Week 1 of the 2018 college football season wasn’t particularly memorable. Most of the highest-billed games — Auburn vs. Washington, LSU vs. Miami, Virginia Tech vs. Florida State — were determined as much by red zone execution, field position, and turnovers (vital but not particularly thrilling) as anything else, and aside from Maryland taking down Texas again, most of the noteworthy upset bids came up short.
After near-upsets in Week 1, how worried should we be about Penn State and Michigan State?
Two of the Big Ten’s most highly ranked teams were taken the distance by Group of 5 foes.
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
That’s not to say there was no excitement. Two of those upset bids were thrilling.
On Friday night, No. 11 Michigan State needed a late touchdown and interception to survive Utah State, 38-31. Then, on Saturday afternoon, No. 10 Penn State gave up 28 points to Appalachian State and had to score late to force overtime.
While we try to avoid jumping to conclusions after one week of data, should we be concerned with how these two top-12 teams operated in Week 1? Was it a bullet dodged or a sign of things to come?
Penn State’s problems flipped midway through the game.
If you have to suffer an upset or near-upset, it’s better to have it happen through weird things like bad bounces, special teams, and game flow than, say, getting out-gained and out-muscled.
The bounces don’t really apply to Penn State, but the other two weird things do. App State’s Darrynton Evans took PSU’s first kickoff 100 yards for a score, and the Mountaineers squeezed an extra possession when they recovered a surprise onside kick midway through the fourth. (They truly followed the upset script to a T.)
There were other problems, too, though.
The offense, now led by coordinator Ricky Rahne — last year’s OC, Joe Moorhead, is now Mississippi State’s head coach — enjoyed a perfect first possession and then stagnated. Quarterback Trace McSorley was 8-for-16 for 68 yards and a sack at halftime, and the Nittany Lions gained a combined 32 yards over a span of four possessions. Their own defense was dominating, but thanks to the return touchdown, it was 10-10 at halftime.
In the second half, the problems flipped. The PSU offense got rolling with a 10-yard McSorley touchdown and a 27-yard score from freshman Ricky Slade, but after forcing two punts to start the third quarter, the defense lost its way.
- First half plays and yardage: Penn State 38-160 (4.2), App State 26-97 (3.7)
- Second half plays and yardage: App State 45-344 (7.6), Penn State 37-249 (6.7)
The Penn State defense features just three seniors, and they all balled out. Linebacker Koa Farmer, corner Amani Oruwariye, and safety Nick Scott combined for 19 tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack, a forced fumble, a pass breakup, and the game-sealing overtime interception.
This is still a young unit, though; half the two-deep is made of freshmen and sophomores, and they took their eye off the ball late in the game. Over a period of six possessions, they allowed 305 yards and four touchdowns, and they needed a bailout from McSorley, who led a perfect one-minute scoring drive.
For the game, App State out-gained PSU by 17 yards (451-434) and 0.4 per play (5.9-5.5). Only excellent drive finishing and Oruwariye’s late pick saved the day. But there wasn’t one specific game trait that made you think, “Oh, PSU is doomed this year.”
Also, Appalachian State is damn good.
The Mountaineers have finished 40th or better in S&P+ for three straight years, going 30-9 in that span. Quarterback Taylor Lamb is gone, but Thomas was Lamb’s backup last season and looked solid, and all-Sun Belt running back Jalin Moore enjoyed 124 combined rushing and receiving yards.
So should we be worried about PSU?
Perhaps, but they weren’t struggling with the dregs of the Sun Belt. They’re breaking in young players and could find themselves.
That said, this week’s trip to Pitt is huge.
- Win, and you get tune-ups against Kent State and Illinois and are an increasingly confident 4-0 when Ohio State comes to town on September 29.
- Lose, and you’re in danger of falling to 3-3 when Michigan State visits after the Buckeyes.
Michigan State nearly lost because last year’s flaws were magnified.
Mark Dantonio’s Spartans needed late contributions from their veterans — namely, captains Brian Lewerke and Joe Bachie — to survive. But there has to be concern here, considering a) Utah State likely isn’t as solid as App State, and b) MSU was dragged down by last year’s issues.
Defensively, Michigan State dominated the run in 2017 (fourth in Rushing S&P+) but was merely good against the pass (30th in Passing S&P+). The Spartans prevented big plays, but opponents not named Rutgers completed 65 percent of their passes against MSU over the second half of the season.
