What are the strategy options for the 2025 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

The Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix tasks drivers with surviving 78 of the most difficult laps on the calendar, as they rocket by some of the most iconic scenes in motorsport with walls — and danger — looming around every corner.

Yet F1 immortality awaits at the end of those 78 hair-raising laps.

However, recent years have made the race itself something of a procession. The current generation of cars, massive in size, have made overtaking a near impossibility in the race itself. To improve the “racing spectacle” the sport’s governing body has instituted a new two-stop rule for the Monaco Grand Prix this year, meaning that drivers will have to make two mandatory pit stops, using three different sets of tires, and if the race is run in dry conditions they must use at least two different tire compounds.

If you have heard the phrase “voyage of discovery” ahead of an F1 race before, you are going to hear it even more today.

Lando Norris captured pole position for today’s Monaco Grand Prix with a new track record on Saturday, but how today’s race unfolds is anyone’s guess.

Here is a look at the possible tire strategies for the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix.

At most races, drivers are required to use two different tire compounds, which means they are required to make at least one pit stop.

This year’s Monaco Grand Prix is different. Drivers are now required to make two different pit stops and use three different sets of tires. The two-compound rule remains, meaning teams could theoretically use a soft-medium-medium or a soft-hard-hard strategy.

But they will have to stop at least twice.

Last year’s race is perhaps the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back” when it comes to the new rule. After years of debate over how to improve the Monaco Grand Prix, 2024 began with an opening-lap crash involving Nico Hülkenberg, Kevin Magnussen, and Sergio Pérez. The massive three-way shunt covered the first sector in debris, bringing out the red flag.

When the session resumed the entire field had switched to the hard tire, and the front runners went the rest of the way on that compound, managing their tires and keeping the speeds down. As a result, the race took on the feel of a parade more than anything else, as the field followed Charles Leclerc around the Monte Carlo streets.

I spoke with Oscar Piastri, who finished second last year, in the days after the Monaco Grand Prix.

“It’s incredibly tough [to overtake in Monaco]. I think for me the difficult thing is that whilst I was right behind Charles for a lot of the race, it wasn’t because he was slow,” started Piastri. “It was because he was deciding to go slow, right.”

“So it’s not like somewhere else where they have clear strengths and weaknesses and you can kind of set them up [for an overtake]. Like for him, if he wanted to go faster, he could have, literally depending on what he wanted to do with his right foot,” added the McLaren driver. “So that also made it tough.”

Piastri admitted he made one attempt, but reviewing the race afterward, he conceded it would have been difficult to make the overtake stick.

“I tried once into Turn Eight to try and get by. But, yeah, I watched it back and to be honest, I was even further back than I thought. So it definitely wouldn’t have worked. But yeah, that is just the nature of Monaco, I guess.”

While we usually look at the strategy options first, it might make more sense this week to start with the tires that each driver has available.

Here is that graphic, courtesy of Albert Fabrega:

Interestingly enough, while most teams have at least two fresh sets of tires from different compound ranges, Aston Martin will be using some scrubbed sets on Sunday. Fernando Alonso has two scrubbed sets of hards, a scrubbed set of the C5 medium tires, and three scrubbed sets of the C6 soft tires.

As for Lance Stroll, he has two scrubbed sets of the C4 hard tire, one scrubbed set of mediums, and two scrubbed sets of softs, along with a pair of fresh C6 tires.

At the front of the grid, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris each have two fresh sets of hard tires and a fresh set of C5 medium tires. Charles Leclerc, who starts alongside Norris in P2, has a fresh C4 hard tire, along with a new C5 set, and a used C5 set. As for Max Verstappen, who was promoted to P4 after a three-place grid penalty was handed out to Lewis Hamilton, he has a fresh set of the C4 hards, a fresh set of the C5 mediums, and four used soft sets.

Mario Isola, Pirelli’s director of Motorsport, predicted that the C6 soft tire will have to come into play on Sunday.

“All three compounds will come into play: in fact, drivers from three teams, Red Bull, Racing Bulls, and Sauber, only have one set of Hard tires and one of Medium, so they are bound to have to use the C6 during the race,” said Isola in Pirelli’s post-qualifying report.

Honestly?

Who knows?

In their post-qualifying report, Pirelli noted that there are “so many theoretical possibilities” available to the teams.

“In terms of strategy, tomorrow’s race will be a one-off,” said Isola. “The changes to the Sporting Regulations introduced specifically for this Grand Prix require the use of at least three sets of tires, which means anything is possible in terms of the pit stop windows, given that there really are so many theoretical possibilities, not to mention appearances from the Safety Car being quite likely at this track.”

One possibility, particularly for the teams at the back of the grid, is to start the race on one compound, pit at the end of Lap 1 to switch to a second compound, and pit on Lap 2 to switch to the hard tire — which as we saw a year ago can go the distance — and run as long as possible.

Teams at the front of the grid might want to start on the soft tire and push for a hard, short stint, and here is why:

The run from the start/finish line to Turn 1, the Sainte Devote corner, is one of the shortest of the season, covering around 150 meters. However, this is one of the better spots for overtaking on the entire circuit, so getting a strong launch into Turn 1 might be critical for the drivers at the front.

Similar to those of us on the outside, those who will be climbing into the cars later today are unsure what to expect from the Monaco Grand Prix this year.

“I have no idea. Four? It’s impossible to put a number on it, especially here and more so probably in the past than going into a new-rule race tomorrow,” said Norris after qualifying when asked about how much of the job he has done in percentage terms. “I would have felt like a higher number if it was last year’s rules, but obviously this year, things have changed. Again, my only focus until this point has been qualifying. So, I’ve not thought about the race. I don’t need to until later with the team. For now, I’m enjoying the moment of the laps that I did.”

“I think it’s going to be a bit of chaos tomorrow, but we’ll see how it plays out. I think there’ll be a lot of strategy games, and we’ll see who comes out on top. But I think we might be under pressure from cars that we probably don’t expect, from the back, which might make everything interesting. We’ll see,” said 2024 Monaco Grand Prix winner Leclerc in the FIA Press Conference Saturday.

“I don’t think anyone really knows what to expect,” said Piastri.

Later in the FIA Press Conference, Leclerc even used the word “unknown” when talking about the rule, and the importance of the run off the line into Turn 1 at Sainte Devote.

“Yeah, as I was saying earlier, I think it’s very difficult also to know what to expect. I think we all go a little bit into the unknown. More stops means more opportunities,” added Leclerc. “I don’t think it will change what happens in Turn 1, Lap 1. I think that’s going to be very similar to any other year because it’s going to be just as significant. But then we’ll have to see with the pit stops.

“I don’t think there’s going to be anything surprising in the top positions. I think there’s going to be some things that are probably going to be surprising in the back, and that could affect the top positions. So yeah, I don’t know.

“It’s going to be interesting.”