The Ryder Cup is the most unique, pressurized, and fun event in golf. The Americans head to Scotland as underdogs for the 2014 edition. Europe needs only 14 of the 28 available points to retain the cup, which they have won seven of the last nine times. Here are some picks and predictions from SB Nation’s Brendan Porath, Emily Kay, Mark Sandritter, and Trevor Reaske on how things will play out over the three-day competition at Gleneagles.
2014 Ryder Cup picks and predictions: Rory McIlroy leads Europe vs. underdog US team
SB Nation golf staffers discuss some of the themes of this year’s Ryder Cup and make some predictions for the 40th edition of the game’s best event.
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Do you miss Tiger? Are the Americans better off as a team without him?
Emily: Certainly, the U.S. squad is better off without an injured Tiger Woods sending wounded quails all over Scotland and grimacing his way around Gleneagles. Even a healthy Woods, who plays lights out in the Presidents Cup, has not exactly inspired greatness in his Ryder Cup mates, what with his 13-17-3 record and membership on just one winning team (1999 at The Country Club) in seven starts.
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And despite American skipper Tom Watson saying on Monday that Woods brought “an element of intimidation” (perhaps Captain Tom was having a flashback to circa 2000), it’s difficult to imagine the 38-year-old former No. 1 making Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, or any of the Euros quake in their FootJoys. The festivities may miss Woods, whose mere presence still buoys any competition, but we subscribe to Tiger’s ex-coach Butch Harmon’s observation (according to multiple reports) that the Watson 12 will not suffer from his former student’s absence “because at this point in time he’s not the Tiger Woods we remember.”
Trevor: I will miss Tiger this year just because everything is more interesting when he is in the mix. But, given his history at the Ryder Cup (not great!), the US team is probably better off without him. Plus, he wasn’t right at the PGA Championship. I am glad he didn’t push it and allowed someone like Webb Simpson to get on the team. Oh, wait. Now I don’t know what I want.
Mark: My allegiances fall with the American side so I miss anyone who could have helped them win. That means a healthy Tiger Woods, a healthy Jason Dufner and an active Dustin Johnson. When Tiger is at his best, he’s a lot of fun to watch. The problem is he isn’t at his best and wasn’t going to be due to injury. If he was fully healthy and in form, the Americans would be better with him. I do think they are better off with him resting than attempting to find his form and health in an international competition.
Does Tom Watson have any impact, for better or worse, on this competition?
Trevor: Well he has experience captaining a team. His temperament could be great for guys like Bubba Watson and Patrick Reed who are, uh, not always rational.
Mark: The strategy of pairings comes into play some. Watson’s biggest impact was already made when he picked the alternates for the team. I think an exuberant captain can have an impact by building quick team camaraderie and getting everyone in the right mindset. Watson seems like the stoic type, so I think from here, his impact is minimal.
Brendan: I don’t know that these captains have any impact, but in hindsight, Ted Bishop going for there repeat captain and choosing Watson was probably the best move. As Colin Montgomerie termed it, “They pulled the wild car. They played the joker.” I think it’s a plus to have an older captain, especially for a team that’s been brutalized like the USA. Most of the captains are these players’ contemporaries, averaging in their mid-40s. The 65-year-old Watson is believe in Scotland and has won four of his five Opens on Scottish soil so he’s an authority figure not just for the USA side, but for everyone in the competition. If a captain can have any impact on these team events, Watson is probably one of the few.
Who or what is your biggest concern for the European team?
Brendan: Ian Poulter. I am going out on a limb here, because Poulter is working toward a resume as the greatest Ryder Cup player of all time, but he has not been good all season. Things can change and he always seems to flip into a different Ryder Cup setting, dominating as a captain’s pick in two prior Cups. But I would be nervous that the “heart and soul” of the team and one who is counted on for a few points hasn’t really been in contention at a golf tournament all year. And if the Americans can pick off Poulter when he’s out there, that’s an enormous boost to their side, one of those wins that’s worth more than the point on paper. (You can read this back to me on Sunday night after Poulter has gone undefeated again and carried the Euros to another win.)
Mark: Overconfidence? Maybe putting too much pressure on themselves to live up to the billing. They are loaded on paper and many are expecting them to breeze through. If that doesn’t happen on Day 1, maybe the pressure starts to get to them. Their resumes speak for themselves, but we’ve seen Rory McIlroy and others falter some when the mental side goes awry.
Emily: Did Rory McIlroy, who complained about the compressed season-ending PGA Tour schedule, get the R&R he needed after the Tour Championship? Can Ian Poulter, who has hardly had a stellar season, bring the Ryder Cup magic he’s known for and spark his squad to another victory?
Who or what is your biggest concern for the American side?
Mark: That they don’t get steamrolled on Day 1. The Americans are underdogs and if they are going to win it, it’s going to take three great days. Start off well, build a little confidence and get things rolling in the right direction. If the Europeans bullrush the American side on the opening day, it could be over quickly.
Trevor: Seven guys were on the 2012 team that went down in flames. Are they scarred by that? Or are they rallying together and using that defeat as motivation. Also, I am concerned how the new guys will fit in, especially Reed and Spieth. Their erratic nature is worrisome at times, and who’s going to play with Reed?
Emily: Will a clearly fatigued Phil Mickelson be able to overcome his worst professional season and bounce back to 2012 Ryder Cup form with Keegan Bradley by his side?
