How McLaren can clinch 2024 F1 Constructors’ Championship at Qatar GP

The last time McLaren won the Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship was back in 1998 when Mika Häkkinen and David Coulthard combined to lead the team to a title over Ferrari. Just how long ago was that? None of the current drivers on the grid this season were driving back in 1998. Although Jos Verstappen, father of four-time champion Max Verstappen, drove in nine races for Stewart, without scoring a point.

Neither of the team’s current drivers — Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri — had been born yet.

But those two can help McLaren to their first title since 1998 this weekend, at the Qatar Grand Prix. Here is what they need to do to deliver that first title for the team since the 1998 season.

At the moment, only three teams remain in contention for the 2024 F1 Constructors’ Championship: McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull.

McLaren enters the Qatar Grand Prix with a 24-point lead over Ferrari and a 53-point lead over Red Bull.

As noted above, Red Bull leads the way with the most victories on the season with eight, followed by McLaren and Ferrari with five each. Victories are the first tiebreaker, so Red Bull holds the advantage in that potential scenario.

The second tiebreaker is the number of P2 finishes from each team. McLaren has an unassailable advantage there, with ten P2 finishes this season. Ferrari has three, and Red Bull has seven. With both McLaren and Ferrari tied with five wins, there are some scenarios where that second tiebreaker matters.

The most points a team can bank from a single Grand Prix weekend is 44: 25 points for the win, 18 points for a P2, and a bonus point with one of the drivers securing the fastest lap.

In addition, this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix also contains an F1 Sprint Race, offering another 15 points to each team in an ideal scenario. Winners of an F1 Sprint Race take home eight points, with the second-place driver taking home seven.

Therefore, there are 59 points available in Qatar (25 points for a win in the Grand Prix, 18 points for a P2 in the Grand Prix, 8 points for an F1 Sprint win, and 7 points for an F1 Sprint P2).

Simply put, McLaren needs to be leading both Ferrari and Red Bull by at least 45 points going into the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Should their lead over either Ferrari and/or Red Bull be just 44 points, tiebreakers would potentially be on the table, meaning McLaren would not have mathematically clinched the title.

Right now McLaren leads Red Bull by 53 points, which is above the 45-point mark. Red Bull needs to get their deficit to McLaren down to 44 or less, meaning they need to outscore McLaren by nine points or more in Qatar to stay alive. Anything less than that — or if McLaren outscores Red Bull in Qatar — and Red Bull is eliminated.

Now for Ferrari, which is a bit tougher for McLaren. With McLaren holding a lead of 24 points over Ferrari at the moment, they need to push that gap to 45, outscoring Ferrari by a total of 21 points over the weekend in Qatar. Should they accomplish that task, Ferrari would be eliminated.

But if they outscore Ferrari by less than 21 — or if Ferrari outscores McLaren — the Constructors’ title would come down to the final race weekend, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

For those wondering, a season ago in Qatar McLaren banked 47 points, their strongest weekend of the season. They banked a P2 and a P3 in the Grand Prix itself, and Piastri took the win in the F1 Sprint Race with Norris two spots behind in P3.

As for Ferrari, they scored just 13 points in Qatar a year ago. Charles Leclerc finished fifth in the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix, while Carlos Sainz Jr. took sixth in the sprint.

Sainz was unable to start the Qatar Grand Prix due to a fuel issue on his 2023.

Should McLaren repeat that 34-point advantage over Ferrari this weekend in Qatar, they would clinch the 2024 Constructors’ Championship.