Hey, congratulations on making the playoffs! You did lots of good things this year and made lots of right plays, and got wickedly lucky!
The Ticker, Week 14: Everything’s different on the waiver wire now
When the playoffs start, your roster-building strategy changes. But hey, you made the playoffs, and good job on that.
(And no, I will not cotton to any argument against luck. It wasn't skill that made you avoid Adrian Peterson, just to name a name. If you made the playoffs, you were good. But you were also really lucky.)
Now it's the playoffs in most leagues, and in some ways, the game changes. I remember in one of my drafts before the season, I used a late pick on DeAngelo Williams, and two different drunk guys at my draft nodded and said "Starting quarterback in the NFL," as a perfect rationalization for the pick. And it was, because a starting running back, a high-floor, middling-ceiling guy, can be perfectly helpful in the regular fantasy season, and is easy to drop if a roster spot becomes necessary.
In the fantasy playoffs, though, DeAngelo Williams (or equivalent) becomes pretty darn unhelpful. You don't care about your fifth running back or your fifth receiver - if Matt Forte gets hurt and you have to run Bishop Sankey out there because he's a "starting running back," you've already lost.
No, in the playoffs, your bench should largely be one of two things:
- Guys who have a zero-point floor, but if pressed into service, could find themselves stumbling into more significant performances.
- Matchup plays, guys who you won't start in a certain week because they are, for example, a running back against the Ravens, but then they play the Falcons the next week. You plan ahead in the playoffs far more than you do in the regular season.
Either way, DeAngelo Williams, Bishop Sankey and, just to name a name, Donnie Avery have no place on a fantasy roster in the playoffs. Find guys who could do more than just “have a job.”
With that in mind, this is The Ticker, my stock-minded trip through the waiver wire. There are six categories:
Stocks I’m buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I believe it
Stocks I’m not buying: low-owned players who did well the week before, and I don’t believe it
Stocks I’m selling: high-owned players who struggled, and I’m bailing on them a bit
Stocks I’m not selling: high-owned players who struggled, but I still trust them
Hedges: handcuffs; low-owned guys who have a starter in front of them, but injuries or starter awfulness could change things
Futures market: low-owned guys without an obvious line to fantasy productivity yet, but there are things that could change in that department
(All ownership percentages are as of Monday morning.)
Congratulations again. And you gotta build your roster in a different way now. This week, I’m doing another Twitter week, with relevant tweets about each player as an extra thought. Enjoy:
Stocks I’m buying
Johnny Manziel, QB, CLE (12 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues)
Johnny Manziel has scored as many touchdowns in 6 plays as Brian Hoyer has scored in the last 4 weeks.
— August Fagerstrom (@AugustF_ABJ) November 30, 2014 The Cleveland Browns are 2-2 in their last four games, which seems impossible when you look at Brian Hoyer's line in that time. He's had one touchdown pass against six interceptions since Week 9, and four against nine since Week 6. The team went to the rookie Manziel late Sunday, and while he didn't play much, he did score that touchdown. The Browns haven't officially committed to Manziel going forward, but let's be real here. And at the least, Manziel's running ability will keep his fantasy floor high. And with the weapons around him, he'll have plenty of scoring chances. I like his value as a reasonable QB2.
Connor Barth, K, DEN (10 percent)
Connor Barth now has four fewer field goals than Brandon McManus kicked in 11 games.
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) December 1, 2014 It's not that Connor Barth is a great kicker. If he were a great kicker, he probably wouldn't have still been unemployed in Week 13. (Extenuating circumstances with his Achilles injury, sure, but it's still basically true.) But in one game, he showed he's better than Brandon McManus, who missed four of 13 attempts while with Denver, and is now unemployed. A kicker for the Broncos should always be a fantasy factor, and McManus wasn't cutting it. Barth should.
Marqise Lee, WR, JAC (1 percent)
You know all the big name rookie WRs. But look at what Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief, and Davanta Adams are doing in Week 13. Class is 20 deep
— P. Schrager (@PSchrags) November 30, 2014 If Lee's sophomore year at USC had been his last in college, he'd have been a Sammy Watkins/Mike Evans/Odell Beckham Jr.-level draftee. He had 1,721 yards and 14 touchdowns that year. But after injuries hurt his 2013 production, he fell in the draft, and then more injuries robbed him of the early part of his 2014. He's healthy now, though, and has been getting more and more looks in the Jacksonville offense. Yet another rookie receiver to watch.
Stocks I’m not buying
Doug Martin, RB, TB (45 percent)
"There was life to him," Lovie Smith said of Doug Martin's strong play in the first half, including team's first rushing TD in 8 weeks.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 1, 2014 When the best you can say about your Week 1 starting running back in Week 13 is “there was life to him,” you know things aren’t great. Yeah, Martin had his first touchdown since Week 4 Sunday, and his second of the season. He also has to hang his hat on his “big game” consisting of 58 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. Just let him sit on the wire. You don’t need the heartache.
Blake Bortles, QB, JAC (7 percent)
Derek Carr and Blake Bortles are quarterbacks of the future... for CFL teams.
— Rob Pizzola (@robpizzola) November 30, 2014 This might be an overstatement, but it’s at least a funny one. Still, Sunday, with 194 passing yards, a touchdown and 68 yards on the ground, was Bortles’ second-best fantasy game as a rookie. In other words, this rookie has played 10 games, and his second-best one didn’t even involve 200 passing yards. The reason his ceiling has been so low is that Sunday was also Bortles’ first game all season without at least one turnover. Sure, he’s got almost nothing surrounding him, but I just haven’t seen anything in Bortles’ rookie season to tell me he’s the long-term solution to anything in Jacksonville.
