In one of my leagues this week, I started, among others, Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Mike Evans and the Philadelphia defense.
The Ticker, Week 11: Be proactive on the waiver wire, not reactive
If I had been a little more forward-thinking in one of my leagues, I might not have lost despite employing some record performances. Don’t make that mistake.


I lost that matchup.
These are the things that happen when your opponent has Justin Forsett, Marshawn Lynch, Martavis Bryant and Brandon Marshall.
Normally, I use the intros here to extol the virtues of using the waiver wire. But right now, I just want to whine. In that particular league, though, with Ahmad Bradshaw, Branden Oliver, Alfred Morris, DeSean Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, Tom Brady and Antonio Gates on a bye, and Andrew Hawkins hurt, I was stuck this week, and had to use the waiver wire for whatever was left. That meant Lorenzo Taliaferro as one of my running backs, and that meant Andre Holmes as one of my wide receivers. They combined for one point. I lost by eight.
The waiver wire can be a cruel mistress. I wasn’t shooting for Taliaferro or Holmes; they were all that was left. Hawkins’ injury was unavoidable, but Taliaferro was my fault. I could have prepared better for being without Bradshaw, Morris and Oliver all at the same time, but I didn’t, meaning I got stuck.
Which is why you need to be proactive on the wire. (See what I did there? It started as just another fantasy bad-beat story, and I extolled the virtues of the wire anyway. I got skills, y’all.) Which brings us to Week 11 of The Ticker, a stock market-inspired trip through the waiver wire. There are six categories:
Stocks I’m buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I believe it
Stocks I’m not buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I don’t believe it
Stocks I’m selling: high-owned players who struggled, and I’m bailing on them a bit
Stocks I’m not selling: high-owned players who struggled, but I still trust them
Hedges: handcuffs; low-owned guys who have a starter in front of them, but injuries or starter awfulness could change things
Futures market: low-owned guys without an obvious line to fantasy productivity yet, but there are things that could change in that department
(All ownership percentages are as of Monday morning.)
Honestly, considering the sheer number of players who are owned in the league I mentioned at the top, I probably wasn’t going to win no matter what I did. But that’s the exception. Most of the time, there’s some combination of players to get you the win. You can find it if you look hard enough.
Stocks I’m buying
Cecil Shorts III, WR, JAC (41 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues)
The Jaguars are on a bye in Week 11, which is good news for Allen Hurns, who left Sunday's game with a concussion. But Shorts has been the one battling health issues all season, and he looks to be healthy now. If you were starting a team from scratch and could pick any Jacksonville receiver with a promise of health, Shorts would be the clear choice over Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. If you've been scuffling around at receiver, Shorts is a currently overlooked option who at least has the potential to have more games like his five-catch, 119-yard one Sunday.
Billy Cundiff, K, CLE (11 percent)
Recommending a kicker! Dan Bailey and Justin Tucker are both off in Week 11, meaning at least two fantasy owners in every league will be searching for someone. Cundiff is probably the most famous-for-failure kicker still doing the job in the NFL, but this season, he has seven games with at least seven fantasy points. Only five kickers have done it more often, and their ownership percentages are 94, 87, 49, 87 and 91. Cundiff, at 11 percent, has had at least five fantasy points in every game but one. He's a little-owned replacement who should do well.
Drew Stanton, QB, ARI (1 percent)
The only game of Stanton’s this season that it’s really fair to draw any conclusions from is Week 3. Week 2, he didn’t know he was starting until a couple of hours before game time. Week 4, he got hurt partway through. So Week 3 is the only appropriate time to really evaluate Stanton’s performance. In that game, against a perfectly strong San Francisco defense, Stanton put up 18 fantasy points, a 98.5 passer rating, two touchdowns and no turnovers. At this point, we should go ahead and just hand Bruce Arians the NFL Coach of the Year trophy, and he’ll have Stanton in position to do well as a mid-range QB2 this week.
Stocks I’m not buying
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC (48 percent)
I mean, sure, if you need a wide receiver to give you a reliable five to eight fantasy points, Bowe is fine. He's the Chiefs' only real wide receiver, and as such, he's averaging five catches and 61 yards a game. If the rest of your roster is strong and all you want to do is avoid a zero, Bowe doesn't bother me in the slightest. But he appears to be almost entirely without upside. Bowe has no touchdowns this year (somewhat famously, no Chiefs wide receivers do). Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce are far better scoring weapons than anyone else in Kansas City, and it's hard to see that changing. Bowe comes with a super-low ceiling.
Mychal Rivera, TE, OAK (33 percent)
The tight end position has been a wasteland this year, it's true. But even as bad as it has been, I am not buying Rivera. The Raiders have done this several times this season. Rod Streater was the pass catcher to own at the start of the season. Then it was James Jones for a bit. Then Andre Holmes. The last few weeks, it has been Rivera. Sure, Streater got hurt, but the rest of the guys have just ebbed and flowed with no real fantasy production to them. Let Rivera offer whatever production he's going to offer on the waiver wire. If nothing else -- if Rivera were really going to be something, wouldn't he be it by now? There's got to be a more trustworthy option out there for you.
