World Cup 2026: Knockout round scenarios for France, Norway, and Group I

Both France and Norway won their opening matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Those two teams can book a spot in the knockout rounds on Monday, but it is possible that the winner of Group I comes down to the heavyweight bout between those two side in the final match of group play.

Here are the scenarios in Group I ahead of the second set of matches in group play at the 2026 World Cup.

Here are the standings in Group I ahead of the two matches scheduled for Monday, June 22.

Here is the schedule for the remaining matches in Group I play. All times listed are Eastern.

Monday, June 22

France vs. Iraq, 5:00 p.m.
Norway vs. Senegal, 8:00 p.m.

Friday, June 26

Norway vs. France, 3:00 p.m.
Senegal vs. Iraq, 3:00 p.m.

Here are the scenarios in Group I, ahead of the two matches set for June 22. Note, the winner of Group I likely comes down to the match between Norway and France on June 26.

France clinches a spot in the Round of 32 with a win over Iraq, provided Senegal does not beat Norway.

Norway clinches a spot in the Round of 32 with a win over Senegal, provided Iraq does not beat France.

Neither side can clinch the knockout round this week, nor can either side be eliminated. These two teams play each other in the final match of group play, and a win for either team would keep them in the running for a spot in the Round of 32 as a third-place team.

Now we get to the tiebreaker scenarios that come into play with Group I.

Here is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year. If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.

In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.

If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.

If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.

That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams.

That leads us to why Norway nor France can clinch the group on Monday. With those two teams playing each other in the final set of matches, there is still a path for both teams to win the group. Let’s use this hypothetical: Norway beats Senegal, but Iraq shocks the world and beats France. In that scenario Norway would have six points, and both Iraq and France would have three. Iraq would own the tiebreaker over France due to the head-to-head win.

But then in the final set of matches, France beats Norway, and Senegal beats Iraq. France and Norway would each have six points, but France would win the group because of the head-to-head tiebreaker with Norway given the win over them.

That is why the winner of Group I very likely comes down to the final set of matches.

Also, at the moment Norway leads the group ahead of France, due to goal differential.