Week 4 NFL Survivor strategy and picks

Well, Week 3 was certainly something else. The Cleveland Browns got things going with their first win since 2016. Then, the Buffalo Bills followed up with a win over the Minnesota Vikings, securing the biggest upset in recent memory. And we closed out with Fitzmagic going down the drain.

Sunday was the day of the dog, and that impacted every Survivor pool out there. The Vikings were a major pick in most pools, as were the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots. All three lost, taking over half of entrants in a lot of Survivor pools.

For those new to the contest, a survivor pool involves picking one team each week that you think will win. If your team wins in Week 1, you can make a pick in Week 2. If your team wins in Week 2, you can make a pick in Week 3, and so on. The catch is that you cannot pick a team twice. You could very well use a heavy favorite in Week 1, but you won’t have access to them later in the year if you’re alive in the closing weeks.

There is plenty of strategy in determining which team you will take each week, and SB Nation is here to help. We’ll take a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then two trap picks.

Green Bay Packers over Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars over New York Jets
Los Angeles Chargers over San Francisco 49ers

The Bills shocked the world, so picks against them might not be as safe as previously expected. And yet, the safe pick is generally going to be picking against the Bills. The Packers will be a popular pick, as will the Jaguars against a bad Jets team. These will be popular picks, as will the trap pick below.

Atlanta Falcons over Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys over Detroit Lions

There is not much in the way of value this week. The Falcons are a six-point home favorite against the Bengals, but Cincinnati is a solid team. I don’t like it, but if you want to be a contrarian, it’s an option. A big roll of the dice would be the Dallas Cowboys at home against the Detroit Lions. Detroit is coming off a big win over the New England Patriots, but I have a feeling Matt Patricia had that game circled all offseason. I feel a huge letdown coming.

Los Angeles Chargers over San Francisco 49ers

I’m a 49ers fan, so feel free to write this off as the ravings of a mad homer. The 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL, swinging the line from Chargers -4.5 to -10.5 and rising. The Chargers probably win this game, but this could be a “rally around the flag” kind of game. I suspect most remaining participants will consider taking the Chargers, so it makes sense to go contrarian in case of an upset.