So I have a job that isn’t just “watch sports all day.” As it happens, Tuesday at about 3:30, I got crazy busy, and couldn’t keep an eye on the TV or my phone or the Internet.
Fantasy football 2015: Impact of free agency, trades on running backs
All this, and Adrian Peterson might still switch teams.
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As it also happens, Tuesday at around 3:30 was also when everything in the world happened. Next time I got a look at my phone, Jimmy Graham was a Seahawk, Sam Bradford was an Eagle, Haloti Ngata was a Lion and I think Will Ferrell was a baseball player?
Anyway, in the wake of this week after what had already been a crazy NFL offseason, this seemed like a good time to run through the fantasy implications of what we’ve seen. With not many exceptions, I’m only looking at guys changing teams. Guys who stayed where they were aren’t that exciting to evaluate. Below are the running backs. Check back later today for the rest of the positions.
DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews to Philadelphia
On its surface, you have to like Murray going from one elite offensive line to another, and to an offense that promises to run as many plays as it can possibly work into each game. But I'm not in love with the 2015 Murray. First, obviously, he's going to be sharing a backfield with Mathews and incumbent Darren Sproles (for however long all three guys stay healthy, but of course that's built into their rankings). Second, Murray had 497 touches last year, counting playoffs, including 436 carries. That's ... well, that's insane. Chip Kelly has already said he doesn't expect Murray to be that much of a workhorse, but the work has already been worked. As Bomani Jones noted on Twitter, signing Murray now means the Cowboys got the yards, while the Eagles are paying for the carries.
In short, I expect Murray to still be a good running back -- he’s talented, and that’s still a good offensive line in an offense that doesn’t have a lot to scare you in the air -- but I can’t take him in the top five at the position. He’ll be in the top 10, but near the back of it in my rankings. Mathews looks like a more-than-adequate backup for Murray, but with Sproles handing the vast majority of the passing downs, Mathews won’t get enough work to be of help. He’s a handcuff or an if-you’re-desperate starter, but that’s about it. Sproles, meanwhile, will still have his perpetual PPR value, but it will be fairly muted, all things considered.
LeSean McCoy to Buffalo
When the season ended, you could have found several analysts who loved the idea of McCoy as a bounce back candidate, top five at the position at least. The move to Buffalo obviously hurts that something fierce. Fred Jackson likely remaining with the Bills means McCoy still has a talented running mate to take some touches, a la Sproles, and now he'll ply his trade in a lesser offense surrounded by a lesser offensive line. Off a disappointing season, -- 13th in fantasy scoring among running backs, barely ahead of Joique Bell and Mark Ingram -- McCoy can't be a top-10 running back. But hey, it's still LeSean McCoy. You could do worse.
Jackson, meanwhile, slides back. When he more-or-less backed up C.J. Spiller, you knew he'd get his fair share of touches, because you knew Spiller would get hurt and/or disappoint (ouch: sorry, C.J.), but behind a better running back, and having just turned 34, Jackson doesn't offer a lot of fantasy value on his own.
Frank Gore to Indianapolis
The arrival of Gore also heralded the release of Trent Richardson, so, you know, as a Colts fan, huzzah. The problem, though, is that Gore is hardly exciting as a workhorse himself. When he looked destined for Philadelphia, you could envision a scenario where the aging Gore only had so many carries, and as such didn't wear down or suffer any ill effects. The Colts have given every indication Vick Ballard will get another shot, and Dan Herron will do some stuff, but the job is still Gore's. And while it's hard to really note decline in Gore's stats -- 4.3 yards per carry last year is more-or-less that he's had since 2007, and his 1,106 rushing yards is consistent with nearly all his 16-game seasons over his career -- the prospect of him as the primary ball-carrier in Indianapolis is worrisome. Gore will be a low-end RB2 at best next season, and you'd rather have him as a flex.
Meanwhile, Gore's departure from San Francisco turns one of the most talked-about predictions over the last year into reality. Carlos Hyde, a rookie a year ago, will be the No. 1 ball-carrier for the 49ers, with no real second in-line as of now. Hyde promises to be an exciting second-year player, shaping up as a high-end RB2 for now.
Shane Vereen to the Giants
A four-year running back with 217 total carries sounds weird, but we all know the situation with Vereen (and Sproles, and Roy Helu, and Marcel Reece, etc.), and it's, in my opinion, a dramatically undervalued skill set. Sproles and Vereen, and maybe Pierre Thomas, are the only running backs who primarily catch passes, and who have really gotten a lot of publicity. I remain puzzled by the Raiders' usage (or lack thereof) of Reece over the last forever.
Anyway, Vereen joins Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams in New York, forming what is starting to look like a very strong Giants offense for 2015. Those three will combine with Odell Beckham Jr., a returning Victor Cruz, Larry Donnell and Eli Manning to score a lot of points. Unfortunately, Vereen won't get a lot of carries, and will see a lot of his theoretical catches go to those receivers. This is likely a good football move for the Giants, but it makes Vereen barely usable in standard fantasy, and only mildly interesting in PPR. Jennings, meanwhile, will be the primary carrier as long as he's healthy, but his injury history means you can't count on him. Williams is just a handcuff, and not much of one at that.
