The 2018 football season is officially in full swing. Week 1 is a wrap, and Week 2 gets going with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. You’re likely already knee deep in your fantasy football leagues and pick ‘em pools, and hopefully most of you did not blow your Survivor pool by picking the New Orleans Saints last week!
Week 2 NFL Survivor strategy and picks
Did you manage to survive a wild Week 1 in your NFL survivor pool? We’re back to provide some tips to stay alive all season.
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For those new to the contest, a survivor pool involves picking one team each week that you think will win. If your team wins in Week 1, you can make a pick in Week 2. If your team wins in Week 2, you can make a pick in Week 3, and so on. The catch is that you cannot pick a team twice. You could very well use a heavy favorite in Week 1, but you won’t have access to them later in the year if you’re alive in the closing weeks.
There is plenty of strategy in determining which team you will take each week, and SB Nation is here to help. We’ll take a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then two trap picks.
Safest picks
Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals
New Orleans Saints over Cleveland Browns
Try not to laugh too hard. Last week, the New Orleans Saints were one of the most popular picks in Survivor pools, and they managed to lose a shootout to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you avoided the Saints, at home against the Browns is not the worst idea in the world, even with Cleveland coming off a strong effort in their tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Best value picks
Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders
Washington over Indianapolis Colts
Denver and Washington could both end up holding some value down the road, but with tough schedules the rest of the way, they have very winnable home games in Week 2. The Raiders are a tough team to figure out, and being a divisional game is not ideal, but the Broncos have an interesting number in their favor. Over the last 35 home games the Broncos have played in Weeks 1 and/or 2, they are 31-3-1 against the spread. I read that as opposing teams not being fully prepared for the altitude in Mile High. I was tempted to put this in the trap games, but I love that stat.
Trap pick
These two games represent odd lines for the week. The lookahead line a week ago had the Chargers as 1-point favorites and the 49ers as 3.5 point favorites. A week later, the Chargers are a touchdown favorite and the 49ers are a six-point favorite and the line is rising. The Chargers and 49ers should both win these games, but I have no interest in riding them with a Survivor pick.
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