Ranking Rickie, Rory, and the remaining FedEx Cup field at the TOUR Championship

The most exclusive field of the year tees off in the final tournament of the PGA Tour season on Thursday at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The venue has become the home of the TOUR Championship, the fourth and final leg of the FedEx Cup. Just making it to Atlanta has become an accomplishment, as the original 125-man postseason field gets chopped down to just 30 over the first three playoff events.

Getting in the field triggers a set of exemptions to the majors and top tournaments for next season, but in the instant, it also provides every player with a chance to win the FedEx Cup and the $10 million grand prize. Some of those chances are mathematically slim. The top 5 in the standings, however, hold the coveted advantage of automatically winning the entire cup with a win at the TOUR Championship. Here’s an attempt to sort through the final 29 players in attendance this week (No. 30 Dustin Johnson will not be making the trip, although he will collect his $175K in bonus cash). Keep in mind that with a field this small, almost everyone has a chance to win this single tournament (as opposed to the Cup) based on numbers alone. But all these players are already either a world class golfer or on a streak of world class golf through the postseason.

1. Rickie Fowler (FEC Rank: 9th) -- The best American golfer in the world this summer could really use a signature win. HIs form is the best and most consistent of his career, he’s just been in the wrong spot at the wrong time on some of these Sundays. The last close call at the PGA, his best chance at a win, crushed him but he took some solace in the fact that he joined Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the only players to ever finish in the top 5 at all four majors in one year. Since June 1, his worst finish at a tournament was the T23 at the Deutsche Bank two weeks ago. In eight events, he’s got six top 10s (four in the top 5).

Fowler is a little farther down the FEC standings, so it will be tough for him to leapfrog the talent ahead of him. But he’s my top option to finally get that second career win this week, which could be good enough for the $10 million FEC title.

2. Rory McIlroy (FEC Rank: 4th) -- It’s hard not to put the No. 1 player in the world finishing the best season of his career as the the No. 1 player to win the postseason. But Rory is definitely a little wiped out at this point, and despite all the cash involved, a FedEx Cup title doesn’t have the prestige that drives these players at a major. After struggling at the start of the Barclays, McIlroy has contended at each of the last two playoff events. But he’s never really put a scare in the leaders or made a big Sunday charge.

This isn’t the same dominant force the overwhelmed the elite fields at the Open and PGA Championship, but he’s still the most talented. And given this limited-field setting, Rory might be able to make a few mistakes (or multiple four-putts) and still get away with it given his ability. He also holds one of those five auto-win spots, meaning a victory at the Tour Championship results in him automatically winning the overall FedEx Cup.

3. Jim Furyk (FEC Rank: 7th) -- After Fowler, he’ll come into the Ryder Cup in two weeks as America’s most consistent player. And yet, it’s almost four full years since Furyk won on the PGA Tour. There have been ample 54-hole and Sunday leads, and Furyk has been unable to clinch another win. The streak, and blown leads, hound him now. That last Furyk win? Right here at the Tour Championship in 2010, which netted him the $10 million. Furyk is just outside the top 5, so he’ll need outside help. But he should at least be a factor coming down the stretch on Sunday, and all those blown leads and near misses aside, he’s shown he can win on this course and at this event.

4. Sergio Garcia (FEC Rank: 13th) -- Like Fowler, Sergio is a little farther down the FEC standings but his career record and his form this season is too hard to ignore. He appeared to be the biggest challenger to Billy Horschel over the final few holes last week at the BMW Championship, until he imploded in the most Sergio-esque fashion with a triple-bogey on the 17th. He’s got nine top 10s in 15 events this year, and would have a win, or even two, if not for McIlroy’s summer brilliance. You know he’s already worked up for the Ryder Cup, so maybe he puts it together this weekend and closes in Atlanta.

5. Billy Horschel (FEC Rank: 2nd) -- Depending on how far back you want to go, Horschel is arguably the hottest player in the field coming into this week’s finale. After an underwhelming season, last year’s Zurich Classic winner turned it on in the FedEx Cup. He stood in the 18th fairway at the Deutsche Bank with a good chance to force a playoff with Chris Kirk or perhaps even eagle and pass him for the win. What followed was a ghastly chunk, his worst swing of the tournament and an ignominious end.

Undeterred, he cruised the next week to win the BMW Championship and no one really put the pressure on him on Sunday. Horschel hasn’t had the consistency of some of these players around him, but you might as well ride the streak he’s on now. His No. 2 spot in the standings also ensures he won’t need outside help to win the overall Cup.

6. Jordan Spieth (FEC Rank: 11th) -- Last year’s runner-up at this event has had a quieter summer since nearly stealing his first Masters and setting an age record at Augusta. The 21-year old has not really contended at an event since The Players back in May. Last week’s top 10 in Denver was an encouraging sign for Captain Tom Watson and the US Ryder Cup side, and his talent can’t stay hibernating for too long. I expect him to repeat some of the success from last year at East Lake.

