Editor’s Note: FanDuel is running a $1,000,000 fantasy football league in week 2. The Top 46,000 teams win cash with $100,000 paid to first place. Join now!
FanDuel advice: The game gets harder, not easier
There were a lot of newbies playing the game in Week 1. The bad players will get weeded out, which means you have to do more research.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
I have no evidence to prove this, but I would be willing to bet that, on average, Week 1 of the NFL season is the absolute easiest FanDuel one-week fantasy football week of the season.
There are several reasons for this. First, as I detailed last week, prices for Week 1 are set well in advance of the season, to attract new players for as long as possible. That means injuries and what-have-you that chance in the week before the season don’t get accounted for in the salaries. Roles shift dramatically and quickly in the preseason, and that’s ripe for use.
On top of that, you’ve probably seen some of the DFS ads on TV, yeah? They air constantly, so unless you’re my mom (a member of the “Oh, I don’t own a TV” bourgeoisie, except that she does own a TV, only ever using it to watch horse racing), you’ve seen them a thousand times in the last couple weeks. And the reason is that the first week(s) of the NFL season is the perfect time to bring in new players.
It’s why my FanDuel pieces to start the season have tended toward the more basic advice. It’s why there are more games going right now than there will be later in the season. And it’s why it’s easier to win early on.
My buddy Greg texted me last Sunday morning: “So what’s this whole FanDuel thing about then?” A short lesson, a $7 deposit and one game played later, his account was at $300. He knows some things, and got advice from his obviously expert friend (me), but still, that’s not how this is supposed to go. You can win at FanDuel, and if you’re smart and good and dedicated you will win, but not $300 within an hour of learning what it even is.
So maybe you won last week. I did (not huge, but I will always take profit over not-profit). But this week will be harder than last week. And, more or less, every week that follows will be harder than the week that came before.
I don’t say that to dissuade participation. It’s still a fun game, and you still can make money. Maybe Greg makes another $300. But the point of that is just to say that an easy win in Week 1 won’t be as easy in Week 2.
Which means research! Which means what is below. Every week, I’m looking through players that have good and bad matchups for a daily game and/or guys whose salaries make them smarter or less smart investments:
Quarterbacks
Good situations
- I've driven this into the ground all week, but Matt Ryan ($8,700) gets to face a New York Giants team that couldn't stop a Dez Bryant-less Tony Romo when it absolutely had to last week, and Ryan has a Julio Jones in his pocket. I'm not worried about Jones' midweek injury concerns, and you shouldn't be either.
- Some weeks, I'll make what I think is a bold rankings call, having some guy a lot higher or lower than normal, and think I'll have found something interesting, only to realize everyone else had the same "innovative" thought. That's what happened this week with Carson Palmer ($7,800), who had a big Week 1 and now plays a subpar Chicago defense. Regardless, that's a good price for what should be a Week 2 stud quarterback.
- I'll admit my semi-love for Colin Kaepernick ($7,800) diminished a little when I realized he was the same price as Palmer. But Kaepernick gets to play a Pittsburgh team that has a really bad defense, and he looked better in Week 1 than he did most of last year. If I'm deciding between Kaepernick and Palmer in a vacuum, it's Palmer, but Palmer will also be a really popular add this week, and if you want to zag when everyone else zigs, Kaepernick is appealing as well.
Bad situations
- I'm sitting over here on my own on the Isle of No Sam Bradford ($7,500). Bradford looked awful for a big chunk of Monday night's game, and only looked good (and not very good) against a bad Atlanta defense. He's already had some injury concerns, and you'd never be surprised to see him leave a game early. Dallas has an underrated defense. The Philadelphia offense has enough upside that I don't mind stashing Bradford in a season-long league, but I wouldn't put a one-week game in his hands.
- I didn't think I'd need to mention this, but I've seen dozens of questions all week on Marcus Mariota ($7,400), who, yes, looked great in Week 1. But with Joe Haden opposite him this week, I'm going to say no to the rookie with middling weapons in his second career start.
Running backs
Good situations
- It's hard to recommend a running back, especially an expensive one, against Seattle. But after Benny Cunningham gained more than 100 total yards against the Seahawks a week ago, Eddie Lacy ($8,100) looks like a better play to me than I expected. The defense isn't as deep as it has been in the past, and Green Bay could stretch them thin.
