How the top 25 will change, once it actually comes out (remember, it’s on Tuesday this week)

There isn’t an update to the AP Poll Top 25 until the Tuesday after Week 1. It usually comes out on Sundays, but opening weekend goes on forever, lasting through a Labor Day night game.

That’s fine, because it’s pretty easy to take a look at the rankings, a look at the scores, and slap the two together based on what we know about the polls.

These also aren’t the rankings that matter. The College Football Playoff committee’s top 25 starts on Oct. 31.

But! They’re fun to argue about. Here’s how we guessed it would stand for Week 2. For a look at how the chips actually fell, head here.

Bama will likely be the unanimous No. 1 after beating No. 3 Florida State pretty comfortably, 24-7.

A 49-21 win over Indiana sounds about right.

No. 3 shouldn’t beat No. 1 anyway, and nobody else in the country had to play Bama, in my opinion.

The Trojans had a lot more trouble with WMU than the 49-31 score suggests, and the next few teams blew people out.

Nothing wrong with a 56-3 win over Kent State.

Nothing wrong with a 52-0 win over Akron.

Nothing wrong with a 56-7 win over UTEP.

The Huskies had clear issues in a 30-14 win at Rutgers, a team that might be improved, but is still Rutgers.

Beating Utah State, 59-10, is fine, but Michigan beat Florida.

Beating Tulsa, 59-24, is fine, but Michigan beat Florida.

No. 17 Florida was short-handed, but UM more than tripled up the Vegas line in a 33-17 win.

A 41-7 win over Georgia Southern is fine, but LSU whooped BYU.

Dominating BYU, 27-0, is one of the week’s best wins.

Beating Rice, 62-7, sounds about right.

With so few ranked teams losing, it’s hard to see the poll making many moves. But beating Appalachian State by a 31-10 margin and with a backup QB is a really strong win.

The Cardinals beat Purdue by only 35-28, but most of the teams below them lost or played nobodies.

A 33-17 loss is about what a top-25 team should do against No. 11, but an 0-1 record is an 0-1 record.

Beating FCS Bethune-Cookman, 41-13, doesn’t prove much.

Struggling with FCS Stony Brook and then winning by 31-17 isn’t outstanding, especially after struggling with San Jose State in Week 0.

Beating FCS Central Arkansas, 55-19, doesn’t prove much.

After beating No. 22 West Virginia, 31-24, maybe the Hokies jump ahead of Louisville?

Losing on the last play is rough, but still a loss. WVU can climb back in.

The Horns lost to Maryland, 51-41, and are definitely not BACK.

It’s exciting that, for the first time in three years, WSU didn’t lose to an FCS team, but beating Montana State, 31-0, doesn’t prove much.

The Vols came back to beat Georgia Tech in double overtime.

With only two or three spots available, it’ll likely come down to:

I’d guess Maryland, South Carolina, and UCLA would be the likeliest three.