Josh McCown, QB, TAM (14 percent)
In theory, this is obvious. It’s Josh freakin’ McCown. But after a 19-point fantasy day against Atlanta, even rushing for 39 yards, McCown now gets to man the helm against Washington and Chicago before the defenses get tough again. Maybe you see that and are tempted by McCown. But any time you think that, step back and remember: It’s Josh freakin’ McCown.
Stocks I’m selling
Steve Smith, WR, BAL (92 percent)
You’re familiar with the phrase “two ships passing in the night”? Through five games, Steve Smith was riding high, with 60 fantasy points. Torrey Smith, meanwhile, was scuffling along at 22 in the same time frame. Then in Week 6, the two receivers put up an identical 17 fantasy points. Since, Torrey Smith had 39 fantasy points in four games, while Steve Smith has 13. That ship thing is an apt metaphor, I gotta say.
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN (88 percent)
Between Hillman's injury that could or could not cost him a couple of weeks (reports are still conflicting), the at-long-last emergence of C.J. Anderson, and the return of Montee Ball, Hillman might have had some worries to begin with. But all of that combined with Hillman's tremendous falloff in yards per carry the last few weeks (4.7 through Week 8, 1.8 the two weeks since), and ... well, he'll always have Weeks 6-8 to look back on. I don't think I'm dropping Hillman if I have him, but I'm certainly not marking him down as a sure thing.
Stocks I’m not selling
A.J. Green, WR, CIN (100 percent)
I feel like there are secret superstar wide receiver parties, and the stars who also get good quarterbacks, like Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson, just laugh at the guys like Green and Larry Fitzgerald, who have floated around big chunks of their careers just hoping for a competent passer. But Andy Dalton has struggled before; eventually, one way or another, Green gets his production, and he will again this year in the long run. Heck, before Thursday, the only game all season where Green played and put up fewer than 10 fantasy points was Week 2, when he got hurt inside the game's first couple of minutes. He'll be fine.
Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF (94 percent)
There's a caveat here. If you're looking for a wide receiver for Week 11 specifically, yes, I'm selling on Watkins all day long. Playing on a short week against a good Miami defense Thursday night, Watkins is a scary fantasy play, even if he weren't dealing with a groin injury. But for the rest of the year, Watkins projects to be healthy, and gets to face a rest-of-season schedule of the Jets, Browns, Broncos, Packers, Raiders and Patriots. He's proven to be a stud, on a Bills team fairly devoid of them, and not many receivers have a tastier slate from Week 12 on.
Hedges
LeGarrette Blount, RB, PIT (20 percent)
The Steelers haven't had their bye yet, and some of that might have been reflected in the most recent performances of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. The two studs have been used heavily this season, but both struggled Sunday, and while I can't definitively connect the lack of a bye to those struggles, I can give the numbers a strong side-eye. If Bell is tiring, Blount could benefit to the tune of a few extra carries. But the big reason for his inclusion here is that every last Le'Veon Bell owner needs to also be a LeGarrette Blount owner. If you own Bell, you're starting him as long as he's healthy. So why own a Reggie Bush or a Steven Jackson who will never crack your lineup? Own Blount and you know where your starting slot will come from all season long.
Daniel Herron, RB, IND (0 percent)
As a Colts fan, I have really enjoyed this resurgent Ahmad Bradshaw season, and even Trent Richardson has started to look competent again. But neither running back comes with a spotless medical history by any means, and so much of Bradshaw's production -- six receiving touchdowns, to be specific -- screams for regression that you have to wonder if the third-year Herron will find himself with some relevance before all is said and done. I can see it.
Futures market
Marcedes Lewis, TE, JAC (1 percent)
Another week, another injured tight end. Maybe this isn't the deepest of dives, but this position is just such a disaster. There are, if you are being really generous and kind, 13 currently active tight ends with any real fantasy relevance. In theory, that means everyone can have one in most leagues. But that's really stretching for names, and even then, I know that I've had to resort to guys not on that list like Zach Ertz, Tim Wright and Niles Paul multiple times. So it's not that simple. Lewis had 13 points in Week 2, the week he got hurt, and he's due back as early as Week 12. If you're scuffling along, Lewis could be a savior.
Shaun Hill, QB, STL (0 percent)
I mentioned this in Monday's Worst of the Week column, but the reasonably good games put up by Austin Davis in Weeks 3 and 5 (the team was off in Week 4) might have been the worst thing for the Rams this season, because it gave the illusion that Davis was actually good. Take out his 21 and 26 fantasy points in those games, and Davis has averaged 8.1 fantasy points a game this season. He hasn't put up more than eight in a game since Week 7. There's just no reason to keep running him out there, and while Shaun Hill isn't great, he just has to be better. If you're in a multi-QB league and the well is drying up, here's a guy who has to have a starting job sooner rather than later. Doesn't he? Geez, Rams.

























