Why the Qatar Grand Prix will be the most chaotic race of the 2023 F1 season

If you are a fan of pit stops during Formula 1 races, then today is your lucky day.

Because at the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix, you might see at least 60 of them.

In the hours ahead of the race the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA), the sport’s governing body, has declared that during the race each set of tyres during the race can run a maximum of 18 laps.

With the Qatar Grand Prix a 57-lap race, one can just do the math to realize that a two-stop effort would fall short of the 57 laps in the race.

The reason for this mandate? Safety concerns. Following the single practice session on Friday, as well as qualifying for the Grand Prix, Pirelli — the sports exclusive tyre supplier — performed their standard analysis of used tyres. That analysis found evidence of the treads pulling away from the tyre. In a statement issued Saturday by the FIA it was noted that Pirelli discovered “separation in the sidewall between the topping compound and the carcass cords on many of tyres.”

It was believed that the kerbs installed around the circuit caused the separation. A number of turns at Lusail International Circuit have 50 millimeter “pyramid” kerbs, but as was observed during Friday’s two sessions, drivers often ride on those for extended periods as they push the limits of the track.

Pirelli believed that those extended runs on the pyramid kerbs caused excessive vibration, leading to the separation.

As a result, the track limits were widened at two different sections of the track, at Turns 12 and 13. The hope was drivers would run less on the kerbs, cutting down on the vibration and by extension the separation issue. Pirelli and FIA used Saturday’s F1 Sprint Shootout, and F1 Sprint race, as another test.

However, even with the change in track limits, Pirelli’s examination of tyres used on Saturday found the separation issue still present. That is even with the F1 Sprint race — a 19-lap affair — having three different safety car situations. As FIA noted in their update Sunday morning, “[a]s was the case in Free Practice 1, this issue has likely been caused by the high-frequency interference between the tyre sidewall and the 50mm ‘pyramid’ kerbs used extensively at this circuit, aggravated by the propensity to ride those kerbs.”

Given these findings, FIA announced hours ahead of the Qatar Grand Prix that each set of tyres can last at maximum 18 laps. As noted in their statement:

That second point may make things interesting for some teams, and drivers, who enter Sunday without three new sets of tyres at their disposal. Charles Leclerc, for example, has just one new set of hards, and one new set of mediums, as race day begins:

As you can see Leclerc is not alone, as Max Verstappen, George Russell, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri — among others — also find themselves with just two fresh sets of tyres at their disposal.

For these drivers, three stops might not be enough, given how long those used tyres were run earlier in the week. That could mean some drivers have to make four stops, or even more. Some of those used soft tyres might just have a few laps on them, so you could see a driver try and push the limits on used softs as well.

Update: FIA has confirmed how many laps are remaining for each set of tyres:

Let’s take a look at Lewis Hamilton for a moment to highlight just how tricky things might be for teams. It is largely believed that the hards and the mediums are the better tyres for Lusail International Circuit. In Saturday’s F1 Sprint race, for example, drivers that started on the softs enjoyed the run of play for the first few laps, but those tyres wore down quickly.

Hamilton has one fresh set of hards and one fresh set of mediums. He then has two more sets of mediums, one with 10 laps remaining, the other with 13.

Add that up and you have 59 laps, for a 57-lap race. So he can make it the distance on those, provided he does not encounter any severe wear on those tyres.

So, you can expect a lot of pit stops, and some chaos, in the Grand Prix later today.