On Wednesday, we took a look at all of FBS’ division races, ranking them by quality and potential drama. Only nine of the 10 FBS conferences have divisions, though, and the 10th is just a couple results away from getting wild. So let’s take the time to see what the Big 12 race might have to offer this season.
The Big 12 race will likely come down to 3 teams ... unless Texas Tech unlocks chaos
Go Red Raiders.
Photo by John Weast/Getty Images
There weren’t many super-surprising results during Week 6 of the 2018 season, but a couple of the most surprising, from a numbers standpoint, took place in the Big 12.
Oklahoma was still the far-and-away conference favorite until Texas’ upset win, which left the Longhorns and West Virginia at 3-0 in Big 12 play, a game up on the Sooners and Baylor. (Baylor at 2-1? Yep, that’s what happens when you play Kansas and Kansas State, the two worst teams in the conference, among your first three games.)
Thanks to OU’s loss, West Virginia now has the best shot of getting to the Big 12 title game.
The Sooners aren’t far behind, mind you, and the odds are pretty good that the two participants will come from a three-team pool. But there are a lot of chaotic possibilities still on the table. Using S&P+ projections as our guide — you can find full win projections in the college football stat profiles — let’s look at who’s most likely to finish in the top two.
2018 Big 12 projections
Big 12 | Conf. Record | Avg. Proj. Wins | Odds of 0 L | Odds of 0-2 L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | 3-0 | 6.94 | 7% | 67% |
| Oklahoma | 2-1 | 6.68 | 0% | 60% |
| Texas | 3-0 | 6.21 | 2% | 40% |
| Texas Tech | 1-1 | 5.26 | 0% | 15% |
| TCU | 1-1 | 4.73 | 0% | 6% |
| Oklahoma State | 1-2 | 4.50 | 0% | 3% |
| Iowa State | 1-2 | 4.41 | 0% | 2% |
| Baylor | 2-1 | 3.75 | 0% | 1% |
| Kansas State | 0-3 | 1.38 | 0% | 0% |
| Kansas | 0-3 | 1.14 | 0% | 0% |
S&P+ likes WVU, ranking the Mountaineers 11th in the country. But their remaining road is bumpy enough that they aren’t given much of a shot at remaining unbeaten.
They are only projected underdogs in one game, with a 45 percent win probability when Oklahoma comes to town on November 23. But they aren’t exactly resounding favorites either; they have a 70 percent chance of winning at Iowa State, 65 percent at Texas, 75 percent vs. TCU, and 54 percent at Oklahoma State. Mash those projections together, and WVU has only an 18 percent chance of remaining unbeaten until OU visits Morgantown.
If the title game participants come from a pool of 8-1 and 9-0 teams, then WVU, OU, and Texas are the obvious candidates.
But if WVU slips up before OU, then loses to the Sooners ... and if OU slips up again ... and if Texas drops a couple of games, as projected ... then that opens chaos’ door.
Texas Tech could be the key.
As you see above, five teams besides the top three have at least a tiny chance of reaching 7-2: Texas Tech (15 percent), TCU (six percent), Oklahoma State (three percent), Iowa State (two percent), and Baylor (one percent). Those aren’t big odds, but they’re on the board.
Tech, for instance, is a 10-point underdog to Oklahoma but is only a projected underdog in one other game (by one point at TCU this weekend). Win in Fort Worth on Thursday evening — easier said than done — and the Red Raiders become a semi-legitimate contender.
When you’ve got a perfect round-robin schedule, as the Big 12 does, and you’ve got this many semi-interesting teams, you’re guaranteed to have impactful matchups just about every week during conference play.
(Granted, when you have a perfect round robin, you don’t need a title game at all, but that’s neither here nor there.)
Here’s a quick look at the most important remaining games of the regular season:
- Week 7: Texas Tech at TCU (Thursday), West Virginia at Iowa State
- Week 8: Oklahoma at TCU
- Week 9: Texas at Oklahoma State, Texas Tech at Iowa State
- Week 10: West Virginia at Texas, Oklahoma at Texas Tech
- Week 11: TCU at West Virginia, Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, Texas at Texas Tech
- Week 12: West Virginia at Oklahoma State
- Week 13: Oklahoma at West Virginia, Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Tech-TCU is an eliminator of sorts, and depending on how things have taken shape in the interim, Tech-Iowa State in Week 9 could be, too. Odds are decent that the two participants come from the three-team pool of favorites, but Kliff Kingsbury’s Red Raiders basically hold the key to chaos. I can’t think of a more apt team to play that role.
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