Canadian Grand Prix 2024: A true F1 title fight leads the storylines

This has become something of a familiar theme this Formula 1 season, but what a difference a year makes.

When the grid made the trip to Montreal a year ago, it was for the eighth race weekend of the 2023 F1 season. Red Bull arrived at the Canadian Grand Prix with a commanding 135-point lead over Mercedes in the Constructors’ Championship standings, with Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez having won every race to that point. Verstappen held a similarly commanding lead in the Drivers’ Championship, and it certainly felt like the season was done and dusted.

As the grid arrives in Montreal for the ninth race of the 2024 season it feels, as Oscar Piastri told me last week, like it is all to play for.

The circuit arrives at the Canadian Grand Prix with Red Bull still in the lead, but holding just a 24-point lead over Ferrari, with McLaren certainly in the mix as well. Not only that, but Ferrari has a pair of wins on the season — Carlos Sainz Jr. in Australia and Charles Leclerc in Monaco — while Lando Norris broke through with his maiden F1 win at the Miami Grand Prix.

When I spoke with Norris’ teammate last week, I asked Piastri if a title fight was truly in the cards.

He assured me that one is.

I asked Piastri if McLaren and Ferrari can keep the pressure on Red Bull, and turn the 2024 season into a true title fight.

“I think so,” was the immediate reply.

“I think Red Bull is still gonna be incredibly strong at pretty much everywhere. I think it’s kind of just a coincidence that the last two or three races have been a little bit less comfortable [for Red Bull],” continued the McLaren driver. “But there’s definitely gonna be more opportunities for both us and Ferrari.

“The Constructors’ [Championship] I would say is still open. We’re still a third of the way through the year. So it’s definitely still all to play for. I would say, of course, we’re at a bit of a disadvantage being as far back as we are, but it’s certainly not impossible. And yeah, I think even in the Drivers’ Championship, it’s not done and dusted yet. If you were to say anyone apart from Max [Verstappen] being the favorite, it’s probably ambitious.

“But I don’t think either championship is over by any means.”

While Piastri told me that Montreal could be another circuit where McLaren shows some pace, this could be another difficult weekend for Red Bull. According to Senior Advisor Dr. Helmut Marko, the team could struggle this weekend. In his weekly debrief for Speedweek, Marko predicted that Red Bull could struggle in the Canadian Grand Prix.

“The problem starts in the simulator, which indicated that the car was going over the curbs perfectly. Simply put, that means that the simulator and reality don’t correlate. And Monaco wasn’t the first race track where we had this problem; it was the first time that it was relatively severe in Singapore. The simulator spat out something that didn’t correspond to reality. That’s the first point we’ll address,” wrote Marko.

“We are optimistic that we can at least find out why the simulator produces data that does not correspond to reality. But Montreal could also be a difficult weekend for us.”

Game on in Montreal.

When the 2024 F1 season began, the upcoming driver transfer market looked like the major source of drama. While the potential for a true title fight has changed that calculation, speculation continues apace regarding next year’s driver grid.

Will we see more news on that front this week in Montreal?

The answer to that is yes, as Alpine announced Monday morning that the team will part ways with Esteban Ocon at the end of the 2024 season.

As of this moment only two teams — Ferrari and McLaren — have truly settled their lineups for 2025. Aston Martin is a strong contender for the third team on that list, as Fernando Alonso has signed a new deal with the team and Lance Stroll is likely assured of a spot for next year.

Outside of those teams, however, every other team on the grid has at least one spot that remains unsettled.

The two biggest seats on the grid — the seat Lewis Hamilton is vacating at Mercedes and Sergio Pérez’s current spot at Red Bull — are the most coveted. Mercedes seems to be taking their time with a decision, as they evaluate all options including young phenom Andrea Kimi Antonelli, so we might not hear news on that front this weekend.

As for Red Bull, however, the team sent some signals on social media that perhaps news is coming regarding a new deal for Pérez. Will that come to fruition over these next few days?

Over the past few weeks, the word out of Brackley has been “progress.”

As Mercedes rolled out a series of upgrades, starting with the Miami Grand Prix, the team has shown some minor steps forward. Perhaps their biggest step forward came in Monaco as the team banked 17 points with George Russell’s P5 and Hamilton’s P7, the team’s best points tally on a non-sprint weekend this season.

“That was the best race of our season so far. We had good pace and were able to show that near the end, despite being on 70-lap old Medium [tires],” said Russell after the Monaco Grand Prix. “We were closing on the top four at the end and only finished a handful of seconds off P1. There are plenty of positives to take from the weekend as a whole.”

“There have been plenty of encouraging signs from our performance this weekend. The team has worked so hard to bring updates to the car and we’ve got more to come across the next few races,” described Hamilton. “We have taken a step forward with the car and, if we can continue to make a few more, then we can hopefully get ourselves into the fight with the three teams ahead of us.”

Can Mercedes continue — or even accelerate — this progress starting in Montreal? The team added a new front wing for Russell’s W15 in Monaco, and Hamilton will have that upgrade on his car for the Canadian Grand Prix. That could mean another big step forward for the Silver Arrows this week.

“Overall, the weekend was another indication that we are moving in the right direction. We were just 25 milliseconds off P3 in Qualifying, which is an annoying margin to miss out on a likely podium by,” said Trackside Engineering Director Andrew Shovlin following the Monaco Grand Prix. “That said, a few weeks ago we couldn’t even talk about podiums. We’ll have both cars on the latest updates in Montreal with a few additional bits on top. We’ll keep working hard and hopefully better results are not far away.”

A season ago, the fight for seventh between Williams, Haas, Alfa Romeo (now Sauber), and AlphaTauri (now VCARB) might have been the most thrilling battle on the grid. Williams emerged victorious in that fight, fending off a late charge from AlphaTauri down the stretch.

A similar fight for seventh is shaping up yet again.

Right now it is Haas in that spot, as they sit seventh in the Constructors’ Championship with seven points on the year. Williams and Alpine sit eighth and ninth, respectively, with a pair of points each. Williams has the advantage due to Albon’s P9 in the Monaco Grand Prix the last time out.

Sauber rounds out the field, yet to open their account this season.

But with these four teams bunched so closely, it all remains to play for in the important battle for seventh. And there are millions of dollars on the line in this fight. While exact payouts are not known, Williams received an estimated $87 million for finishing seventh a season ago, while AlphaTauri received an estimated $78 million.

Haas, the last-place finishers a season ago, received an estimated $60 million.

Canada was kind to Williams a season ago, as Albon’s seventh-place finish was one of the team’s best results of the year. The quick and flowing Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve, with a number of long straights, suited the FW45, the team’s challenger a year ago. While Williams believes the FW46 is a more well-rounded car, this could be a weekend where Williams has an advantage.