World Cup 2026: Knockout round scenarios for Argentina and Group J

Monday’s slate of matches could determine a winner of Group J at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Entering the second match day in the group, Argentina and Austria are atop the table with three points each. As luck would have it, Lionel Messi and company are set to take on Austria on Monday, and if there is a winner, that side will clinch a spot in the Round of 32.

And depending on the result from the match between Jordan and Algeria, that hypothetical winner could also clinch the group.

Here are the current scenarios for Group J.

Here are the current standings in Group J, ahead of matches set for Monday, June 22.

Here are the standings in Group J, ahead of the two matches set for Monday, June 22. All times listed are Eastern.

Monday, June 22

Argentina vs. Austria, 1:00 p.m.
Jordan vs. Algeria, 11:00 p.m.

Saturday, June 27

Algeria vs. Austria, 10:00 p.m.
Jordan vs. Argentina, 10:00 p.m.

Here are the scenarios in Group J, ahead of the matches set for Monday, June 22.

An Argentina win would clinch a spot for Lionel Messi and company in the Round of 32. In addition, Argentina will clinch Group J — and book a spot with the second-place team in Group H — if Jordan loses or draws against Algeria. More on this in a moment.

If Austria upsets Argentina, that win would book a spot for Austria in the Round of 32. In addition, an upset win over Argentina coupled with an Algeria draw or loss against Jordan, would clinch Group J for Austria.

Algeria will be eliminated with a loss to Jordan, plus an Austria win or draw against Argentina.

Jordan will be eliminated with a loss to Algeria, and an Argentina win or draw against Algeria.

Now we get to the tiebreaker scenarios that come into play with Group J, starting with the matches set for Monday, June 22.

Here is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year. If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.

In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.

If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.

If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.

That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams.

Now we can look at how these may impact the scenarios, using Argentina as an example. As noted above, Argentina can win Group J with a win over Algeria, provided Jordan does not beat Algeria. That qualifier is due to the tiebreaker. Say Argentina wins against Algeria, but Jordan beats Algeria. Argentina would have six points, and Jordan would have three.

With Jordan and Argentina playing in the final set of matches, a Jordan win over Argentina would give them the first tie breaker, the “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned”. That would mean Jordan wins the group.

The same line of analysis applies to Austria, as they face Algeria in the final set of matches.