2014 PGA Championship picks and predictions: With Tiger Woods hurting, is it Rory McIlroy’s time again?

The season’s final major is also the most unpredictable, with a setup susceptible to low scores and the deepest field of the year capable of producing a winner down the world rankings. Rory McIlroy is the heavy favorite, dominating the second half of the summer and climbing back to No. 1 in the world. Tiger Woods is the center of some Decision-level drama-building as his Thursday morning tee time rapidly approaches. But even if a hobbled Woods can go, does he stand a chance in Louisville? The SB Nation golf staff -- Mark Sandritter, Trevor Reaske, and Brendan Porath -- address some of the major topics and players heading into the 96th edition of the PGA Championship.

Mark: For the first time in a long time, I don’t think you can say Tiger has a chance just by showing up. That used to be the case, when if he was in the field, he was among the favorites, regardless of any other outside circumstances. Now, even beyond the back injury, his game is just not major-championship caliber. No part of his last three events make me think he can string four rounds together and be a factor, if he plays at all.

Trevor: Even when he has said he was healthy this year, he seems lost. It’s kind of sad, really. If he does play, there’s no way he is 100% and he would be lucky to make the weekend. I think it is going to be a long winter of reflection for Tiger. He’ll never do it, but I am in the camp that thinks he should go back to Butch Harmon. Or someone that doesn’t regularly carry a fanny pack.

Brendan: If Tiger does show up, and that seems more and more likely given that he hasn’t WD yet and asked for an extension, he has no chance to win. Setting aside his health, his long and short game has been a mess all season. The persistent health troubles have made it much worse, and now I have no idea where we go from here because of the career-threatening seriousness of a back injury. I always thought Woods would recenter and make a run at Nicklaus’ majors record in his late 30s and early 40s. Now I’m not sure that run to just make things interesting is even there. Should we just be happy and in awe of the 14 he has won? Probably, but it’s rough watching him when he has played this year, whether it’s off the tee or up around the greens.

Trevor: How about Shane Lowry (currently 125/1)? He finished top 10 at the Open and the Scottish Open. He fits the bill as an under-the-radar guy that most (American) fans don’t know much about.

Brendan: I don’t find him personally enjoyable to root on, but I like Patrick Reed’s chances at 100/1 this week. Reed posted three rounds in the 60s at Firestone and got a T4 result against that loaded field. He’s proven himself in fields with the top players in the world, and this is the deepest of them all.

Reed has done very little since those infamous “top five” comments at Doral back in mid-March, but much of that had to do with time off for his wife’s pregnancy and the birth of his child. He couldn’t close at Congressional in U.S. Open like conditions, but this week could present a benign scoring tournament on a long, gettable course. Those are long odds for Reed after he’s gotten back on track a bit over the past month, and I like him as a darkhorse.

Mark: Kevin Na at 125/1 is moderately interesting. He’s played well since the Memorial, including a T12 at the U.S. Open. He played the weekend at 7-under last week at Firestone.

Mark: Brendon Todd didn’t fare all that well at the Open last week, but he’s still had about as good a summer as anyone not named Rory McIlroy. Even thought he’s 29 years old, this will be his first PGA Championship. I could see him sneaking into the top 10.

Brendan: My answer for the previous question would qualify as my first choice, but Todd is also an easy answer here. This is his first PGA and only his third major ever, but since the Byron Nelson, he’s had four top 10s and a win in eight starts. The PGA is renowned for producing unknown winners, and Todd is one of those prime candidates this year.

Mark: If he can keep his form from the weekend at Firestone, Mickelson surely has a chance. He isn’t likely to card a 62 on Sunday like he did then, but maybe his game is finally starting to come together. He’ll need to putt well if he’s going to have any shot.

With the way McIlroy is playing right now, picking against him doesn’t seem very wise. Just completely dialed in. It would be a disappointment if he isn’t in the mix on Sunday.

Trevor: I think we are at an interesting point of Phil’s career. His days of winning a few times a year may be coming to an end, but he still has the talent to show up on a leaderboard every once and a while. I think he will play well this week. The adrenaline of playing in a major will get him a top 10.

Rory is on the verge of a very special year. If you watched him last weekend, he was in complete control, especially with the driver. With the length of this course, he is in the driver’s seat before a ball is ever struck.

Brendan: Of course Mickelson has a chance, he’s too talented and too experienced. But I don’t think he’ll contend on the weekend. That final round 62 at Firestone was his best of the year, but it always comes and goes so quickly for Phil. This year, however, has proven to a be a stretch where he can’t put four good rounds together against the best fields in the game. Phil is in better shape than Tiger, but he’s not sharp enough and there’s too much talent around him.

