Plenty of Florida State fans have just about resigned themselves to a loss against rival Miami, and it’s about a lot more than just one team being No. 17 in the AP poll and the other nearly losing to FCS Samford. It’s more, uh, specific than that.
A couple quick stats that show Miami’s an especially tricky matchup for FSU
Why are the odds so long here? Look at the trenches.
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Miami’s biggest strength, the thing it’s one of the best teams in the country at, will also square off against FSU’s most glaring weakness.
In Bill Connelly’s havoc rate stat, which tracks a defense’s total disruptive plays:
- Miami’s defense ranks No. 1 in the country through five weeks. The Canes are No. 1 in hell raised by defensive linemen and No. 11 in linebacker disruption. That’s a monstrous front seven, with Gerald Willis’ 10.5 tackles for loss tied for the national lead and linemate Jonathan Garvin just one behind.
- How’s Florida State’s offense fare at avoiding havoc? Bill’s numbers have the Noles No. 116 out of 130 at limiting defensive disruption. FSU ranks second to last in the Power 5 at avoiding tackles for loss, ahead of only Oregon State.
More specifically, the Canes should have a massive advantage whenever FSU attempts to run.
Bill’s stats also include stuff rate, or the percentage of a team’s runs that gain zero or negative yardage outside of garbage time.
- Florida State’s offense has been dead last out of 130 teams at avoiding stuffs.
- Miami has been No. 1 at stuffing runs.
Neither of those comparisons is a stunner to anybody who’s watched both these teams.
The Canes’ beloved turnover chain just beat UNC by itself, more or less. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s attacks have long been designed to cause as much mayhem as possible, and he’s got the talent at Miami to do it.
And FSU’s offensive line had almost no chance of being good this season. Among other things, the Noles have been rocked by injuries up front, though that part seems to be stabilizing somewhat.
The trenches are the single clearest reason the Canes are currently 13.5-point favorites.
FSU’s defense has been decent, and its passing game has showed life, so if you’re pulling for an upset, just watch all the other stuff with your hands partly in front of your eyes.
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