What are the strategy options for the F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Qualifying is in the books, and now the teams are setting their strategies for the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix.

What are the options available to them?

As is often the case, the Japanese Grand Prix will be a voyage of discovery for the drivers and the teams. Between an uncertain weather forecast, a newly-resurfaced first sector, and the different strategy options available, teams might try and keep their options open as the race unfolds.

Let’s dive into the strategy options for the Japanese Grand Prix.

Last season was predominantly a two-stop affair. Max Verstappen took the victory in Suzuka a year ago, with Sergio Pérez and Carlos Sainz Jr. rounding out the podium.

All three drivers implemented a two-stop strategy, starting on the medium compound, taking on a second set of mediums around Lap 15, and then switching to the hard compound around Lap 33 to go the rest of the way.

Charles Leclerc was the highest finisher to implement a one-stop strategy. The Ferrari driver started in P8 but began on a set of medium tires, pitting on Lap 26. From there he went the distance on a set of hard tires.

Lando Norris, who finished fifth, also used a two-stop strategy. However, instead of going medium-medium-hard like the three drivers on the podium, Norris started on a set of the mediums before switching to a set of hards on Lap 11. Norris pitted early to try and undercut the drivers in front of him. But when that did not work, the McLaren driver pulled into the pits on Lap 26 for a second set of hards, ultimately coming across the line in P5.

Here is the provisional starting grid for the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix:

Where the drivers are starting on the grid could play a big role in the strategies they run on Sunday in Suzuka.

2025 is a completely new ballgame at the Japanese Grand Prix.

While the two-stop strategy was the preferred method a season ago, it is largely believed that Sunday’s race (barring weather) will be a one-stop affair.

The main reasons?

First, race officials have resurfaced the first sector at Suzuka International Racing Circuit. “The level of graining was reduced, abrasion is low, degradation is low, because the new tarmac in the first sector is able to generate quite a lot of grip, but is smooth,” described Pirelli Motorsport Director Mario Isola.

Pirelli Chief Engineer Simone Berra elaborated on this issue.

“In general, apart from a few exceptions, we did not see any graining and it became clear that, on paper at least, all three compounds could have a role to play in the race. Furthermore, unlike in 2024, three-quarters of the drivers opted not to save both sets of Hards,” began Berra.

The other reason? The tires have been more durable this season, as evidenced by the Chinese Grand Prix two weeks ago. Pirelli believed a two-stop strategy was going to be the most advantageous path for drivers in Shanghai, but after Lance Stroll made his set of hard tires last until Lap 36, most of the field abandoned a two-stop plan and made a one-stopper work.

Berra noted that the decreased degradation seen on longer runs during practice could pave the way for a one-stop approach.

“The level of degradation seen on the long runs today is lower than expected, which could suggest that a one-stop strategy might be more competitive than a two-stop, which theoretically was considered to be the quickest,” said Beerra.

Pirelli outlined these strategies as potential options for Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix:

The first one-stop strategy outlined sees drivers start on a set of mediums, pit around Lap 19 to Lap 25, and then go the distance on a set of hard tires. This might be the preferred strategy for drivers at the front of the grid.

Another one-stop strategy sees drivers start on the softs, run around 10-to-16 laps, and then pit early for a set of hards on an undercut strategy. This could be an approach for drivers sitting just outside the top ten, such as Pierre Gasly (P11), Fernando Alonso (P12), Liam Lawson (P13), Yuki Tsunoda (P14), and Carlos Sainz Jr. (P15).

As you will see in a moment, all of those drivers have a fresh set of soft tires available to them.

Teams may still opt to give themselves some flexibility, starting on mediums or even hards, and then seeing how the track settles over the race itself. In many ways, an F1 race is a voyage of discovery.

What tires does each driver have available for the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?

Here is every tire compound available to the drivers ahead of the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix:

As you can see, none of the drivers who advanced to Q3 have a fresh set of soft tires available, which may limit their options somewhat. Other than a late safety car opening the door for a sprint on used softs in the closing stages, you can expect the drivers inside the top ten to use some combination of the mediums and the hards.

Drivers on the outside of the top ten have some other options available.

Interestingly enough both Aston Martin and Haas have only used hard tires available. Even more curious is the fact that both Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso have a set of used mediums, and a set of used hards, available for the race.

Those two are likely to use a set of softs at some point.

Ah yes, back to the aforementioned “voyage of discovery.”

Rain is in the forecast for Suzuka, but the bulk of the rain is expected early in the day, with conditions improving as the afternoon continues.

That could mean a dry race, but a washed-out track to start.

This would increase tire degradation during the race, as the rubber that was previously laid down over three practice sessions and qualifying is washed away with the early-day rain.

“The rain could play an important role, even if it does not fall during the race,” said Isola. “In fact, depending on its strength, track conditions could revert to those seen yesterday morning, before the cars had [started] running. That could make graining more likely and therefore the choice could swing back towards a two-stop.”