- The Week 1 results won't show it, because the Jets have a strong defensive line, but the Cleveland offensive line is still a good one, and Isaiah Crowell ($5,800) is going to produce against a lesser Tennessee defense, and he'll do it for cheap.
- If LeSean McCoy plays, I don't expect him to be at full strength, meaning Karlos Williams ($4,700) will have a role in that offense at a super affordable price. If McCoy sits? Get Williams wherever the heck you can.
Bad situations
- The best-case scenario for Tre Mason ($7,200) this week includes Todd Gurley being held out another week and a full load of carries. Even if that happens, he's an average-to-just-above running back coming off injury against a strong Washington run defense with Nick Foles as his quarterback. I'm not getting anywhere near that nonsense.
- It stands to reason that, with a mishmash of other running backs behind him, LeGarrette Blount ($6,400) will go right back to being the feature back for the Patriots. But this is, as we all know, a team that refuses to cooperate with what we expect on the ground, and they are facing a stout Buffalo defense. I wouldn't invest in Blount for anything.
Wide receivers
Good situations
- Jordan Matthews was a stud, especially in PPR leagues, against Atlanta Monday night. And Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,700) is much better than Jordan Matthews. Really, that's all.
- You'd have liked more than four receptions and 49 yards from Brandin Cooks ($7,400) in Week 1, but he was targeted eight times. Put him at home against a Buccaneers defense that is not the Cardinals? He's a strong option.
- We've spent so much of the last few months infatuated with Allen Robinson that we sort of ignored Allen Hurns ($5,000). If I'm picking one, it's still Robinson, but he's also $700 more expensive than Hurns, and the difference isn't that much.
Bad situations
- The Colts put Vontae Davis directly on Sammy Watkins in Week 1, and took the talented Bills receiver completely out of the game. Davis might not be in man coverage again this week, but if he is, he'd likely shadow Brandon Marshall ($7,400), making him a really dicey proposition.
- T.Y. Hilton might or might not play for Indianapolis Monday night. If he does, I expect him to be Andrew Luck's top target. If he doesn't, I expect that honor to go to Donte Moncrief. Andre Johnson ($6,800) looked rough last year, but it was easy enough to chalk that up to his quarterback. He also looked old in Week 1, and while he was playing against a strong defense, I'm going to need to see some flashes of years-ago Andre Johnson before I start playing him in weekly games.
Tight ends
Good situations
- A week after catching two touchdowns, Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4,500) saw his FanDuel price actually drop by $200. That seems weird, especially since FanDuel hadn't accounted for Mike Evans' absence with his Week 1 salary. He's unlikely to catch two touchdowns again this week, but a tight end with that reasonable upside for that cheap a price is appealing.
- The absence of Dez Bryant is going to have a trickle-down effect through the Dallas offense. I think Jason Witten gets the biggest boost, but the team's second tight end, Gavin Escobar ($4,500) will see one as well. At that low salary, I predict a Week 2 touchdown.
Bad situation
- If you want to use Heath Miller ($5,400) in a 50/50 game where you just need predictable decentness, sure, go ahead. But if you're in a GPP-type game where you want to score as much as possible, I can't think of a reason to use him. He's fine. He's a good football player. He's never going to have a day like Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski or Tyler Eifert had in Week 1.
Defense/special teams
Good situations
- The Miami defense ($5,100) doesn't face its first truly good quarterback of 2015 until Tom Brady in Week 8. Before that, the opponents are Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, bye, Marcus Mariota and whoever the heck the Texans quarterback is in Week 7. This defense will be a monster over the first half of the season.
- Down at the bottom of the defense prices, the Washington defense ($5,100) is very good against the run. It is much less good against the pass, but with the St. Louis weapons of Nick Foles, Jared Cook, Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt ... it doesn't really have to be that good.
Bad situation
- There's all sorts of name cachet to the Seattle defense ($4,700), and it's probably going to be fine despite surrendering 34 points to the Rams of all teams in Week 1. But it's a very expensive defensive unit facing the Green Bay Packers in Week 2. This isn't the week.
See More:
