How Max Verstappen can clinch the F1 Drivers’ title in Las Vegas, and what Lando Norris needs to do to stay alive

Formula 1 is entering the final stretch of the 2024 season.

Next weekend the grid will descend upon Las Vegas, for the second Las Vegas Grand Prix. The inaugural event a season ago got off to a rocky start when Carlos Sainz Jr. drove over a loose manhole cover in the first practice session, causing substantial damage to his SF-23 and bringing out a red flag that extended the session deep into the night.

However, the race itself was one of the more thrilling Grands Prix of the 2023 campaign, and the second installment of the Las Vegas Grand Prix might be even better.

Because a pair of titles are on the line.

Last year Red Bull arrived in Las Vegas having already secured the Constructors’ Championship, and Max Verstappen’s second-place finish in the F1 Sprint Race at the Qatar Grand Prix had clinched a third-straight Drivers’ Championship. That meant the big battles that played out in Las Vegas took place further back in the grid.

This year, however, both the Drivers’ title, and the Constructors’, remain in doubt as the Vegas Strip roars to life. However, Verstappen can still clinch a fourth straight Drivers’ title in Las Vegas.

Here is how.

Here are the current top-ten drivers in the F1 Drivers’ Championship standings, ahead of the Las Vegas Grand Prix. As we will see in a moment, McLaren driver Lando Norris is the only driver with a mathematical chance of beating Verstappen in the F1 Drivers’ Championship. The two have waged a thrilling fight over the second half of the 2024 F1 season.

The current gap from Verstappen to Norris is 62 points. More on that in a moment.

Before we dive into how many points are left to be captured this season, a quick reminder on how points are allocated in Grand Prix events:

There is also one F1 Sprint Race left in Qatar. In F1 Sprint races, the top eight finishers receive points, starting with eight for the winner down to one point for the driver that finishes in P8.

Three Grands Prix are remaining in the 2024 F1 season: The Las Vegas Grand Prix, the Qatar Grand Prix, and the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. There is also one more F1 Sprint Race this season, which takes place at the Qatar Grand Prix.

That means the most points available to a single driver over the final three race weekends is 86. A driver could, theoretically, maximize their performance over these final races as follows:

Win the Las Vegas Grand Prix and secure the bonus point for the fastest lap: 26 points (25 points for the win and a point for the fastest lap).

Win the F1 Sprint Race in Qatar and win the Qatar Grand Prix itself, and secure the bonus point for the fastest lap: 34 points (8 points for the F1 Sprint Race win, 25 points for the Grand Prix win, and a point for the fastest lap in the Grand Prix).

Win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and secure the bonus point for the fastest lap: 26 points (25 points for the win and a point for the fastest lap).

That means there are 60 points available following the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Lando Norris is the only driver with a mathematical chance of catching Verstappen. The current gap between the two drivers is 62 points. Norris has to be within 59 points or less to still have a chance at catching Verstappen when the grid heads to Abu Dhabi. If the gap is 60 points or more, Verstappen will have clinched the title in Las Vegas.

For those wondering, Verstappen currently holds a tiebreaker over Norris, with eight Grand Prix wins on the season. Norris cannot catch him in that department — the McLaren driver has won three Grands Prix this year — so Verstappen has already clinched a tiebreaker advantage. If the two drivers finish level, somehow, Verstappen will win the title.

Simply put, Verstappen has to hold any gain by Norris in the points to two points or less. If Norris gains at least three points on Verstappen in Las Vegas, the gap between the two will be 59 points, keeping Norris alive in the title race.

But if Norris gains just two points on Verstappen in Las Vegas, the gap will be 60 points, and even if Norris takes all 60 potential points in Qatar ain Abu Dhabi as outlined above — and Verstappen does not score a single point over those two Grands Prix and an F1 Sprint Race — they will finish the season level.

And Verstappen already has the tiebreaker.

Here is a table outlining the potential scenarios:

As you can see, Norris will need some Las Vegas luck to stay in the chase next weekend.