Assessing Tiger Woods’ chances for a comeback win at the WGC-Cadillac Championship

For the first time this year, Tiger Woods begins a Sunday final round with a realistic chance to win a golf tournament. Tiger is in position to strike, playing in the penultimate group at Doral just three shots back of Patrick Reed (the 54-hole leader of the WGC-Cadillac Championship). The wind is down at the Blue Monster on Sunday, so rounds in the mid-60s are out there for Tiger and the rest of the field. Starting three behind, with a questionable back, what’s Tiger need to do today to get his eighth win at this event (and fifth at Doral)? A win would add another week to the season theme of total unpredictability from the world No. 1.

It was just one week ago about an hour north in Palm Beach that Tiger entered Sunday off his best round of the year -- a 65 at the Honda Classic -- with longshot hopes of chasing down the leaders. While the 65 very low, it still left him seven shots back of Rory McIlroy. Given the ugly play from the top of the leaderboard there, it turned out that Tiger would have had a chance if he was able to post a better-than-average number. Of course, he withdrew early on the back nine and was pretty much done by the third hole when he sliced one 50 yards off the fairway into a water hazard.

The third round last week may have been one shot better than his 66 on Saturday at the Blue Monster, but his round this week was by far his best 18-hole showing of the year. Woods said so himself, calling it his most complete round of an otherwise-quiet year. Tiger was relatively steady off the tee, solid with his irons, and hot with the putter, rolling in birdies from 22 feet, 16 feet, and 35 feet on the back side alone. When it was over, he had canned eight birdies and rocketed back up the leaderboard just like last week.

So one day after posting the best round of the week from anyone and his personal best round of the year, what does Tiger need to do on Sunday to take his second straight title at this event? Unless we see the train wreck we got last week from the leaders, Woods will almost certainly have to shoot in the 60s again. He’s done that only three times this year on the PGA Tour. For Tiger at 1-under, the number is probably a 4-under 68 or 5-under 67 and he can’t count on Reed to come back to him.

It’s hard for Tiger to rely on the kind of hot putting he got yesterday. You just don’t roll in eight birdies and from those distances that often. So Woods will have to do what he always does, pounce on the par-5s and get those red numbers running at the holes he’s always dominated. Owning the par-5s have always been Tiger’s most reliable route to victory, and he’ll get a shot to gain some ground right at the first hole, where he made birdie 4 on Saturday. It’s just the first of 18, but it’s a huge opportunity to set the tone for contention and put a scare in the final pairing before they ever hit a shot.

Tiger then hits a stretch of three par-5s in a five-hole stretch from No. 8 to No. 12, another crucial opportunity to close the deficit before he hits the harder finishing stretch. We should know early in the back nine if Woods is on a path to get his first win of the year, and these par-5s, two of which he birdied on Saturday, are why.

Aside from the par-5s, Tiger obviously has to avoid the big numbers that lurk on almost every hole at this Gil Hanse redesign. The greens are less than a year old with no thatch, so they’re not holding much and that’s why we keep seeing balls bounce right into the drink (a record 113 on Friday alone). The trickier spots for Woods will come at No. 4, 7, 14, and then three of those four finishing holes (15,17,18). Tiger has bogeyed No. 4 in two of his three rounds here, the other being that ridiculous 92-foot birdie putt which he can’t count on happening again for another five years. So along with the birdie chance at No. 1, the bogey threat at No. 4 will be another important marker for Tiger in the first hour of his round.

It’s not a seven-shot deficit to Rory McIlroy, but the guys ahead of and around Tiger are all world-class players. Leader Patrick Reed has won twice since Tiger last won, but this is definitely the biggest stage with the most decorated group of chasers coming for him. He’s never relinquished a 54-hole lead, but this will be an entirely different test. Hunter Mahan, who will be out with Woods, has not won in two years but remains one of the best ball strikers in the world and capable of posting a number in the mid-60s if his shaky short game holds up. And then there’s Jason Dufner, probably the top competition for Tiger. Dufner was just as hot as Woods on Saturday, firing those darts into the pins that make him one of the best, if not the best in the world with irons and wedges. It’s likely he would have been matched Tiger with a round of 66 if not for a screwjob on the fourth hole, where the redesigned green could not hold a great shot and his ball unbelievably rolled off the side and into the water. That unlucky double bogey aside, Dufner still got in the house with a 68 and is one shot ahead of Woods.

The most realistic and juicy scenario is that we get Dufner-Woods duel in the final two groups of the day. The blueprint is there for both to go low, and we saw it on Saturday. Tiger said his back still felt stiff at times during his best round of the year, so that remains a question throughout his final round. I wrote earlier this week that we have no idea what to expect from Tiger right now. He was done within the first hour last week at PGA National, but it’s hard to imagine that happening again today with Tiger’s best shot at an 80th career win since last fall.