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FanDuel advice: Salary risers and fallers
When a value changes dramatically, it can spur action in the daily fantasy games.
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Theoretically, I’m here to offer some insight--some education if you will--into playing weekly fantasy football on FanDuel for the 2015 NFL season. Turns out, though, that I learned something in the process, so it’s a mutually beneficial relationship thing we’ve got going on here. Symbiosis!
See, last season, I would spend every week noting the salaries of each player. A quarterback becomes cheaper, I wonder why. A tight end shoots up, there's something there. I found it useful. But it literally meant creating an Excel file, writing down name after name, including salary after salary. I like to be thorough, so I'd go far deeper than made sense every week. I'm talking "Hey, what's LaMichael James' salary?" types of depth.
It took a while, is what I’m saying. And then last week, I mention that I’m doing that, and my boss is like, “Why don’t you just download the spreadsheet?”
Full stop.
As it turns out, there’s a link on the roster-selection page of every FanDuel tournament that lets you download a roster spreadsheet called, handily enough, “Download player list.” I had just never noticed it before, and I have now learned how to save many, many minutes each week.
I say this not to make me look dumb (well, not only that), but to point out that what I’m doing now (and what I did before in far more time) is an important tool in the weekly game. Value changes can tell you a lot.
You know how Vegas will set a line at, say, +13.5, and then the underdog is losing by 27 with six minutes to go, but will score a pair of garbage-time touchdowns to lose by 13? We look at it and gasp. “How do they know?” we wonder. Well, these sites do the same sort of things. Guys are priced at values that will get action, but also at prices commensurate with the value they’re likely to provide.
If a player sees his price go up significantly, there’s a reason. Maybe a positionmate got hurt, or maybe he became a starter. Same if the price goes the other way ... did he get injured, or are they facing a stellar defense? It’s not conclusive, but it’s information, and information is good. Some weeks, it means you want to invest in a guy whose price dropped because he presents new value; some weeks, it means avoid him because something’s wrong. That part’s up to you.
So today, I’m looking at guys who have seen their values change from Week 1 and wondering what the changes mean. I won’t give thoughts on all of them, because this could get long, but when there’s something to say, I will say it:
Quarterbacks
Notable risers: Johnny Manziel up $600 ($5,900 to $6,500); Marcus Mariota up $300 ($7,100 to $7,400)
Those were literally the only starting quarterbacks whose values rose more than $100. And the reasons for both are easy: Manziel is possibly the new Browns' starter, and Mariota ... well, he was really dang good in Week 1.
Notable fallers: Cam Newton down $700 ($8,400 to $7,700), Jay Cutler down $700 ($7,900 to $7,200), Aaron Rodgers down $400 ($9,700 to $9,300)
- These were interesting. Rodgers' drop makes sense, falling by virtue of playing the Seattle defense a week after playing Chicago. I get that.
- Cutler? That seems like a big fall for a guy who more-or-less did exactly what we'd expect a week ago, and now faces an Arizona defense that isn't really that special. That one surprises me. Is it the theoretical injury to Alshon Jeffery?
- And Newton drops for a pair of reasons. The first, and more obvious one, is that the Panthers go from playing Jacksonville to playing Houston. But the second one is that the Week 1 FanDuel prices were set before Kelvin Benjamin's ACL tear. Basically, Newton's Week 2 price is FanDuel saying "Oh yeah, he has no receivers."
Running backs
Notable risers: Benny Cunningham up $700 ($5,100 to $5,800), Chris Ivory up $500 ($6,400 to $6,900), Ameer Abdullah up $500 ($5,900 to $6,400)
- A week after surprising by gaining 122 total yards from scrimmage against Seattle, Cunningham becomes almost pricey this week. It strikes me as a bit impetuous of FanDuel; St. Louis plays Washington, which has a fine run defense in itself, and Tre Mason should be back and good to go. This seems like a sure stay-away.
- Again, the Week 1 prices were set well before the season started; if FanDuel hadn't come out until a few days before the season, I feel comfortable Abdullah would have been more expensive than $5,900. That said, Abdullah came through on that promise in Week 1. I still think we'll hear from Joique Bell before all is said and done, which could make Abdullah risky, but he's earned the higher price tag.
Notable fallers: Latavius Murray down $600 ($7,400 to $6,800), Melvin Gordon down $600 ($7,100 to $6,500), Frank Gore down $500 ($7,500 to $7,000), T.J. Yeldon down $500 ($7,000 to $6,500)
- Murray was a mild disappointment in Week 1, though he still reached 80 total yards from scrimmage, and did it in a game his team trailed by a lot early. But on top of that, the Raiders face the potent Baltimore run defense in Week 2. Those two things combine to make him more affordable.
- You have to assume the brains at FanDuel weren't counting on such a return from Danny Woodhead, because Gordon was an expensive little rookie in his first game. These two will level off.
Wide receivers
Notable risers: Donte Moncrief up $1,200 ($4,800 to $6,000), Terrance Williams up $1,000 ($5,300 to $6,300), Stevie Johnson up $1,000 ($4,700 to $5,700), Davante Adams up $900 ($5,500 to $6,400)
Thanks to the War Room, I’ve seen these names a bazillion times this week, as these are three popular waiver adds and Adams. Every increase makes sense — three injury replacements and the out-of-nowhere Stevie.
Notable fallers: Sammy Watkins down $1,000 ($7,600 to $6,600), Michael Floyd down $500 ($6,100 to $5,600), Calvin Johnson down $400 ($8,500 to $8,100)
I'll just address Watkins here. I was one of the lowest on him to open the season, out of fear of the team's quarterback situation. Well, Taylor looked at least competent in Week 1 ... except for the fact that Watkins caught zero passes, covered by Vontae Davis all game. There aren't many Vontae Davises out there. Watkins might not have deserved his $7,600 price tag, but he is certainly more valuable than a $1,000 downgrade.
Tight ends
Notable riser: Tyler Eifert up $900 ($5,000 to $5,900)
That’s the only tight end who rose more than $200. To you really need me to explain why? Nah, you don’t.
Notable faller: Austin Seferian-Jenkins down $200 ($4,700 to $4,500)
No tight end fell more than $200 from last week’s price, so I’ll just focus on Seferian-Jenkins, with a change that really surprises me. The Tampa Bay tight end had two touchdowns in Week 1, and while sure, maybe that was fluky, I don’t know why he got cheaper.
Kickers
Brandon McManus is literally the only current kicker whose value changes, and when the Week 1 prices were set, Connor Barth was on the Broncos with him.
Defense/special teams
Notable riser: Baltimore up $900 ($4,100 to $5,000)
Baltimore rises from one of the cheapest defenses to the No. 2 most expensive unit. On the one hand, it makes sense, having shut down the Broncos and moving on to face Oakland. On the other, the Broncos might not be the super-Broncos anymore, and Baltimore is now without Terrell Suggs for the year. This price jump might be too much.
Notable faller: Tampa Bay down $500 ($4,500 to $4,000)
This is FanDuel saying, “we didn’t trust Mariota in Week 1.” Tampa Bay’s defense doesn’t look like it will be anything special, but it got a boost facing a rookie quarterback on Sunday. This week, it’s a road game at New Orleans, which is ... not the same as a rookie quarterback.
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