7. Bubba Watson (FEC Rank: 3rd) -- When he’s not losing his mind, Bubba Watson may be the most naturally gifted player on the Tour. But there’s always something getting in the way of that smooth motion, and it’s usually Bubba himself. He’s a head case, to be sure, but this season has been especially bad. The narrative has changed completely around the two-time Masters champ, and he’s been repeatedly panned as petulant, a jerk, and/or a buffoon. All that aside, he’s still capable of blowing by everyone in this field and last week’s run in Denver was his first quality of week of golf since the Memorial. It’s hard to disregard his ability and he’s got one of those coveted top 5 spots in the standings to start the tournament.

8. Hunter Mahan (FEC Rank: 5th) -- Another player who had a relatively quiet summer until clinching a FedEx Cup opening win at The Barclays. Mahan started the postseason as the only player in the top 125 to have played in every single FedEx Cup event since its inception in 2007. And he needed a win to skate through to the final 30 this year. Before that win, he had a T15 at a WGC event and a T7 at the season’s final major, so things were trending upward. The Barclays win was enough for a Ryder Cup spot, and he’s dropped off the map in they intervening two events. Still, he’s No. 5 in the standings so he holds that last “control your own destiny” card and given his seven years of experience, he’s got to be a threat to finish his season off with a win.

9. Jimmy Walker (FEC Rank: 6th) -- He was No. 1 in the FedEx Cup standings for almost the entire year. Three early wins before mid-February will do that. But he lost his spot inside the top 5 after the first three legs of the postseason. That doesn’t mean he’s playing bad golf -- he’s been steady over the past month. It’s hard not to see him at least getting in the mix on the weekend with his ball-striking and season-long consistency. A Ryder Cup rookie, he may surprise the Euros in two weeks.

10. Chris Kirk (FEC Rank: 1st) -- The Georgia alum rolls to Atlanta as the No. 1 player in the FEC standings. He started the postseason at No. 10 and then his win at the Deutsche Bank, his second of this wraparound season, was enough to shoot him to the top spot. He’s ahead of Horschel by just nine points. While his season is a success by any measurement, his game had been middling at times over the summer. He’ll be a factor, but there’s a lot of talent around him and in pursuit of his top spot. I suspect Horschel will get a better result and pass him in the standings, wherever that is.

11. Martin Kaymer (FEC Rank: 14th) -- In mid-June, Kaymer looked like a German machine that was going to roll to Player of the Year honors. He’d finally got his game back, the one that pushed him to No. 1 in the world and a major title. He dominated the Players and U.S. Open, the two biggest events in a two-month span. And then he just fell off the map again, missing the cut at the PGA and finishing in last on the weekend at The Open. It was a sudden turn, and it came out later that he’d suffered a shoulder injury. After a rough July and August, things seem to be getting back to normal. He contended at TPC Boston, and then was in the final Sunday pairing last week at the BMW. I’d expect another top 10 from Kaymer this week.

12. Adam Scott (FEC Rank: 12th) -- The Aussie finally achieved the career goal of rising to No. 1 in the world this year, but he’s had a rather incomplete summer. He played in just two events during the months of June and July, the two Opens. Rory took Scott’s No. 1 ranking with his late-summer run, and also his title as the world’s best driver of the golf ball. Still, Scott just hits it too straight and too well to fall out of contention. His worst result since June is a T16. The automatic tee-to-green game has still been there all year, we just got distracted with Rory’s unbelievable show (so did Adam, who’s experimenting with new drivers to get more distance). He’s going to be inside the top 15 this week, and probably the top 10. If he wins and the current top 5 have a rough week, he’d finish on a high note with the Cup.

13. Matt Kuchar (FEC Rank: 8th) -- Much like Scott, he’s a money making machine on the Tour every single year. This season he co-leads the Tour with 11 top 10s and has 16 top 25s in 23 events played, so he’s been out there a bit more for such a big name. There were some Sunday flashes at The Barclays, but this has been a quiet postseason for Kuchar. Based on his regular work all season long, he’s inside the top 10 in the standings. The Georgia Tech alum doesn’t have a great track record in this event at East Lake, and I suspect he’ll finish the postseason quietly and somewhere in the middle with another six-figure check.

14. Jason Day (FEC Rank: 10th) -- We don’t really know what to expect from Day anymore. He should be right up there with Rory and Rickie, but another injury issue, a back problem that forced a WD last week in Denver leaves his status uncertain. That came just a month after he withdrew in Akron from vertigo symptoms. Day has also battled thumb and wrist injuries all season, but still grimaced through these events and stayed in contention. Even as he changed his grip during play at the PGA Championship, Day still managed to stay on the first page of the leaderboard and contend until midday Sunday. He started the postseason with a T2 and T7, but now with another injury, it’s hard to know where to place Day or what to expect. When healthy, he is absolutely one of the game’s elite young stars, and should be a a match for Rory for many years to come. Day is so competitive and always turns up at the major tournaments, and given his stated desire to win the playoffs, expect another run to the first page of the leaderboard this weekend in Atlanta.

15. Justin Rose (FEC Rank: 26th) -- The “hottest player in the world” titleholder in late June and early July, Rose has yet to make a dent in the FedEx Cup. He played in only two of the three events, opting to skip Boston. He has a couple top 10 finishes here in the last two years.