Mark: Bubba Watson may be leading the money list and No. 2 in the FedExCup Standings, but he hasn’t played at that level recently. He’s coming off missed cuts at the U.S. Open and the British Open. Watson has zero top 15 finishes in his last five events and now he seems more pre-occupied by a meaningless long-drive contest than anything. A Masters victory and three MCs at the majors would be an interesting year.

Brendan: Bubba is always my answer for this question at every non-Masters major. Mark has covered why in this instance, so I’ll set that aside after watching him distract himself out of another major championship at his pre-tournament press conference.

I don’t know what to make of Jason Day right now. He just withdrew from the Bridgestone, and the wrist and hand issues seem to be career-threatening at this point. It’s so unfortunate for a guy that was always nails at these majors and seems destined to be a major champion. This was going to be a big year, especially after earning that huge WGC Match Play title in February. It was all set up. I suspect he’ll be back to his regular spot contending at all the majors again, but I don’t know what to expect from him right now because of the health issues.

A couple other big names that I don’t expect to contend are Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, two Englishmen who have had rough years at the majors and can’t seem to find any form at the game’s biggest events. We’re a long way from the time they both rose to No. 1 in the world while Tiger was down.

Brendan: I like it better than the U.S. Open because it’s less of a grind and presents the birdie chances for some movement and Sunday excitement. The tournament is more fun and features a deeper field, not reserving some 60 of the 156 spots for random qualifiers. I think the Masters is often overhyped and its self-important traditions have been forcibly cast onto the rest of us to create the most prestigious major championship. It’s a fun tournament, no doubt, but there are certainly contrived elements at Augusta.

The PGA doesn’t have the same identity as the other three, often struggling to find its place or know what it is over the course of its history. We’re no longer at the depths when this tournament lost so much luster that there was speculation over whether it deserved to be a major at all. It’s fully back as one of the top events in the game. But even if a larger audience hasn’t bitten, I don’t think it has any weaknesses, which is something a couple the other majors can’t claim. The British is my favorite, but I put the PGA right there behind it.

I’m much less fond of Valhalla, which doesn’t have a ton of history and does seem more like a contrived course created for pro golf tournaments, like a characterless TPC venue. Granted, there have been some amazing moments here in the 2000 PGA and the 2008 Ryder Cup, but I’m not crazy about the PGA owning the course and pumping up its importance in the rota. I just don’t think there’s anything special or unique about the setup, but having a major in Louisville is pretty cool.

Mark: I think it’s clearly the fourth major, but that is saying more about the other three than about the PGA. It’s a great event, it just isn’t the U.S. Open, British Open or the Masters. I like Valhalla and it should provide a tough, but fair challenge for the field. We’ll have to see just how much the recent changes impact the scoring.

Trevor: It is the fourth major by default. There is just so much history and tradition with the other majors that the PGA doesn’t really stand a chance. It has still created some memorable moments, so I think it’s fair to say it gets somewhat of a bad wrap.

Valhalla will always hold a special place in my heart as a golf fan. I grew up during the Tiger Woods era and I was 14 when Tiger won here in 2000. Seeing him walk that putt in down the stretch is one of my favorite golf memories.

Trevor: I’m hoping this one is close, obviously. It’s been a pretty boring season for the most part and I would love some late-season drama. A Rory-Sergio-Fowler duel on Sunday would be ideal, but I would settle for Bubba being DQ’d as the drama of the weekend. (I love long drive competitions by the way.)

Mark: The changes should make for a harder course than in 2000 when Woods won at 18-under. I’ll go 10-under.

Brendan: I hate, hate, hate picking the favorite and most obvious player, but Rory McIlroy has left me no choice. One of the great things about golf is that the favorite at a competition loses more often than he wins. Rory has played great golf all year, he just didn’t get the results until the BMW and then turned it on from there throughout the summer months.

No one is on his level right now, particularly off the tee where he’s obliterating that ball at just 5’9 and keeping it in play almost every time. McIlroy is going to be the favorite at these majors for several years, and he won’t always win. But based on everything that’s happened over the last three weeks, and the way this long, hot, birdie-friendly course sets up for him and the way he wins his majors, he has to be my pick to win.

Trevor: Sergio. He can only finish second to Rory so many times, right? He has been too good this year not to win something of importance. I think he finally gets it done this week.

Mark: It’s hard to pick against McIlroy with the way he’s playing right now, but I’m going with Adam Scott. Although Scott has dropped to No. 2 in the world, he still has more than enough game and is in great form. He hasn’t played much this summer, but has top 10 finishes in his last five events. That includes a win at Colonial, top fives at the Memorial and British Open, a ninth-place finish at the U.S. Open and an eighth-place finish last week. All quality fields and he’s threatened each week. In a perfect world, Scott and McIlroy battle in the final pairing on Sunday.