World Cup 2026: How can the USMNT advance out of Group D?

The United States Men’s National Team got off to a rousing start at the 2026 World Cup, with a 4-1 win over Paraguay. The USMNT was dynamic, creative, and showed to the entire soccer world that they could be a force to be reckoned with at this tournament.

Now, on the verge of their second match of group play, they have a chance to accomplish another item on this year’s to-do list.

Win the group.

Here are the clinching scenarios for Group D ahead of the matches scheduled for Friday.

Here are the current Group D standings, ahead of the two matches scheduled for Friday, June 19.

There are four matches left in Group D, starting with two on Friday, June 19.

Friday, June 19

United States vs. Australia
Türkiye vs. Paraguay

Thursday, June 25

Türkiye vs. United States
Paraguay vs. Australia

Here are the clinching scenarios for the Group D entering play on June 19, starting with the United States.

The United States can clinch Group D, but they will need a win, and some help. A win does guarantee

First off, they need to defeat Australia on Friday. That match starts at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time. A draw, or a loss, and the USMNT cannot clinch the group.

Then they would need Türkiye to lose or tie against Paraguay. More on that in a moment. That match happens later on Friday night.

Just like the United States, Australia enters Friday with a win, having beaten Türkiye. As such, they can clinch the group on Friday with a win over the United States, and a Paraguay loss or tie.

Paraguay faces elimination on Friday. With a loss, and an Australia win or tie, Paraguay is eliminated.

Similar to Paraguay, Türkiye will be eliminated if they lose to Paraguay, and the United States wins or ties against Australia.

As mentioned above, tiebreakers may come into play here. So is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year.

If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.

In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.

If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.

If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.

That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams. We now return to the match between the US and Australia.

Both teams enter Friday with three points. Assuming, for the moment, the United States win, they would move to six points in the group. But if Türkiye defeats Paraguay, they would now have three points.

And with those two teams playing next week, Türkiye could theoretically defeat the United States, improve to six points — and a tie with the United States — and win Group D thanks to that first tiebreaker. (And a similar scenario will play out if Australia wins on Friday, just that the Socceroos would need Paraguay to lose or tie).

So if there is a winner between the United States and Australia, they will not be guaranteed a group win until the result between Paraguay and Türkiye is known.