Brendan: I have to agree with Emily and say that it’s Phil. We all know he’s going to be out with Keegan again, and those two will again be the tone-setters for the entire two-man session. But Mickelson just had what he called the worst season of his career, unpredictably vacillating from bad to mediocre aside from that weekend run at the PGA Championship. On an underdog team, I think the Phil-Keegan pairing is the most important for the first two days and I worry that Mickelson is worn down from this awful year and will continue his struggle up on the greens.
Who will have the most awkward celebration?
Emily: Gotta go with Matt Kuchar, given the “Fresh Prince” routine he worked up with Tiger at last year’s Presidents Cup.
Mark: There are some strong candidates, but I’m going to go Martin Kaymer. He’s not the most animated guy in the world, so I’m not sure how natural an outburst will be. For someone who typically stays calm and in check, it’s not easy to flip a switch. He didn’t really know what to do with himself on No. 17 at the Players. Add in teammates and I expect some awkward high-fives, hugs, maybe a chest bump.
Trevor: Everyone. Poulter will scare everyone. Mickelson will butt slap and thumbs up everyone. Who knows what Kuchar has in store. There will be no good celebrations.
Brendan: Phil and Keegan will have the most, the best, and the worst.
Does Bubba make it through the week without an outburst?
Mark: I think he’ll do better in the two-man competitions. But it wouldn’t surprise me to see some sort of issue arise on Sunday. Too many photographers, the sun is in his eyes. He’s just trying to play golf.
Trevor: Of course not. The crowd will be hostile and Bubba is a petulant child. But (I can’t believe I am saying this) I think Bubba can feed off the energy of the crowd. He will complain about photographers, course set up, and berate his caddy. But that’s what he always does. Maybe, for once, he will be able to channel that energy into something positive. At the very least we should hope Ted Scott is allowed on the plane back to the States.
Emily: He’s Bubba. On foreign soil. Where it rains a lot. #PrayForTedScott
Brendan: This is a loaded question. To make it unanimous -- No.
Who do you expect, either as a single or a pairing, to either carry or lead the Americans?
Emily: Billy Horschel and Chris Kirk. Oh, wait...
Brendan: It’s looking like Zach Johnson and Matt Kuchar will be out together. The Phil/Keegan duo gets all the buzz and camera time, but the USA side needs Kuchar/ZJ to put points on the board through the first four sessions. Kuchar has never lost in either of the two-man games, and Johnson also has a winning record. Johnson will be without his ace ball-striking partner Jason Dufner, but given Kuchar’s success and both players’ demeanors, the two should get along fine. They’ll need Kuchar’s putter to get rolling.
Mark: If there is a guy on the American team who seems to fit the mold of an ideal Ryder Cup player, it might be Keegan Bradley. Plenty of game, but an emotional, streaky player. If he gets going right in this moment, I could see him playing very well. Some guys just aren’t built for this format. Bradley seems like a prototype for international match play.
Who do you expect, either as a single or a pairing, to either carry or lead the Europeans?
Brendan: I wrote Wednesday morning that Justin Rose is the player the American fans should fear most. Unlike Poulter, he's actually played well, contended, and won a couple times this year. He'll get paired with Poulter in the first couple days but I think he'll be the one destroying American hopes all weekend. He's got a 6-3 record, including the tone-setting comeback singles win over Phil Mickelson that turned the Medinah miracle from a faint hope into a more realistic charge. Rose can be paired with several Euros outside of Poulter, so he's their most versatile and most consistent weapon right now.
Mark: Until he proves otherwise, I’m picking Ian Poulter. There is top form and then there is the form Poulter gets during Ryder Cup week. The event brings out the best in him as evidenced by his 12-3 record in Ryder Cup matches.
Emily: McIlroy’s on a mission and Poulter’s Poulter.
The Euros are the favorites by any measure. Who takes the Cup and what’s the final tally?
Trevor: This Ryder Cup reminds me of the 2008 edition. Coming into that Ryder Cup, the US team (also without Tiger Woods) had an average world ranking of 24.75. The Euros averaged 22.16. So on paper, the Euros were a better team. The Americans have a lower average this year, but by almost every other metric and the fact that it’s a home game, the Euros a heavy favorites. So a logical person would say the US doesn’t stand a chance. But what the heck, U-S-A. U-S-A. Call me crazy but I think they pull it off and bring the Cup back to the States for the first time in six years, and win on European soil for the first time since 1993, when Tom Watson last captained the ship.
Emily: It’s wait’ll next time once again for the Americans, who will have to bring their Redemption Tour to Hazeltine.
Mark: The European team is too talented to pick against. Even if the Americans all play extremely well, I’m not sure they have enough. The Euros have a combination of great players and some -- like Ian Poulter -- who are just studs in international play. I don’t think we see a complete blowout like in 2004 and 2006, but the Europeans win by a convincing margin. Let’s say 16.5 to 11.5.
Brendan: I’m with Mark. I’ve tried to convince myself over the past few weeks that the Americans were going to win -- there’s the average world ranking stat and the Tom Watson magic we think might pop up, but the Euros are just so strong at the top (4 of top 6 in world), playing at home, and almost everyone on the team has won before and has winning records. I think they cruise 16 to 12 to win the cup yet again.
