What are the strategy options for the Spanish Grand Prix?

The Spanish Grand Prix, and the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, make for a fascinating combination when it comes to contemplating tire strategies.

As noted by Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Director of Motorsport, the circuit is a “severe test for car and tire performance,” and it is a race that puts “significant stress” on the tires. As such Pirelli brings the hardest compounds in their range to this circuit — the C1 as the hard, the C2 as the medium, and the C3 as the soft.

However, while you might think that puts the C1 on the table, history tells us that Sunday’s Formula 1 Spanish Grand Prix might be a soft and medium affair. “A two-stop strategy is almost obligatory, and I reckon the Medium and Soft compounds will see most of the action,” added Isola on Saturday. “We saw [Friday] that the Hard tire tends to slide too much and the lap times compared to those on the softer compounds reflect that.”

Given that, what are the strategy options for the Spanish Grand Prix?

Last year the top three finishers were Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Lewis Hamilton.

All three used a two-stop strategy, and all three ran a combination of soft-medium-soft.

How they got there, however, was rather different.

Hamilton was the first to pit, as he came in on Lap 16 for a set of medium tires. Verstappen followed him on Lap 17, making the same switch. Norris, however, went long, not stopping until Lap 23. Hamilton pitted on Lap 43 for a set of softs that he used until the end, and again Verstappen followed him a lap later to make the same switch.

Norris ran on that set of mediums until Lap 47, when he came in for his set of softs for his final stint.

A few drivers who finished in the points opted for a two-stop strategy, albeit with a different compound combination. The highest finisher in this group was George Russell, who started on a set of softs and pitted on Lap 15, switching to mediums. When he came in again on Lap 36, Mercedes bolted on a set of hard tires, which he saw through until the end. Carlos Sainz Jr., Pierre Gasly, and Esteban Ocon all used that same soft-medium-hard approach to finish in the points.

The only true off-set strategy in the points last year came from Sergio Pérez. He started outside the points in P11 and employed a three-stop strategy — running soft-soft-medium-soft — to climb into the top ten. He stopped first on Lap 13, then again on Lap 31, and finally on Lap 49.

What are the options available this year?

This year Pirelli again favors the two-stop approach, with a combination of softs and mediums.

“On paper, the Soft-Medium-Soft strategy is fastest, as was the case last year,” said Isola in Pirelli’s Saturday media report.

“For those starting on Softs to make the most of the extra grip early on, with some drivers having new sets of the C3, the first stint should extend to at least Lap 12,” added Isola. “Then, based on simulations, they’ll aim to stretch the second stint to around Lap 40, finishing with a final Soft stint. With a lighter car, that last set should be enough to get to Lap 66. Drivers aiming for a more balanced race and planning to use the second set of Mediums will likely stop a few laps earlier. It’s also worth noting that undercuts are particularly powerful on this track.”

Speaking of that undercut, that could open the door to a soft-medium-hard strategy. As noted in this graphic from F1.com, drivers could start on the C3 soft tire, run until around Lap 10 and pit on the earlier side for a set of mediums, run until Lap 32 and again pit ahead of those drivers on the medium, and using the favored soft-medium-soft approach, and use a set of hards to run until the end:

This could also be the approach if the soft tire suffers more degradation than expected in the Grand Prix.

If a driver wanted to roll the dice on a one-stop, they are certainly welcome to do so, but the degradation is likely to close the door on such an effort.

To at least give a driver a chance at a one-stop, they could start on a set of mediums, go long on those, and then bolt on a set of hards to try and make it until the end. Ultimately, however, the degradation issues would likely be too much. In this scenario drivers that start out medium-hard could hope for Safety Car intervention — which has happened 38% of the time in the Spanish Grand Prix since 2017 — and failing such intervention, pit late for a set of softs for an all-out sprint to the checkered flag, coming in around Lap 50.

Then there is the three-stop approach used by Pérez last year. Pirelli still believes that such a strategy is “too slow,” but drivers at the back of the grid with multiple fresh sets of the C3 soft tire might at least consider that approach.

If you wanted a sense of where teams might be leaning for this race, you got it near the end of Q3.

After pumping in a lap that put him in P4 provisionally, Charles Leclerc climbed out of his SF-25 and passed on a final attempt to improve his position. He ended up sliding down the grid and will start seventh, but the team wanted to preserve options for Sunday.

“From the start of the weekend, we made a strategic decision with Charles to prioritize the race, choosing to keep two sets of Medium tires and today we also opted to keep one set of Softs for the race that had only done an out-in lap, so we decided to sacrifice some performance in qualifying,” said Ferrari Team Principal Frederic Vasseur after qualifying.

“I knew it would be a difficult qualifying,” added Leclerc. “We only had four new sets of Softs for this qualifying session compared to others who had five, but we made that choice and I think we can put up a good fight starting from P7 tomorrow. Our race pace looks good and we have a different selection of tires available to us compared to those starting around us, so we will see if our decision pays off.”

Isola also noted which drivers have similar tire combinations available.

“Three drivers, Ferrari’s Leclerc and the Haas drivers Ocon and Bearman, have saved two sets of Mediums, clearly aiming to use them in the race,” described Isola.

Here are the tire combinations each driver has available on Sunday:

Drivers with multiple sets of fresh softs — such as Nico Hülkenberg, Carlos Sainz Jr., Franco Colapinto, and Yuki Tsunoda — could consider the three-stop approach with multiple sets of fresh C3 tires, as Pérez used last year.