College football’s history of extreme overreaction to early-season results is well-documented and understandable. We only get 12 to 15 data points on each team each year, so we have to react as harshly as possible to each outcome.
Tua Tagovailoa is your 2018 September Heisman, but should it be Dwayne Haskins?
If they gave out a Heisman right now, here’s who would win it.
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
In no way is this more apparent than in the truckload of hype dumped upon the player (who plays quarterback or maybe running back, probably for an undefeated blueblood in a power conference) with the most eye-catching stats by mid- to late-September. That guy’s going to win the Heisman. There’s no way around it. Give him the September Heisman.
A recent history of September Heisman glory
Year | September Heisman | Actual Heisman |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Sam Bradford, Oklahoma QB | Sam Bradford, Oklahoma QB |
| 2009 | C.J. Spiller, Clemson RB | Mark Ingram, Alabama RB |
| 2010 | Denard Robinson, Michigan QB | Cam Newton, Auburn QB |
| 2011 | Case Keenum, Houston QB | Robert Griffin III, Baylor QB |
| 2012 | Geno Smith, West Virginia QB | Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M QB |
| 2013 | Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M QB | Jameis Winston, Florida State QB |
| 2014 | Kenny Hill, Texas A&M QB | Marcus Mariota, Oregon QB |
| 2015 | Leonard Fournette, LSU RB | Derrick Henry, Alabama RB |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson, Louisville QB | Lamar Jackson, Louisville QB |
| 2017 | Saquon Barkley, Penn State RB | Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma QB |
| 2018 | Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama QB | ? |
Mostly pulled from this list here
As you can see, sometimes that guy does win the Heisman! Starting with an early lead doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s better than not having a lead!
The September Heisman, despite often being associated with undue attention, is not a pejorative. Bradford and Jackson would’ve clearly been the September winners in their seasons, and then they fairly won the whole thing in December.
2018’s September Heisman winner is a player who’s so good, he’s barely had to play.
Tagovailoa has been quite arguably college football’s best quarterback through five weeks, with the national lead in passer rating and the top rating among all QBs who’ve faced three or more teams with winning records. Hard to argue with 14 TDs and 0 INTs, even though his yardage numbers would probably be a lot better without some of those TDs.
He hasn’t exactly been challenged by great defenses, though the same also goes for other top QBs like WVU’s Will Grier or Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray.
That means his primary competition for the September Heisman — the second most prestigious takeoff of the Heisman, behind only the Piesman Trophy itself — is Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins, who’s put up numbers just a couple steps behind Tua’s despite having to play TCU away from home and Penn State on the road. Haskins deserves tons of credit for having to play Penn State, but we can agree the A&M team Tua beat is probably better than TCU, right?
(I think if I personally had to vote on the September Heisman, a fake award, I’d vote Haskins No. 1 and Tagovailoa No. 2. I think.)
Either way, no Heisman Trophy is really about which player has proved the most or is the best at a certain task, but simply about ... well, it’s about which player wins the Heisman Trophy. (Ommmmmmm.) And Tagovailoa ended September with by far the best odds to win the December Heisman.
What about linemen, defenders, and other position players, you might ask?
This fake award has the word “Heisman” in it, friend, and thus I do not know what you’re talking about when you say such a thing.
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