2017 MAC football power rankings: Toledo’s year, unless WMU screws it up

At the end of each conference previews run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference’s balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. This is just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them. So far we’ve done the Sun Belt and C-USA.

Here’s a link to every team’s data, and each team’s name below is linked to its preview.

1. Toledo
2. Western Michigan

I really think this is Toledo’s year to take charge. Granted, I’ve thought that multiple times before, and if Tim Lester is able to click with the talent P.J. Fleck left behind, I won’t be thinking that at the end of this season.

3. Miami (Ohio)
4. Northern Illinois

If UT or WMU doesn’t win, it’s almost certainly going to be one of these two. Anybody from the MAC East has a chance to snare a muddy division title and pull a title game upset, I guess, but from a pure quality standpoint, Miami and NIU are closest to the Rockets and Broncos.

5. Eastern Michigan
6. Bowling Green
7. Central Michigan
8. Akron
9. Ohio
10. Ball State

Really, this is a 5a, 5b, 5c, etc., situation. I found almost no way to separate them, and I’ve changed my mind about the order multiple times.

Akron is the most volatile team of the bunch, and Ohio’s the most steady. CMU could break the “six or so losses every year” trend, but close games could skew the win total in either direction. I like EMU more than my numbers do, and the odds of Bowling Green bouncing back are solid but not guaranteed.

11. Buffalo
12. Kent State

Just about every year, a coach pulls off a third-year leap you didn’t see coming. Examples from 2016: EMU’s Chris Creighton and Wyoming’s Craig Bohl. Neither the stats nor eyeballs really see it coming when it happens, and who knows, maybe it’ll happen for UB’s Lance Leipold. He’s still a good coach, after all. But when “Hey, maybe a random leap will occur” is your best reason for optimism, you’re starting pretty far down on the power rankings.

Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure Kent State will be hiring a new coach in about eight months. Hey, Darrell Hazell is available ...

Here’s how my statistical system has the MAC laid out for 2017, with 0 equating to an average FBS team. (You can find full 2017 S&P+ projections here.)

S&P+ is higher on Ball State and lower on Akron than I am, basically.

Projected conference wins, with overall wins in parentheses.

East

Miami is the front-runner, but three are projected within one conference win of each other. Meanwhile, Akron has just about the hardest conference schedule imaginable, and Kent State has just about the easiest.

West

The most interesting thing to me about these West projections: the fight for a sixth overall win could be fascinating. Toledo and WMU are in front of the pack, but the other four in this division could be taking each other out for bowl eligibility. All of them have a chance at it. (You can’t really say that about the East.)

Only two were particularly decent on both sides of the ball, and the home of MACtion didn’t have nearly as many high-octane offenses as its reputation suggests it should. That said, a lot of MAC teams were dealing with quarterback injuries. That might not be the case this fall.

It was hard to separate yourself from the pack in efficiency, but only a few teams figured out how to carve out bigger chunks of real estate. And Toledo’s was just about the only offense that figured out both efficiency and explosiveness.

There are lots of quarterbacks, which honestly surprised me. But the Bulls will only go as far as Jackson will take them, and Holley might also be the Golden Flashes’ best running back and receiver.

P.S. Stay healthy, Thomas Woodson. I want to see what you’re capable of. You too, Shaq Vann.

From an efficiency standpoint, there was almost no separation whatsoever. Ten of the MAC’s 12 teams hovered between about 38 and 44 percent in terms of success rate. But the magnitude of the big plays varied significantly, and only the trio of Ohio, Kent State, and Miami was particularly balanced.

I listed six cornerbacks and a safety above. A league with good QBs and good cover guys? That sounds pretty fun, actually.