The September 2025 international window is upon us and it’s time to start thinking about who will book their places this fall for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, 10 teams have qualified alongside co-hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States. We now see who will fill out the rest of the 48 spots in next summer’s tournament.
Checking in on Concacaf World Cup qualifying
We examine the start of the final phase World Cup qualifying in our region.
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Concacaf’s World Cup qualifying feels as open as it has been in a very long time. That could be because the United States, Mexico, and Canada have already qualified as co-hosts and aren’t participating in qualifying matches. Some teams are probably excited at the prospect of getting a crack at World Cup qualifying without one of those teams coming along to ruin their plans. Also, before this World Cup, Concacaf was capped at 3 direct places, with one team going to an inter-confederation playoff. Now, it’s a total of 6 teams, with two headed to the inter-confederation playoffs. With the host nations taking up three of those spots, that still leaves a wide open field to compete for the other three places.
The World Cup qualifying field that began in March 2024 with 32 teams has been narrowed to 12. Those 12 teams will compete in 3 groups, and the three group winners will earn Concacaf’s final spots in the 2026 World Cup. The best two group runners-up will move on to compete in the inter-confederation playoffs, as Concacaf is the only confederation that will send two teams to the playoff. In total, Concacaf could have as many as eight teams in the field of 48 at a World Cup taking place across North America.
Groups
The three groups for Concacaf’s Third Round of World Cup qualifying:
A - Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala, Suriname
B - Jamaica, Curaçao, Trinidad & Tobago, Bermuda
C - Costa Rica, Honduras, Haiti, Nicaragua
Key matches
In the September window, Panama versus Guatemala on September 8th could give one team the edge in Group A. Jamaica will face Trinidad & Tobago and Costa Rica will compete against Haiti on September 9th in matches that could dictate how Groups B and C shape up. In October, Honduras-Costa Rica will be a monster, while Curaçao will get their crack at the Reggae Boyz. Finally, Guatemala-Panama on November 13th could decide Group A and who gets to the World Cup, while Costa Rica-Honduras could do the same in Group C.
Teams with best chance to qualify
In Group A, it’s a toss-up between Panama and Guatemala. Panama has the edge, but Guatemala has been playing well lately and will be a tough out. Jamaica has the best chance in Group B, hoping to qualify for their second World Cup ever and first since 1998. In Group C, Costa Rica and Honduras will be the teams that likely battle it out.
Big teams in trouble
El Salvador could be in trouble in Group A with Panama and Guatemala also there, while the loser of Honduras-Costa Rica in October could be a team that may have to try and qualify via the inter-confederation playoff. Trinidad & Tobago will likely need to grab some results against Curaçao to avoid being the team in 3rd place. And, with only two of the second place teams advancing to the inter-confederation playoffs, draws could really hurt teams like Guatemala, Honduras, or Haiti if they want to give themselves a chance to keep hope alive via the inter-confederation playoffs.
