Why Carlos Sainz Jr.’s appendectomy could lead to a youth movement at Mercedes

Could Formula 1 see another string of driver movement set in motion by a surprise appendectomy?

According to one well-respected pundit, that scenario is certainly on the table.

Let’s start with the previous example, which begins in Monza during the 2022 F1 season. Ahead of the Italian Grand Prix that year, Alexander Albon was ruled out ahead of the third practice session, due to appendicitis. (Albon would have surgery and then endure some post-surgery complications which included respiratory failure).

That opened a seat at Williams for that weekend. The team turned to Nyck de Vries, who had already participated in a practice session ahead of the Italian Grand Prix, driving in Sebastian Vettel’s Aston Martin seat. De Vries managed to qualify in P13, and finished the Italian Grand Prix in P9, scoring points in his F1 debut.

To that point, that was only the third points-scoring race for Williams that season.

That impressive debut led many teams to compete for his services for the upcoming 2023 season. AlphaTauri eventually signed De Vries to race for them ahead of last season, alongside Yuki Tsunoda. However, you probably know how that story ends. He struggled in his rookie season and was replaced by Daniel Ricciardo midway through the year. Ricciardo, in turn, was replaced by Liam Lawson after a practice injury of his own, and it was Lawson’s turn to impress.

Now Ricciardo is facing questions of losing his current spot at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team (formerly AlphaTauri) to Lawson.

So that was one wild appendectomy story impacting the grid.

Could another lead Mercedes to tap Andrea Kimi Antonelli — yet to turn 18 — to drive alongside George Russell next season?

Will Buxton believes so.

The F1TV analyst appeared on a recent episode of The Red Flags Podcast and made the case that Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff, looking to avoid repeating a mistake, is going to bring Antonelli aboard for next season, sliding the wunderkind into the seat soon to be vacated by Lewis Hamilton.

The starting point? Wolff does not want to repeat the mistake he made years ago, when he failed to sign another young phenom at Mercedes. You might know that driver, as he has gone on to enjoy a good bit of success in F1.

Max Verstappen.

“Antonelli is going to Mercedes. I think Toto has made his mind up: he wants Antonelli in the seat,” Buxton declared on The Red Flags Podcast. “Because he’s pissed. He is pissed that he missed the opportunity to give Max the opportunity back in 2014. So you put Antonelli in the seat.”

While that is all well and good, how does an appendectomy fit into this picture?

Let’s go back to the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix of this season.

Ahead of that race, it was Carlos Sainz Jr. who fell ill, and needed an emergency appendectomy. Ferrari was forced to call on their young but talented reserve driver, Ollie Bearman. The 18-year-old Ferrari reserve — and F2 teammate of Antonelli — had just one practice session ahead of qualifying, yet advanced into Q1 and started the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in P11.

He finished in seventh, holding off Lando Norris and Hamilton in the closing laps. The six points he earned that day, in a stellar F1 debut, still have him P12 in the Drivers’ Championship standings.

That debut, according to Buxton, was what Wolff needed to see to believe Antonelli is the right choice for 2025 and beyond at Mercedes.

“The litmus test was Bearman,” argued Buxton on The Red Flags Podcast. “Bearman did the job, ‘Okay great, so we can stick a kid straight in from Formula 2.’ [2025] is a write-off for [Mercedes] anyway, until the new regulations in ’26, so you bring him in, no pressure, get him to know the team, get him to work with George [Russell], understand what Mercedes are all about.

“Bam! New car, new regulations in 2026, go for the title, go have a run at it.”

If true, that would be the second wild scenario in recent years set in motion by a surprise appendectomy.

What a sport.