We all saw Texas beat Oklahoma in one of 2018’s best and biggest games so far. The Horns scored so many points, they got OU’s defensive coordinator fired! They then shot up from No. 19 to No. 9 in the AP Poll, their highest ranking since 2010.
Why Baylor’s a pretty smart spread bet against Texas
The Horns could win by double digits, keep their Big 12 hopes alive, and still not cover.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
That’s great, and the Horns have a real chance to win the Big 12. But we might be overrating Texas a little bit (this would certainly be the first time that’s ever happened).
Compare that No. 9 ranking by the humans to what the unfeeling computers think.
Machines don’t care that the Red River Rumble Ruckus Riot was watched by a lot of people, ended dramatically, or featured one team getting up by 21 points. They just see Oklahoma outgaining Texas by about 3 yards per play both on the ground and through the air, all while fumbling twice and losing both bounces. The robots would confidently pick OU in a rematch.
Texas is down at No. 14 in the Massey Composite, which combines just about every computer and poll out there into one number. And in S&P+, a rating that typically beats Vegas, they’re No. 38.
None of this is to take away from Texas’ big win or to say the Horns are a facade about to crumble. It’s just to say there’s probably some value in betting on their opponents for a while.
The first team up for Texas after the big, loud win over Oklahoma is Baylor, a team most fans probably haven’t watched much this year.
The Bears are about what you’d expect in Matt Rhule’s second year: pretty good at offense and pretty bad at defense. They’re on course for a minor bowl. The season-long power ratings might even be underrating Baylor a little bit, since the Bears needed a few weeks to find their best QB.
Texas opened as a 17-point favorite at some books. That’s since nudged down a few points, but even at 14 or so, there might still be value. Texas has usually scored in the 20s and 30s this year, not the high 40s, and Baylor’s the same. A look at the matchups shows both offenses have clear advantages here, but S&P+ has the Horns winning by 9 or 10, with both teams scoring in their usual ranges.
So if you happened to grab Baylor +17 on Sunday, you nearly doubled up what a proven system says the spread probably should’ve been. That doesn’t happen very often.
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