South Alabama finally find some consistency? Can UL overcome a ridiculous schedule? How will Coastal fare out of the FBS gates? How quickly can Shawn Elliott put some pieces together in Atlanta?

10. New Mexico State
11. UL-Monroe
12. Texas State

It wouldn’t be a total surprise to see Doug Martin’s all-in approach to recruiting pay off. NMSU gets a huge (and brief) boost from JUCO recruiting and could threaten 6-6 if Larry Rose III gets going and the defense isn’t terrible. Still, the Aggies bear the burden of proof.

And while I think both Matt Viator at ULM and Everett Withers at TXST could get some momentum, it’s probably going to take another year.

Here’s how S&P+ has the Sun Belt laid out for 2017. (You can find full 2017 S&P+ projections here.)

S&P+ sees a projected advantage for Appalachian State, and that’s before you take into account that the Mountaineers don’t face Troy or Arkansas State.

Projected conference and overall wins in parentheses.

I think S&P+ is selling Idaho short, but the Vandals could collapse under just a couple of injuries. Regardless, S&P+ sees this as either a one- or three-team race, depending on how far you want to stretch the parameters.

As a review, by the way, here’s where the teams stood last year, in offensive and defensive quality.

I like Troy, but App State was the best-rounded team in the conference a year ago and could be again.

Most Sun Belt offenses were efficiency-based in 2016 (App State most of all), while Arkansas State and Georgia State were all-or-nothing. The former makes you more reliable, but the latter sure is fun.

When healthy, Rose is the best. But Linehan, Silvers, and Moore in particular have pretty good cases.

Georgia State was all-or-nothing on offense and bend-don’t-break on defense, offering mediocre efficiency combined with by far the best big-play prevention in the conference.

Meanwhile, Arkansas State has a brand. The Red Wolves are going for big plays on offense and sacrificing them for three-and-outs on defense. And they have maybe the best player in the conference leading the attack.

I don’t think I trust ASU quite as much as I do Troy and Appalachian State, but the Red Wolves’ upside is undeniable.