Utah State’s Jordan Love completed 66 percent. And he clustered his successes nicely: on four scoring drives, he completed 15 of 18 passes for 204 yards. The Aggies still needed a third-quarter pick six from Gaje Ferguson to find a lead late, but they followed a recipe that others followed in 2017.
They also shut down the State run game. That’s pretty common, too.
MSU was one of the most run-heavy teams in the country on standard downs despite having a bad run game, and on Friday night, LJ Scott averaged just 3.7 yards per carry over 23 rushes. Half of MSU’s first down snaps were handoffs to Scott; they had a 21 percent success rate. The other half of snaps had a 44 success rate. It’s frustrating to watch because it feels like the Spartans give up free yardage predictably.
As always, though, State had Lewerke. The Spartans’ attack basically asks Lewerke to make a bunch of high-pressure passes. He did against USU, going 6-for-8 for 82 yards on third down.
I’m pretty confident that USU will be a solid MWC team this year, but this was still a disappointing performance. That said, Sparty won 10 games with a sometimes inefficient pass defense and a frustratingly predictable offense. Every successful MSU team under Dantonio seems to have one or two of these — they happened against 4-8 Maryland in 2017, 2-10 Purdue and 4-8 Rutgers in 2015, etc. That didn’t stop them from reaching the CFP in 2015 or beating Michigan and Penn State last season.
So should we be worried about MSU?
If they lose at Arizona State this Saturday, we’ll talk. Until then, this feels like same old Michigan State.
Some other random stat observations as I wait for the first updated S&P+ rankings to finish updating:
- Another Big Ten team was at least half-disappointing on Saturday. Ohio State’s defense managed to allow 31 points and 6.2 yards per play to an Oregon State that only topped 28 points once against FBS competition last year. Granted, that meant a longer debut for Dwayne Hawkins, who looked spectacular (22-for-30 for 313 yards and five touchdowns). And granted, it was Oregon State’s first game under Jonathan Smith, who had a full off-season to plan some surprises. We won’t put this in the RED ALERT category ... yet.
- Mississippi State made 17 tackles for loss in Moorhead’s debut, a 63-6 win over Stephen F. Austin. Defensive coordinator Bob Shoop’s got the best line he’s ever worked with, and it didn’t wait long to make an impact. Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons each recorded 3.5 TFLs, and five other linemen took part in at least one.
- MSU quarterback Keytaon Thompson, starting for the suspended Nick Fitzgerald, was extremely Trace-McSorley-in-2016, completing just 13 of 31 passes ... for 364 yards and five touchdowns. He also rushed for 109 yards.
- In the “also a pretty good thing for your defense” category, Fresno State forced seven turnovers — two fumble recoveries and five interceptions — against a vastly overmatched Idaho in a 79-13 win. Even more rare than seven takeaways, though? The 79 points. Since 2000, only Missouri (in 2016 vs. Delaware State) and Oklahoma (in 2007 vs. North Texas) hit a seventy-niner.
- The team that best split the difference between TFLs and takeaways? Perhaps Virginia Tech, which managed 14 of the former and five of the latter in Monday night’s easy upset of Florida State.
- Missouri is still going deep. :) :) :)
- A moment of appreciation for Hawaii, which has managed 102 points and 1,139 yards in two games. Change was the name of the game for Nick Rolovich’s Rainbow Warriors — they suffered unexpected transfers, but they also embraced Rolovich’s run-and-shoot roots. The offense looks great on quarterback Cole McDonald, who has completed 72 percent of his passes at 15.1 yards per completion, with nine touchdowns and no picks. Juniors John Ursua and Cedric Byrd have combined for 39 catches, 561 yards, and seven TDs. Sophomore Fred Holly III has 190 combined rushing and receiving yards. And Colorado State and Navy, their first two victims, were bowl teams last year.
- We had three 200-yard rushers in Week 1: Texas A&M’s Trayveon Williams (240 yards against Northwestern State), Ole Miss’ Scottie Phillips (204 against Texas Tech) ... and Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey, who rushed 15 times for 200 yards while throwing for 184 yards in a 55-42 win at WMU. Dungey is never afraid to take hits for yards — he’s a little too unafraid, considering his injury history — but it worked in Kalamazoo.
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