For years, the PGA Championship was hyped and promoted as “Glory’s Last Shot,” a reference to the fact that this is the last chance to win a major championship for the year. That’s fine and it’s definitely a fact. But an underrated aspect of the PGA is that it is the most unpredictable major of the year. It features one of the best fields all season (hosting 99 out of the top 100 in the world this year) and because of that, this tournament has been wildly unpredictable over the years.
Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler good bets for 1st-time major winner at PGA Championship
The PGA Championship is always the best shot for a first-time major winner, and there are a few decorated players in top form who should contend this week at Valhalla.
Stuart Franklin
Since 2000, 7 of the 14 winners of the PGA Championship were first-time major winners, including last year’s champion, Jason Dufner. That list includes names like David Toms, Rich Beem, and Y.E. Yang. Hardly a set of household names.
The conditions of the golf course also lend themselves to crowning an unlikely champion. While the first three majors of the year are all unique and difficult in their own ways, the PGA Championship often sets up more like a regular PGA Tour event. As Doug Ferguson points out, this tournament is played during the dog days of summer. More water on the course means softer conditions. Softer conditions obviously make for better scoring. If a player gets hot, hitting fairways and greens, they have a shot to go on a birdie streak that’s just no available at some of the other majors. And pretty much everyone in the top 100 at this tournament is capable of getting on a run like that.
So who are the top candidates from that major-less group to make a run at a career-definiing win? Here are some possibilities.
Sergio Garcia - If not for Rory McIlroy, Sergio would be having the best summer in the game. In his last two starts, he has finished second to McIlroy at the Open Championship and at last week’s Bridgestone Invitational. Right now, he is No. 1 on Tour in scoring average and is lights-out with the putter. As we pointed out, scoring here is going to be important. Sergio has the ability to go low and it appears he is so close to taking the next step in his career.
Rickie Fowler - In the first three majors of the year, Fowler has finished T5, T2, T2. His work with Butch Harmon has translated to incredible success this year and has Fowler in the conversation as the best American golfer in the world right now. This is the perfect time for Fowler to break through for his second career win.
Marc Leishman - Leishman fills the role of an under-the-radar player that everyone is picking as a trendy contender. He has finished top 10 in three of his last four tournaments. At 50/1 odds, he would be worth throwing a few bucks on.
Brandt Snedeker - Like Jason Dufner last year, Snedeker is a guy that has been around in major championships but has yet to finish it off on Sunday. He has been trending upwards this summer and is coming off a solid performance at the Bridgestone Invitational. He is still a good putter and ranks in the top 25 for the all-important strokes gained putting. If he can hit fairways off the tee and roll some putts, he could join Dufner as a first time major winner.
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