Colt McCoy, QB, WAS (6 percent)
In all seriousness, there could be worse matchups for Manziel's first start. Against a team that gave up 392yds to Colt McCoy.
— Factory of Sadness (@SadFactory) December 1, 2014 I mean, sure, that tweet's more about Manziel. But it says something that we use McCoy's success as evidence of his opponent's failure. The Colts' defense is no great shakes (and that's the kind way to say it). As a long-time McCoy fan, I'd love it if I could give him my seal of approval, but really, if McCoy were ever going to be a big-time pro, he would have been by now. He's just a guy.
Stocks I’m selling
Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN (98 percent)
Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN (90 percent)
17 touches, 52 yards for Jeremy Hill; 11 touches, 53 yards for Gio Bernard. Snaps split right down the middle.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) December 1, 2014 Straight splits make sense for real football. Different looks, different types, minimize fatigue. All good things. But for fantasy, it just means neither guy has much of a ceiling. Alone, Bernard or Hill is a high-end RB2. Together, neither guy is much more than a low-end flex play, yet they’re still owned (and used) as much more than that.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE (67 percent)
If Johnny Manziel starts, Josh Gordan stays clean, and Jordan Cameron gets healthy the Browns offense will be fun to watch
— Timmy Whicher (@_tjw6_) December 1, 2014 In theory, this Browns' offense should be a lot of fun to watch. Manziel at quarterback, Crowell and Terrance West at running back, Gordon, Cameron, Andrew Hawkins,Miles Austin, Taylor Gabriel, Travis Benjamin catching passes. That's a stout group, and largely young. And it might turn out to be that exciting. The problem is this: We know Gordon will get his. Cameron, when (if?) healthy, will as well. Manziel likely will. Crowell? West? Hawkins? They're going to battle for scraps. It'll be a good football offense, but I don't trust the fantasy prospects there.
Stocks I’m not selling
Matt Forte, RB, CHI (100 percent)
#Bears handed off to Matt Forte one time in the game in a 1st-and-10 situation.
— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) November 28, 2014 The Bears played the early Thanksgiving game, and while I tried to monitor the game, I also love to cook, so this one was tough to pay close attention to. So after the game, I figured the Bears had leaned on Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, and it just didn't work out. And they did, but only through the air. The team completely went away from the rush, with only seven attempts. And I know the Lions have a super-elite run defense, but come on, Bears. Matt Forte is Matt Forte. Give him his touches, he'll get the yards eventually. And he'll be fine.
Anquan Boldin, WR, SF (86 percent)
Anquan Boldin, the baddest man in 49ers Universe: http://t.co/ZPXkZ1hYVq
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) November 24, 2014 Look at the date of that tweet. It was posted Sunday night, after San Francisco's Week 12 game but (obviously) before their Thanksgiving debacle. I can find all sorts of reasons to be down on Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore and especially Colin Kaepernick. Boldin, meanwhile, had just been chugging along before Week 13, averaging 10.7 fantasy points a game over his last six coming in. They won't be facing the Seahawksevery week. The entire offense might not be fine, but Boldin will.
Hedges
Andre Roberts, WR, WAS (4 percent)
Last season Pierre Garcon caught at least 5 passes in every game and just 5 twice. This season 9 games with 4 or less inc last 8 of 9.
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) December 1, 2014 DeSean Jackson is hurt. We know that. And while the early reports are that he could play Sunday, that's a dicey proposition. Meanwhile, that tweet. Pierre Garcon, if you haven't noticed, has eight combined fantasy points in his last five games, and four in his last four. He has had four or fewer fantasy points eight times in 12 games. Roberts' usage will rise, one way or another.
Nate Washington, WR, TEN (1 percent)
#Titans WR Justin Hunter remains in a Houston hospital for the next day or so after a lacerated spleen. Belief is he won't need surgery.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 1, 2014 We aren't going to see Justin Hunter on the field again this season. That's not official, but come on. Meanwhile, Washington has been hanging on the fringes of that offense all year, with four or five targets and a handful of yards a game. With Hunter and Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker all there as well, there just weren't enough touches to go around. Now that Hunter's out, Washington (and the others) will see his looks increase. Wright and Walker are already owned. Washington isn't, and if you're desperate, maybe good things can ensue.
Futures market
Tennessee Titans defense (8 percent)
JAX faces HOU next week. If HOU D scores 13 fantasy points, JAX will have allowed each total between 7 and 18 this season with no repeats.
— Daniel Kelley (@danieltkelley) December 1, 2014 Self-tweet-reference! The Tennessee defense isn't great; it isn't even particularly good. The unit has averaged two points per game since Week 6. But for all its progress as an offense, Jacksonville is still ridiculously generous to opposing defenses. No one's scored fewer than seven. The Titans play the Jaguars in Week 16 after playing the two New York teams in Weeks 14 and 15. That's as friendly a fantasy-defense schedule as you'll find, and that's before considering the possibility that they'll get a nothing-to-play-for Colts team in Week 17. I'm expecting a fast-rising unit down the stretch.
Donte Moncrief, WR, IND (4 percent)
Donte Moncrief still playing somewhat limited snaps (think TY usage 2013), but making most of them. Fantastic situation long-term. #Colts
— Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) December 1, 2014 Sunday was very Martavis Bryant-esque for Moncrief, who had two scores and 134 yards despite only three catches and four targets. But he also had that Week 8 game against theSteelers, when he had 113 yards and a score on seven catches and twelve targets. As that tweet notes, when Moncrief is getting the chances, he's making them work. And, considering the general struggles of Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks, Moncrief's likely to continue to get those chances and more.
