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FanDuel roster advice: Who should we use, and who should we avoid?
Every week, we’ll look at some places where it does or doesn’t make sense to use some specific players. Today is the start!
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The season starts Sunday (Pittsburgh-New England excepted). That means the weekly fantasy season starts in earnest today, Saturday, with people doing research, setting lineups and selecting players.
Each week in this space, I’m going to run through some situations where I do (or do not) like what is in store for a given player. Maybe it’s matchup-based, maybe it’s injury, maybe it’s not that much more than a gut feeling. But when you’re sitting down to set up your FanDuel, it can be daunting. There are a lot of names there.
This can help cull some of them. Or highlight some others. Let’s do it.
Quarterbacks
Good situations
- Part of the reason I'm high on Eli Manning this season, in addition to his stout offense, is the miserableness of that New York Giants defense. Well, the Giants play the Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo ($8,700). No one is hurt yet in that Dallas offense, and there isn't a running back like DeMarco Murray within a hundred-mile radius. Romo will be throwing a lot.
- Normally, it's smart to shy away from guys just back from big injuries. But Carson Palmer ($7,700) has had more time than normal for his recovery, and his history with Larry Fitzgerald is pretty good. Against what doesn't look like a strong New Orleans Saints defense, he should be a reasonable mid-range investment.
- Dumpster diving? The price for Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,800) was set before Geno Smith got hurt, when there was some question about who might start. Fitzpatrick has never had an offense around him as good as this one, with the exception of last year, when he had 17 touchdowns against eight interceptions before his injury. Now he has a full season with a strong offense. I think he's crazy underrated.
Bad situations
- There's every chance Peyton Manning ($9,100) is back to his regular self for this season, and that late-season swoon was just because of that quadriceps. Is that a guarantee? No. If I had Manning in season-long fantasy, I'd use him with no worries. But in a single-week game? Let's hold off on that shaky investment until we see.
- I'm the party-pooper who is less excited about Sam Bradford ($7,500) and the Philadelphia Eagles offense than most. And I say that as a guy who used Mark Sanchez to win a title last year. It might work out fine, but there is a lot of flame-out potential there. This is another situation where I could use him in season-long, but for a single week, I'd rather wait.
Running backs
Good situations
- The Oakland Raiders were miserable against running backs last year. It might get better as the season goes on, but it isn't going to be markedly better right away. Week 1, Oakland faces Jeremy Hill ($8,600), who has the chance to be one of the game's best for the season. I'm all over Hill this week.
- My reservations about Frank Gore ($7,500) for a full-season league largely have to do with that word "full." He's getting older and has a lot of tread on the tires. Yes, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Indianapolis, but the short version of this is the early part of Gore's season is the part I want to participate in.
- I keep seeing people saying that they want no part of the Cleveland Browns offense. With Josh McCown and a sub-par receiver and tight end crew, I get that part of it. But the running backs -- namely Isaiah Crowell ($6,100) -- are better than the rest, and get to run behind what should be a really good offensive line. The New York Jets' run defense might not be as great as it was last year. Crowell is a strong play.
Bad situations
- Okay, I will totally admit that I might be wrong about Adrian Peterson ($9,200). He might be back to his old self all season long and win the rushing title. It's on the table. But are you so sure about a 30-year-old running back off a year's absence that you'll invest a big chunk of your salary cap in his first game back? Good lord, am I not.
- Even before LeSean McCoy ($8,400) spent the last couple weeks of preseason dealing with a hamstring issue, I was less than enthused about him. He's in a worse offense, behind a worse line, with a worse quarterback leading the way. And now he's at less than 100 percent. Stay away.
Wide receivers
Good situations
- Why isn't Jeremy Maclin ($7,600) getting all the love? Yes, there is the concern that Alex Smith might not be able to hit him deep, but the counter-argument to that is that he's never had a receiver who could get deep for him. Either way, Maclin is going to be a target monster with the Kansas City Chiefs. And FanDuel is a partial PPR game.
- Mike Evans might end up playing Sunday. That's looking more likely (though not yet a sure thing either way). But he won't be 100 percent regardless. That bodes well for Vincent Jackson ($7,200), who is the next best thing that offense has. On top of that, last year's touchdown discrepancy -- Evans had 12, Jackson two -- will likely balance out this year, and that could start as early as Week 1.
- Is it possible Crockett Gillmore, Maxx Williams and/or the mishmash of second-tier receivers in Baltimore pop? Sure. The more likely outcome is the Ravens -- in what could be a high-scoring game against Denver -- look for their one big-time target, and that is Steve Smith ($6,700) as he starts his final season.
Bad situations
- The injury to Arian Foster initially makes DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) look more promising. But he still doesn't have a great quarterback, and the absence of Foster means the absence of other weapons to distract defenses -- last year, Hopkins' fantasy production dropped about two points a game in the games Foster missed.
- After a strong debut season in Detroit, Golden Tate ($7,100) is getting a lot of attention. And that's all well and good, because if Calvin Johnson gets hurt again, Tate is really appealing. But absent that, there's just not as much to like. He's not going to be the focus of that offense by any means.
Tight ends
Good situations
- Last year, Martellus Bennett ($6,200) scored four touchdowns in the first three games, then two the rest of the season. The year before, it was three in the first two, then two the rest of the way. In 2012, he scored three in the first three, two after that. I don't know if there is anything to that, but this is a guy who always started hot, and fades. And this is the start of the season.
- If you're a rookie quarterback watching these big, fast, scary men coming at you, you are going to want to get rid of that dang football (projecting a bit, sure). Your receivers aren't elite, your running backs are hardly even competent. Your best bet is that handy little tight end who did so well last year with all those really bad quarterbacks. You look for Delanie Walker ($5,400).
Bad situation
- The absence of Jordy Nelson has people hyping Richard Rodgers ($4,900) beyond any reasonable levels. When Nelson or Greg Jennings got hurt in years past, sure, maybe Jermichael Finley rose a bit, but Rodgers is no Finley.
Defenses
Good situations
- I'm going to pound this hammer until you all believe me. Kirk Cousins is a miserable quarterback, both in real life and in fantasy football. He will turn the ball over at least twice Sunday, unless he's somehow benched first. The Miami defense ($4,700) would be a good play against just about any offense; against Washington, there isn't a better one.
- It's not just that Carolina has lost its top wide receiver. It's not just that the Carolina offensive line is made of colander. It's not just that Jonathan Stewart isn't guaranteed health for an hour at a time. It's all those things, plus the fact that the Jacksonville defense ($4,200) is going to be much improved this year.
Bad situation
- Just hammering this home. The San Francisco defense ($4,600) still has name value, but that offseason was so miserable, you can't get near them. I'm sure you knew, but sometimes you want to stress a point.
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