16. John Senden (FEC Rank: 17th) -- Played his way to a T5 finish at Deutsche Bank, and based on his season, a fine bet to be in the top half of the field this week. At 17th in the standings, however, there’s just too much talent ahead of him to be a realistic contender for the Cup.

17. Zach Johnson (FEC Rank: 15th) - He hasn’t played particularly well since the first few months of the season. He’s got the experience in this event and the postseason to be a factor, but he’s just not in his top form right now. Post a few good rounds this week and get ready for the Ryder Cup.

18. Bill Haas (FEC Rank: 16th) -- He joins Furyk as the only players in this year’s field who have won the Cup here. That’s been the highpoint of Haas’ career, that ridiculous chip up from the muddy water bank that won it in 2011. Haas wandered around for most of the season without making much impact, but he’s played much, much better over the last month. He’s gone T2-T15-T9-T16 in his last four events, so he’s looking a bit more like the player from the past couple years. But he’s too far down the standings for a Sunday miracle this year.

19. Russell Henley (FEC Rank: 20th) -- One of the best putters in the world, he’s another Georgia boy who would be a good dark horse bet to win at East Lake. The Cup, however, is a much more difficult ask from 20th in the standings.

20. Gary Woodland (FEC Rank: 29th) -- The last player into the field at No. 29 in the standings, Woodland is one of the more fun players to watch on Tour these days. He absolutely demolishes the ball off the tee, regularly putting it out there 330-plus. But it also tends to spray everywhere. He’s he had a solid postseason and a good year, but there’s no chance he wins the Cup from 29th. If the driver stays straight and his short game doesn’t implode, he should make a run at winning the season finale. The talent is there for him to jump so many of these players ahead of him in the standings.

21. Morgan Hoffmann (FEC Rank: 21st) -- The biggest Cinderella story of the 2014 playoffs. Hoffmann started the postseason ranked No. 124, the second-to-last player just to get into it. Making the final 30 seemed impossible without winning a tournament. But here he is after posting a T9 in his home state at Ridgewood, and shooting a ridiculous 62-63 on the weekend at the BMW to charge to a 3rd place finish and spot in the Tour Championship. Given his run this postseason, he should be a threat to win this week in Atalanta.

22. Patrick Reed (FEC Rank: 18th) -- He’s not had much of a summer since those two early wins at Palm Springs and Doral, where he delivered those “Top 5” comments that made him famous, or infamous. The early-season success ensured he’d always have a prime spot in the standings, but he’s now 18th and his game doesn’t seem to be in shape to threaten some of the other streaking players and elite talents in this field.

23. Hideki Matsuyama (FEC Rank: 28th) -- He should be another young gun that becomes one of those contemporaries of McIlroy. But Matsuyama, who first really made a name for himself at the majors last summer, hasn’t really done much since that playoff win at Memorial. He’s just 22-years old now and is probably going to win a lot more PGA Tour events, and maybe a FedEx Cup or two, over the next couple decades. But at 28th in the standings, he’s got no chance of winning the Cup this year.

24. Ryan Palmer (FEC Rank: 23rd) -- One of my favorite players on Tour, this Aggie has a propensity for going low, pouring in seven to nine birdies in a round and posting that low 60s number. It’s always fun to watch once he gets it going like that, and a couple of those runs have pushed him from 30th in the standings at the start of the playoffs to safely in the Tour Championship at No. 23. He flamed out in the final rounds of the Deutsche Bank after sitting on the lead at one point, and then couldn’t keep the birdie train rolling in Denver before settling for a T4.

25. Webb Simpson (FEC Rank: 22nd) -- He’s got his Ryder Cup spot, so he should be happy with the finish to his season. Simpson was the last and final pick, edging Chris Kirk in Tom Watson’s eyes. Another solid result ahead of the trip to Gleneagles would be a nice affirmation for that debatable pick.

26. Brendon Todd (FEC Rank: 27th) -- He’s here because of that red-hot stretch from mid-May to mid-July, when he had a win and five top 10s in six events. Prior to that win at the Byron Nelson, no one had really ever heard of Todd. His results since then haven’t been great, but he’s just now getting through his first full season playing major championships and in the playoffs.

27. Cameron Tringale (FEC Rank: 19th) -- Rickie Fowler’s roommate started the postseason in 61st place. A T2 finish at The Barclays put him in position to make it all the way through the playoffs, and he held on in Boston and Denver to get here. He’s another young talent who will probably win on the PGA Tour, just not this week.

28. Kevin Na (FEC Rank: 25th) -- A good guy who has had a very good season. But it’s not going to happen from 24th in the standings. He should be happy with making this exclusive field at East Lake.

29. Geoff Ogilvy (FEC Rank: 25th) -- He made the Deutsche Bank right on the number, the 100th ranked player in the standings. He nearly won it with a huge Sunday move, but a T2 finish pushed him up the standings enough to make it all the way to Atlanta. Ogilvy is not the same player he once was, but a win at the Barracuda Championship, an official Tour event opposite the WGC-Bridgestone, ended a four-plus-year drought.

30. Dustin Johnson (FEC Rank: 30th) -- Otherwise indisposed, probably not going to win this week.