David Montgomery start or sit: Week 1 fantasy football advice

The Detroit Lions will head to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers as 2.5-point underdogs. The over/under total is 47.5, which ties for second-highest of the weekend. The Lions have their core still together; a core that averaged 33 points per game, the highest in the league. They did lose OC Ben Johnson to the Bears, so there is a little concern they might not be as efficient, but even a dip in offense would keep them in the top 5 pretty easily.

The Lions running backs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, both had fantasy value, with Montgomery getting the bulk of the goal line work on a team that puts up tremendous points per game. But, we also saw Gibbs truly blow up, especially when Montgomery went down with a knee injury late in the season. With that extra push, he ended up leading the league in PPR fantasy points.

Montgomery is back and healthy and ready to roll though. The team doesn’t want to be forced to give Gibbs that much work so he can have something left in the tank for the stretch run, but that doesn’t mean new OC John Morton won’t tweak their splits, going more to Gibbs this season.

Below, we’ll go over David Montgomery outlook in fantasy football for Week 1.

If we look at Montgomery’s numbers last season, he was RB11 in fantasy before his knee injury, with 16 touches and 83 total yards per game, along with 12 total touchdowns. If those 16 touches fall closer to 10, then we probably have a problem. If they stay close and he retains the goal line work, we can still feel good about him being a consistent fantasy start.

The Packers make for a tough matchup on the ground, as they ranked 8th in rushing EPA allowed per play and seventh in rushing yards allowed last season. But, until Montgomery shows us he isn’t going to be a touchdown machine with a decent chunk of yards per game, I’m still flexing him out at least.

Start. He’s better in standard leagues, but he isn’t devoid of receptions, as he averaged 2.6 per game last year.

Start. I do feel better about starting him in standard leagues. If you happen to be in a small PPR league, he’s probably okay to sit for better options.